I couldn’t be happier about this! Two more states in 5 days.
Enlightenment is becoming reality. I’m predicting equality in all 50 states by the end of the decade.
Nope. It will be in all the blue states and most of the purple states, and perhaps a handful of the red states, but all 50, not a chance, unless it is by Congressional law, and that would only happen if there is a huge swing away from conservatism in conservative districts.
There will continue to be such a swing in the rest of the country, and in polls on this issue, and also in general elections, I predict that the percentages will eventually poll around 60-40 in favor of the more liberal position (rather than just around a 2 point edge, I think, in both cases.)
But districting means that those opposed to this will keep it from being law for as long as they can, and the eventually overwhelming opposition will just encourage them (“look at how they’re oppressing me! Gimme money!”)
Let’s check in with each other on January 1st, 2020. I’ll say I told you so then. 
Definitely. I want to be wrong so it’s a win win for me.
As a liberal from the deeply red, deeply religious state of Alabama I just don’t see it being approved here at a state level. There’s just too much bigotry. A constitutional ban on mixed race marriages wasn’t repealed until 2000 for goodness sake. (As an aside Alabama’s constitution is a complete mess. The longest in the nation, it has amendments repealing amendments that repealed amendments. It’s time to scrap the whole thing and start over.)
Unfortunately, I gotta agree with ** Ludovic**.
The only way this is going to be in all 50 states is either a Supreme Court ruling or Congress actually asserting that the Full Faith and Credit clause actually means something.
In the deep south, you’d have to wait for enough of the old conservatives to die off (and pray that the younger conservatives won’t be homophobes) and that will take 2-3 decades.
Or Supreme Court decision which could make it so this Summer.
Minnesota is looking like it might be #12 (and getting in before the triskadecaphobic folks)
OK, so it’s impossible. But guess what? We’re accomplishing the impossible. There’s just too much momentum for it to stop now.
Famous last word as we go off the cliff. Don’t jinks it.
It’s so rare when my state is in the news and it’s not something embarassing. Of course once again Delaware tries to horn in on the small state news.
Anyway, time is tight, better get your reservations in if you want a Newport wedding this year.
Yeah, there are a fair number of states where this isn’t gonna happen any time soon.
I’m hoping that enough states will pass it to put some pressure on the FF&C issue. Because that’s not a given, y’know.
Ten years ago same-sex marriage was unavailable in all 50 states; and it didn’t really look like same-sex marriage was going to happen any time soon (hello Civil Unions). But a year later same-sex marriage was dawning in Massachusetts. The court ruling was in and its effect was imminent (the 9 year anniversary is on 17 May).
Much has changed in the past 9 years. So 7 years into the future is a long time for even more shifts. I have no idea where I would bet, but banking on all 50 isn’t that crazy a thought. One year ago, it would have been NUTS! But now, not so nuts. And next year? Hopefully even less nuts.
I’d be highly surprised if the Supreme Court ruling next month doesn’t strike down anti-marriage laws in the remaining 39.
If it doesn’t, then I doubt we’ll see it in all 50 states within my lifetime.
I hope you live past 2020!
It doesn’t really matter that much if a couple of states are holdouts as long as marriages are recognized between states. It’s actually advantageous in some ways, life won’t be the same if we don’t get to laugh at Alabama.
Don’t take this post too seriously, I don’t know what the hell states have the right to regulate marriage for in the first place.
Because of all the legal and contractual rights and responsibilities that go along with it.
With DOMA and Prop 8 struck down, as seems to be likely, it happens as soon as next month.
Though they will be the laughingstock redoubts (“If two women in Alabama are sisters, are they still not allowed to get married?”)
I can see that part of it (but don’t agree with it), but why should states get to decide who can marry on an arbitrary basis? Can they do that with other contracts between people? Can they say I can’t buy a house from you because of my sexual orientation or religion?
Over the weekend I was bored, so I added up the populations of the states that have already passed such laws and found that it amounted to only about 16% of the total population. Even if I added California’s population it was still quite low. I thought perhaps more than half the states by population do this, it might change nationally.
There’s an interesting article by Nate Silver from a couple of months ago: How Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Is Changing, and What It Means. He predicts that by 2020 marriage equality will be supported by a majority of the people in 44 states, even down to Texas and Oklahoma. Of course the political process lags behind public opinion, especially when constitutional amendments are involved.
On another note, looking at his table of state-by-state support: what’s up with Hawaii? It has the fourth highest public support for marriage equality of any state, and yet there seems to have been no move towards legalizing it. (Although Hawaii does have a constitutional amendment, it doesn’t directly ban SSM but allows the legislature to do so; so it could be reversed by ordinary legislative action.) Is it something to do with the state being so solidly Democratic that marriage equality can’t be used as a wedge issue to increase Dem support?