[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
I’m assuming that this new law applies to all developers. In which case you wind up with a higher-priced good, and somewhat smaller demand for it. Absent regulation, the developer doesn’t just increase his price because there are competitive pressures that prevent this.
[/quote]
No, you don’t necessarily end up with a higher priced good. First off, you are assuming a free marketplace, which simply isn’t the case for real estate. Second, even after regulation competitve pressures still exist to keep the price down. I repeat, if developers could simply raise their price and get more money, they would have done so already. Forcing them to provide low income housing doesn’t simply give them a liscense to raise prices.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
If the 1.5 million is a small enough amount that the developer can just absorb it, then it’s possible that that’s what will happen. It’s also possible that it will cause the developer to seek out projects in areas that don’t carry this burden. Without knowing the exact financial situation of the region and the profit margins of the developers and the availability of other projects that don’t fall under this regulation, who knows?
[/quote]
I think I know. South Florida is one of the hottest real estate markets in the country. Things would have to change drastically for any developer to consider leaving the area.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
In fact, often in these situations we don’t know what the ultimate effect will be until the law is passed and a new equilibrium is reached. It’s that law of unintended consequences again. You may find that putting a 1.5 million dollar tax on certain types of housing projects just causes them to not be built at all.
[/quote]
Well this fact certainly hasn’t stopped you from telling us exactly what would happen.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
The assumption underlying this type of legislation is that the developer can just pony up 1.5 million out of profits and everything ticks along as before. But this is not the case.
[/quote]
It certainly could be the case, and you have presented nothing to show that it can’t or isn’t.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
On the margins, where the changes happen, there will be an effect on development. Maybe some developers have especially lucrative contracts that allow them to swallow the added overhead. But others might not. Some developers may not have any other oppotunities, but maybe another developer had to choose between two projects, and they chose this type of housing project because it had an additional profit - but not 1.5 million worth. That developer may choose to now leave the market entirely.
[/quote]
Sure he might, but if you design the law intelligently you ought to know if he will or not. Its not as though real estate is an incredibly thin margin business where one nudge will send a developer to the poor house. Regardless, the point is not that this is a magic bullet that has no possibility for failure. The point is that your dire warnings about market distortion and the disasterous effect thereof does not necessarily apply.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
And not all suppliers are equally efficient, or have equal profit margins. Some companies operate right on the margin. Raise the cost of doing business to them, and they’ll simply leave the market. Then you lose supply.
[/quote]
Probably not. If there indeed is a developer teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, and this law sends him over the edge then one of the more efficient suppliers you mentioned will take over the defunct developers market share.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Demand remains unchanged? That would imply that there’s no one out there who needs the subsidy to be able to afford to live in these houses. The whole purpose of the subsidy is to bring new people in, isn’t it?
[/quote]
Of course not. The point of low income housing is to enable working class people to afford housing, not attracted new residents.
Anyways, like I said in that scenario the law is designed in such a way that the effect on demand is negligible.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
And if he’s only making 1 million? And you put a 1.5 million tax on him? Or if he’s making 5 million, but another project in another state could have been done for a 4 million profit, where’s he going to go when you add 1.5 million to his costs?
[/quote]
If all your developers are at this point, then putting a 1.5 million dollar tax on them is a pretty silly thing to do. Again, the point is that these gloom and doom scenarios do not necessarily apply. If you design the law in such a way avoid these pitfalls then the end result will most likely be that developers simply continue on as they were, but at slightly reduced profits.
I don’t know why you brought up all of these objections becuase I went over them in my post.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Here in Canada we’ve got a perverse incentive system for seniors in retirement. There are all kinds of social programs available for retired people including subsidized housing. But they’re not intended to apply to the wealthy, so any retirement income you make is clawed back one-for-one against these programs. Income, for instance, from retirement savings. The result is that people who save between 0 and 100,000 in RRSP’s are considered ‘futile savers’. 100% of their retirement income is clawed back to cover their seniors’ benefits, meaning they have no standard of living increases over those who saved nothing at all.
Then the government wonders why people aren’t saving for retirement…
[/QUOTE]
What evidence do you have that people are actually following this perverse incentive? I seriously doubt anyone is saying “Screw saving for retirement, I want to be poor when I retire to take advantage of this Government program.”