Here it is folks.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,186660,00.html
I’d like to be the first to nominate IT for the “Biggest Flop of the Decade”.
I don’t think so.
I have a very good feeling that this thing is going to be nearly as big as they think.
I just can’t wait to try one!
I think we all SHOULD buy one. The inventor seems quite the genius. I’m afraid if it does flop he’ll get pissed off and invent a way to kill us all. I bet he’s brushing up on his maniacal laughter just in case.
Impressive invention, unimpressive potential.
TIME magazine put a reporter on this for four months and did not come back with particulars. What does the 8,000-lb. model look like? How much power will it have. How much can it carry? All we get are cute ancedotes, puffery from Steve Jobs, and no details. Puffery, but, then TIME is known for its mindless puffery of any advances in technology.
This is not going to change city designs. There will always be a need for large vehicles: trucks to bring in and deliver goods, cars for people to get out of town with. So where will Ginger go?
This thing cannot be pushed over? How about pushing along the axis of the axle? That sucker’ll go over easy.
And how long will the technology last under heat and cold conditions? Water? Ice?
Ladies and gentlemen, TIME gives you the $100 million dollar Edsel.
You read it here first.
Bill Peschel
I have no problem accepting the idea that this could create a market for personal transport in cities. I can’t, however, see hordes of these things weaving around pedestrians on the sidewalks if they can operate at up to the claimed 17mph, nor can I imagine them sharing city streets with much larger vehicles. In both cases, the potential for injury-causing accidents is far too high. Thus, widespread adoption is not likely to occur until dedicated roadways are available (I suppose existing bike lanes will do for a start).
It’s also unclear at this point just how this device is going to be commercialised: is the technology to be licenced to existing vehicle manufacturers, or are Kamen, et al, attempting to set up a manufacturing operation of their own?
In any event, the automobile itself took at least three decades to really start catching on. Still waiting to see the product, but I’ll straddle the middle here. Not the death of the car, not an utter flop, but a niche personal transportation device that will probably find some popularity in areas where its advantages can be maximised.
Oops, upon looking at the article again, it seems they will be building it themselves rather than licensing.
Old news … or just two threads on the same topic.
Channeling Roseanne Roseannadanna:
“Mr. Peschel, you sure ask a lot of questions.”
First off, it’s not 8,000 pounds. That’s $8,000 for the heavy duty model.
Is this thing overhyped? Probably. Does it have limitations? Certainly. But could it be a part of the solution to controlling traffic congestion? Possibly. Assuming that a good portion of car trips within a city are solo drivers going a few miles, this might have useful application, in that it holds enough of a charge to travel about 17 miles.
I just read another report about a similar ultra-cool vehicle. It goes almost 20 miles per hour, and uses gyroscopic forces to keep it upright, just like Ginger. Only, this device only weighs about 30 pounds, you can sit down when you ride it, and you can put saddlebags on it to carry your briefcase and an umbrella when it rains. It’s also about 1/10 the price of IT. Furthermore, unlike IT, it doesn’t even need a battery. I think it’ll make the automobile in the city obsolete.
It’s called the ‘bicycle’. The motorized version gets over 100 mpg, and can go a lot farther than 17 miles, and a lot faster than 17 mph. It’s called a ‘moped’.
Just what am I missing here? What will this thing do that a bicycle or moped won’t do better and cheaper? I’ll give you the special scenarios - large factories, perhaps postal workers - anything that puts a heavy demand on low-speed manoeverability. But a replacement for the car on city streets? I’d rather have the moped, unless there’s something about this device I don’t get.
Ok, I’m watching GMA as the presenters tool around on Segways right now. I think it’s gonna be a monster after all, at least in good-weather areas. There are a couple of clear advantages over a moped, including a much smaller footprint and no gasoline engine. The wheels are large enough to allow reasonable performance on moderately rough terrain. These pluses are offset by a short range (tho’ 15 miles per charge is certainly usable for short daily commutes) and apparently highly complex electronics.
Despite Kamen’s optimism, no way are these going to be allowed on sidewalks at anywhere near their full rated speeds, as collisions between two riders each going 15 mph, or between one of these machines and a pedestrian, will be at least as, if not more, dangerous than similar accidents involving bicycles. Maintenance costs and durability remain unanswered questions, but they always are with new technology.
The thing that really sells it, though, is that it looks like bags of fun. It appears there is almost no learning curve, and there is something weirdly compelling about the sight of standing people quietly rolling along on these things.
And it looks like they’d be a hoot to race.
I want one.
I’d like one too, but I have a hard time justifying $3K for a motorized scooter.
I don’t expect to see a huge impact in the US due to the safety and convenience issues. On the other hand, I can see a lot of specialized applications where they’d do well. The problem is the limitation on movement, you have to put it in the car to get to a place where you can use it effectively. Considering that, I’d envision its most popular uses coming from commercial fleets or as daily rentals, like at amusement parks.
In Europe and the far east where cars are not so entrenched, I think it’ll take off big though. And when the price comes down, there’ll be a huge market in China and other places that are already bicycle-friendly.
It’s ironic, this is something that I (and probably a lot of other people) have long dreamed of, a relatively inexpensive, non-polluting alternative to cars in cities and now that it’s here, we can’t help but find fault with it.
I was always under the impression that it was able to fly. Now I’m very let down. Oh well.
Nah. That’ll never catch on.
Kamen’s been reading up on his demographics. Find lots of rich people with too much useless money, who are too fat and feeble to walk from their car to the mall, and give them a little scooter-jobbie to tootle around on.
Looks like the PERFECT device for soon-to-be retiring boomers. They’re gonna sprout like mushrooms.
Sixty-five pounds? And this thing is supposed to be conveinient? I can’t wait for all of the lawsuits that will crop up when pedestrians start getting hit by these things.
I think that the Segway will, at least in the U.S., be relegated to “rich people’s junk catalogs”–Harrington’s, Haumacher’s, etc.
I’m keeping my bike, thanks.
Actually I read something in a Scott Adams book (of Dilbert fame). Basically he says you should ideally market your products “stupid rich” contigent–smart people won’t buy your poor product ideas and poor people can’t afford it.
At the $2,000-$3,000 price range, this is doomed to fail on the American consumer market. I agree with the general sentiment: it is basically a powered bicycle, cool, but nothing more than a novelty. If I can buy (and repair) a bicycle for less, why wouldn’t I? (And that is why it will fail where bikes are already prevalent.)
Yes, I can understand where there might be applications for it, but once the “Oooh” factor is gone… Unless the price drops 70-90%, IT will not last long.
And so IT goes…
I’d buy IT for a dollar!
I also think y’all may be taking the narrow view.
What I find extremely impressive is that it seems to be an expansion of the technology introduced by “Fred,” the Kamen-invented wheelchair. Specifically, he has taken huge strides in the technology of balance, one of the thorniest of all problems facing robotics. The remarkable thing is not the scooter itself, but the fact that it represents the ability of a vehicle to instantly react to stimuli, especially while moving.
The applications of this technology are endless. Remember the human-powered construction machines on “Aliens?” Human-responsive machinery is already out there, but the balance has always been lacking.
How about a lower-body prosthesis for victims of paralysis? Suddenly, they can “walk” again.
How about powered environmental suits for people who work in hazardous environments?
I can think of a few uses for a vehicle that instantly corrects its own balance.