I did forget about the Supremes - I could easily see them striking down DOMA, but the anti-SSM laws in other states, I’m not so sanguine about. But now that it has been mentioned I do think it is more possible for marriage equality to happen by the end of the decade than I did before.
I might be wrong, but I don’t think the Supreme Court is even considering anything as widespread as making same sex marriage legal in all states. I thought the best that could come of it would be allowing any same sex couple,* married in a state where same sex marriages are legal*, would then have all federal legal rights.
In other words - if all goes well, a same sex couple in Alabama would have to go to one of the states where same-sex marriage is legal, get married there, and then they could return to Alabama and fill out federal tax forms and have all the legal rights - but still not have legally gotten married in Alabama.
Full faith and credit is going to be hard to get around, though. So is incorporation - the 14th Amendment applies to the states, too, and if the Supremes rule it’s violated by denying SSM’s equal protection, then the states aren’t still going to be able to do it.
States have always been allowed to ignore marriages made elsewhere in contradiction to their own laws. FF&C is not going to automatically make states recognize gay marriages from other states.
AIUI, the USSC isn’t even looking at Section 2 of DOMA, which is the one that says that states don’t have to recognize other states’ marriages.
They’re looking at Section 3. If they strike that down, then couples legally married will be able to take advantage of all of the Federal benefits of marriage.
I think the hope for forcing things by FF&C is to get enough states to legalize that you start seeing a lot of contradictions in practice. Gay couples not allowed next-of-kin rights when on vacation, that sort of thing.
I’d love (for legal purposes only) to see multiple marriages that are legal due to differing jurisdictional laws. You know, two men married in one state that recognizes gay marriage, then one moves to a different state that does not. Now he can marry a woman, since his first marriage doesn’t count. Hijinks ensue. (Yeah, probably folks aren’t willing to go that far just to prove a point, but it would be fun to watch the heads asplode.)
The basis for striking it down would in all probability be equal protection, though. Why would you think that doesn’t cover the states? FFC is only a backup argument.
Marriages not polygamous or incestuous, or otherwise declared void by statute, will, if valid by the law of the State where entered into, be recognized as valid in every other jurisdiction. P. 292 U. S. 223.
Good for Rhode Island and Delaware. Here’s hoping Minnesota can also get it done this year.
Going forward might be difficult though. I see only 9 more states where SSM polls over 50%. Four of them do not have it banned by constitution. I expect Hawaii will get it done in 2014. Maybe Illinois and Pennsylvania can get it done. But New Jersey is out until Chris Christie goes away or they get a veto proof majority in the legislature.
Of the others California might be back depending on the Supremes. Wisconsin, Oregon, Nevada and Colorado would require an amendment to allow SSM. And that can take years. In Nevada even if the current proposal gets passed, it won’t go to the voters until 2016 at the earliest. Likewise I don’t see Colorado passing an amendment this year. Maybe we can get it done in 2014.
After that it gets really slim. New Mexico maybe can get it done in a few years. Everywhere else there are either significant legal barriers or not enough support. Barring a sweeping Supreme Court ruling or a national amendment, I unfortunately would have to bet against a majority of states allowing same sex marriage by 2020. :mad:
This is right on. If a state doesn’t allow, but the court rules that the FF&C clause forces them to recognize marriages from other states, it will not matter too much. But it would take a supreme court decision by an ultraconservative court and I don’t see that happening any time soon. I have predicted, and I repeat it, that they will uphold CA Proposition 8 and strike down DOMA, both on essentially states’ rights grounds. DOMA is especially vile and congress won’t repeal it any time in the foreseeable future.
The House was the rocky bit. The Senate is expected to pass it without issues and Dayton seems very clear that he’ll sign it should it come to his desk. The vote is on Monday, which I am told bespeaks a strong expectation it will pass.
Oh fer fuck’s sake, people, this isn’t even arguable. I mean, you can find arguments that the Supremes should interpret FFC to require cross-state marriage recognition, but no one who knows anything about the subject tries to claim that they have in the past or that they are required to do so now.