There are all kinds of rumors about an exploding meteorite over Cuba, but so far all the reports I can find are on questionable sites. Anyone see anything about this from a reputable source?
For a modest outlay (~US$8B) we could easily deploy a constellation of observatories (based upon existing spacecraft bus and optical scanning technology) that would orbit the Sun between Venus and Earth which would be capable of seeing and cataloguing with high precision the orbits of the vast majority of potentially hazardous objects (PHO) e.g. nearly all asteroids, the larger centaurs and loose trojans, et cetera. Currently, the only dedicated observation of PHO is from terrestrial observatories, and because of the relatively narrow field of view between the Sun and such objects throughout most of their trajectories as observed from the Earth’s surface, we can only see such objects for small fractions of their orbits.
As for stopping or deflecting such threats, while it is true that there is no existing system which has this capability or can be readily adapted to deflect a PHO, there are a number of schemes which may be used to effect such a change given a couple of years of lead time. The main problem is that you can’t just blow up a PHO or mount a rocket to it to push it to the side; many PHOs are actually multiple objects loosely cemented together and if they break up while attempting to deflect they just become multiple fragments on essentially the same trajectory that now pose a more spread out hazard. You have to be able to redirect the entire mass–solid or loose–into a new orbit that does not affect the Earth or its surroundings.
My own proposal is to use a nuclear fission device to heat a puck of polystyrene material to plasma temperatures, which would be directed at the object in order to apply a relatively gentle distributed impulse to shove the entire mass into a new orbit. The basic concept is similar to how a fission Primary is used to compress the Secondary in a thermonuclear weapon. This is obviously a novel application that would require considerable engineering effort to develop and delivery, but it is in no way beyond the state of the art to develop this. Based upon some preliminary studies I’ve done, it would be possible to launch a maneuvering spacecraft carrying a fair number of these devices (10-20) on an existing launch vehicle like a Delta IV Heavy, Ariane 5, or the forthcoming Falcon Heavy. The total impulse of all of the devices (assuming a 10% efficiency factor, derived from some of the calculations on the Project ORION vehicle) would be capable of redirecting a PHO of up to 500 m in diameter without significantly dispersing the PHO field. Such a capability could be developed for ~US$10B using largely off-the-shelf technology, and deployed for ~$2-3B per single mission.
Note that this isn’t just crucial for protecting the surface of the Earth and its inhabitants, but may also provide protection to orbiting satellites and facilities that are even more vulnerable to impacts, especially from large dispersed fields of objects. Given that the loss of a single high value satellite is on the order of US$1B (including end-to-end replacement costs) and damage to any densely inhabited area on the Earth’s surface by a large (>50 m diameter) bolide would likely be on the order of tens of billions of dollars, it is clearly worthwhile to develop and deploy both a solar orbiting constellation of observatories and at least have an interception system ready in the wings (and obviously under international control to allay concerns about any one country possessing a space-based weapon system).
Stranger
Okay, Stranger, when I win the ten-billion-dollar lottery, I’m hiring you. 
I read about the Cuba blast last night, but nothing today. It happened around 20:00 in Cuba, which would have been 07:00 in Chelyabinsk. Not the same meteor, but I don’t see why it couldn’t have been shortly before the Earth’s gravity pulled it in two or something.
Those dashcams are cool. Why haven’t Americans picked up the habit? I want one, and another facing backwards since fraudsters love catching you backing up too.
I’m impressed Russian drivers weren’t driving off the roads. I think I would have.
Everyone knows the difference between meteor and meteorite. Papers have been really sloppy about this time.
I hope this boosts funding for some sort of space danger reconnaissance agency or something. I know large extinction-sized asteroids only hit very rarely, but politicians are generally science and reading challenged and easily spooked. Anything that gets more space funding!
We’re all going to die, we’re all going to die!!! C’mon guys, join in.
Cool video, thanks for sharing. Happy Valentines day, Der Trihs.
What is the link for the Onion’s “Russians don’t give a f–k”? I can’t find it.
It’s not The Onion; it’s Cracked.
(Cracked was a second-rate imitator of Mad Magazine when I was a kid; it’s nice to see that they’ve hit their stride in a new niche of list-based comedy on the net…)
Near the end, this Toronto Star article mentions reports of bright lights in the sky over Cuba and San Francisco.
Has nobody noticed a peculiar similarity?
Pictures of Hole Punched in Ice on Russian Lake by "meteorite:
Images from the 1951 science fiction film *The Thing (from Another World) *, after a “meteorite” falls to earth:
I think we all know what happens next.
Ah, thank you, Sir!
I have fond memories of Mad and Cracked as well.
Oh crap.
This is gonna be worse than the Walking Dead.
Dammit.
I love science. This is such a cool event, though obviously not for the Russians.
The Onion did do a story, but with a different take - a well deserved jab at all of us oohing and aahing at the cool videos while largely ignoring the disastrous effects on the local populace.
More Than 1,000 Russians Injured In Freaking Coolest Event Ever
I was just listening to the clip shot outside the factory. They were talking about the sonic boom, how the thing had come out of the Sun, and whether it might have been associated with the asteroid fly-by.
With all the broken windows I suspect those Russians are a little too cool in fact. It’s the middle of winter! Hope the boarding up/replacement can be done quickly.
Hmmm, “Carbonaceous Chondrites hate fags!”?
I don’t know if it’s the case with the videos you’ve seen, but keep in mind that the apparent velocity depends on the path angle relative to the observer, that is to say, it the meteoroid (do I get a cookie?) is moving perpendicular to the observer it will appear to move faster than if it’s moving further towards or away.
It’s very hard to judge distances of far objects and their paths, specially if there’s no reference points as with an object up in the sky.
Honest question: What’s the resolution on those sensors?
Can they detect a 150ft from rock millions of miles away?
For objects with a high or variable albedo they may be able to detect the reflected sunlight from the object. For objects with low albedo, they can observe occlusions where thr object passes in front of a planet or star. These are the same techniques used to (optically) detect extrasolar planets, which is several orders of magnitude more difficult. The advantage of solar orbiting observatories inside of Earth orbit, however, is twofold; one is that they have the sun at their backs (so to speak) and therefore have the best aspect to see reflected light, and they can also maintain consistent tracking of objects for weeks or months, whereas a terrestrial observatory can only maintain tracking of objects within the plane of the ecliptic for at best 14 to 16 hours (at high latitiudes durung winter months) and more typically 6 to 10 hours (at the equator). Much of the difficulty is the initial identification the body; once a track has been established it is relatively simple to pick out even a dim body from the background by looking for predicted occlusions.
Statistically, we can evaluate how many untracked objects are out there by looking at a trend of increasing observatory resolution and anti-aliasing processing of images versus objects found. I haven’t seen a recent calculation, but about ten years ago the estimate was that approximately 2% of near Earth objects (NEO) of 200 m or less in their largest aspect were tracked and only a fraction of a percent of objects under 140 m were tracked, not to mention long period coments and rogue centaurs and trans-Neptunian objects (TNO) that don’t produce a visible tail. Objects down to 50 m pose potential hazard to people and structures on the surface, so while the incidence of impact is low, there are non-trivial odds are that a significant impact event (>150 m) will occur in our lifetime (~1%) which will result in regional destruction comparable to the largest hurricane or tsunami ever seen. An outlay of < US$20B to avert tens or hundreds of billions of dollars worth of damage (at minimum) ought to be a no brainer.
The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope program has an excellent page on Near Earth Objects and a more current estimate of the population (scroll down to the figure entitled “Potential Damage To Earth From NEO Impact”. This telescope will be the absolute state of the art in terrestrial-based optical observation and approaches the absolute capability of observation from the ground, but it still has some significant limitations.
Stranger
I see an earlier version of this was posted in 2011, but it’s worth watching again now. Note how the numbers in the lower left-hand corner spiral up over the years…
That’s neat.
Science reporters like pointing out that a lot of these large and passing close to Earth asteroids we’re finding have very recent discovery dates. How many more don’t we know about and which one has Earth’s name on it?
A large object from outside the solar system could come swinging through and kick up a late late bombardment anytime too.