Just that. It’s obvious. Fetterman has been playing footsie with MAGA for some time. He is certainly not a classical Republican, but he is close enough to Trump that he will switch if it tips the Senate. I don’t know if he would switch if the Dems held the Senate by more than one seat, but I doubt it. I think switching parties would completely destroy his chances of ever getting re-elected (not that he has much chance anyway).
We’ll just have to shoot for 52-48 then.
Or, since they’re defending 22 seats this year, 69-31. And I expect that to be the case. Everyone knows that it’s a sin to vote for a Republican. And Americans don’t want to be sinners, do they?
[Citation needed]
Well, they keep saying things that imply that…
I’m really not sure why Fetterman is counted as a (D) at all. It’s like the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Is anyone fooled by the name?
Does Fetterman caucus with dems still? Why would they let him?
He still votes with them the majority of the time, though the tally is ever-dropping. Still 70-80% with the Dems is vastly better than, say, Collins’ 13%. In short realpolitik favors the Democrats continue to play nice with him.
Fetterman polls better, among Pennsylvania Republicans, than the other PA senator, Republican Dave McCormick:
Here is an August poll including that question:
Fetterman viewed more favorably than GOP senator by Pennsylvania Republicans
I cannot find any polling this year going the other way.
Do you care to say why he would be a weak 2028 reelection candidate as a Republican? I’ve seen this claim made here before and am missing the reasoning.
FWIW, probably very little, Fetterman says he will not switch.
Dems look good to flip five seats, meaning a 52-48 majority. Possibly two more, despite the hundreds of millions Republicans are pouring into advertising. If they only gain four seats that’s the reason but four does seem to be the minimum.
Question for anyone: Why would Fetterman be more likely to switch parties if doing so would change party control of the Senate?
I can understand why this would be more dramatic. But I cannot understand why it would be more in Fetterman’s interest.
I might even argue the other way. If Fetterman’s move changes party control, Democrats would hate him more, and spend more money to defeat him. And the GOP embrace would get so much publicity that some low info PA centrists would forget he ever was a Democrat, losing him the November 2028 advantage of seeming to be a little bit of both parties. And changing parties when it matters less could make claims he did it out of principle, rather than to get GOP love, seem a bit more plausible to median voters.
This assumes that he runs for re-election in 2028.
The stroke left him impaired, and he’ll qualify for a pension and health insurance – which he can draw on starting at age 62 (he’s now 57) – if he serves in Congress for at least 5 years, a milestone which he would reach in January of '28.
He may well already be planning to leave office.
(bolding mine)
I admire your eternal optimistic belief in this in light of 1980, 1984, 1988, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2016, 2020 and 2024.
Fetterman doesn’t care about parties; he cares about himself. Republicans would offer him a lot for a switch, if it’d flip control of the chamber. Some of that can be done legally, like choice committee seats. Some of it might be under the table, like outright bribe money.
And of course, one of the things Fetterman wants is attention, and this would also get him plenty of that.
These are good points, but just to give another perspective:
– Fetterman hardly ever attends committee meeting, and so probably does not care about committee assigned the way a normal senator does.
– Most members of congress refuse that “outright bribe money” and I do not know of evidence Fetterman would be different.
– If he does want to win a 2028 primary, party leadership cannot hand it to him. Only the GOP rank and file can plausible get him that win, and they won’t change their minds based on what party control was before the Fetterman switch.
I suspect that, compared to most members of Congress, Fetterman is not nearly as well-off financially. His family apparently has some money (his father was a partner in an insurance firm), but he’s spent most of his career working in public service jobs, and running non-profits; his wife is also a non-profit executive and political activist.
I don’t know if he’d take outright bribes, but given that he has several serious, chronic health conditions, the incentive to step aside and take his pension (and the continuing Federal health insurance) may be attractive to him.
It would not be. Fetterman may announce he is now Independent, but caucus with the Dems like Sanders does. This is possible.
As I proved in another thread. Fetterman almost always votes along with the Dem Party leaders.
His net worth estimate is ranked 76 out of 100 in the Senate.
Because that’s when the bidding starts.
Let’s say the Republicans win a 52-48 majority. They don’t care all that much about improving it to a 53-47 majority so they won’t offer Fetterman much to switch parties.
The same is true if the Democrats win a 52-48 majority. The Republicans won’t care if they’re in a in 51-49 minority instead so they won’t make any major offers to Fetterman.
But if the outcome is 51-49 or 50-50 then Fetterman’s defection could change control of the Senate. So the Republicans will bid to get him and the Democrats will bid to keep him.
OK, so maybe committee assignments aren’t the big incentive for him. But the point is, there’s something he wants. I don’t know him well enough to say exactly what it is, but whatever it is, the Republicans can offer it to him (legally or illegally).
Unless he is personally corrupt in a directly financial way, I do not see that a real auction can take place.
In theory, I guess the Republican National Committee could change its bylaws to favor a Fetterman primary run. But this would create a backlash that would hurt Fetterman’s prospects. Plus they could always change the bylaws back, and Fetterman would know that’s possible.
With a normal senator, the currency could be committee assignments, but I doubt that would buy Fetterman.
Is this a serious question?
If Collins wanted to caucus with the Democrats and it was the difference between Democrats being the majority vs the minority in the senate, I’d gladly let her.
And bribery is a serious federal & state crime, and a lot of money mysteriously appearing would be investigated- at least by Congress if not the State authorities.
And again- Fetterman almost always votes against what the GOP wants- unless the Dem leadership is going along with the GOP for bipartisanship.
In no world is Fetterman a closet Republican. Maybe an Indy.