Military not following illegal orders-How reliable is that?

I’m reminded of the many YouTube videos where someone is detained by the police and they’re going on and on demanding the officer explain his “reasonable articulable suspicion” for the stop. It is true that an officer needs to have reasonable articulable suspicion (RAS) to justify the stop, but it is not required that the officer explain his RAS to the person detained. He doesn’t need to explain anything to the suspect. He only needs to be able to document it in a report and/or explain it in court later.

Similarly, those ordering the strikes need only to have a legitimate military objective for the attack. But they don’t need to explain that objective to every curious person on the internet. I have no doubt a plausible military purpose can be stated when and where it becomes required. Justifying it in this case would be trivially simple.

I’ve witnessed strikes where the target engagement authority is about to order a drone to fire its missile at a target, and he’s rapidly conversing with all the advisors in the room, to include the representative from JAG. Time is of the essence, but he still needs to get input from everyone about collateral damage assessments, military necessity, advantage gained, etc. Among these things is “positive identification”. The vast percentage of people in the room don’t even have the complete picture, because their Security Clearance or Need-to-Know doesn’t allow it. There are a half-dozen people in the kill chain from the General Officer to the lowly airmen stateside about to press the button that fires the missile. None of these people even know who or why they are about to attack this target (kill this human being). They only need to trust there is a lawful reason. They don’t need to know what that reason is. I watched a JAG lawyer say, “I’m not confident we have positive ID on this person. How do we know it’s the person we think it is.” Only to be told, “We know 100% it’s him. We can’t tell you how we know, but we know.” Then he just says, “Well, if you have PID, then I have no objections.” And there lies the grey area with these types of things. It’s not as clear cut as illegal orders vs. legal orders.

Just following orders is not a defense. Ignorance of the law is not a defense. BUT ignorance of the facts, is absolutely a defense. If a Soldier is ordered to blow up the hospital because some classified intel says it’s a legitimate military target that has lost all its Geneva protected status due to its use in military activities, its destruction is a military necessity offering a significant tactical advantage and the loss of civilian life is within the acceptable bounds of proportionality… it’s not an illegal order. The officers and soldiers given that order are going to carry it out. If the facts turn out to be wrong, or an outright lie, that’s not going to fall back on them unless they actually knew or should have known it was a lie or otherwise false (and it can be proven that they knew or should have known it to be false). Just like the guys carrying out drone attacks. They often don’t know who they are shooting or why. Other people are telling them that it’s legitimate, legal military targets and all requirements are met. All of that info is often so compartmentalized that the person flying the drone and the person controlling the cameras on the drone, and the person shooting the missile from the drone, and the person ordering the missile to be fired, all of these people sitting in different parts of the world have none of the details required to determine if the strike is actually a war crime or not. This one aircraft is being controlled by teams of people thousands of miles apart who have never met each other, and none of them have any idea who or what they’re about to destroy. That knowledge belongs to the people who actually built the dossier on the target, the people who identified the target, etc. They’re not sharing all of their classified info with all of the other people. They’re just sharing what’s necessary for the Target Engagement Authority to give the order to fire. Everyone else in the kill chain have to trust that all the legal requirements have been met. Everything is compartmentalized. And all of this happens in minutes. Sometimes seconds.

So, like I said, it’s not as easy as someone being given an order such as, “Hey, LT! Go blow up that hospital. While you’re at it, go blow up the church and torture some nuns.” It’s much more nuanced.

But all the reporters and lawyers can get easy attention by making statements like, “Trump might be committing a war crime. His actions may be illegal.” Maybe. But they also might be completely 100% legal. It all depends. Even the wording in the Geneva Conventions leaves it open to debate. There is no mathematical formula for determining proportionality. There is no scale for determining military advantage. Who’s to say if the targets meet the threshold or not? Certainly not the Soldier on the ground. Obvious things, yes. Everything else? No way.

Blowing up a power plant is not presumed to be illegal the way bombing a Red Cross compound is. Purposely destroying a bridge is not presumed to be a war crime like purposely destroying a hospital. It can be in some situations. But in most situations it is not, and even in those situations, it’s simply too easy to justify in a legal context that it becomes moot. So, nobody is going to refuse the order. And nobody is going to be prosecuted for it–at any level. It sounds tantalizing to say that it could be a war crime (under certain situations), and that surely sells papers and drives clicks much more so than saying that it could also be completely legal and justified (which it most likely is in this case).

I agree, but what about desalination plants? Can the words of the convention be twisted until a desalination plant is a legitimate objective?.

Bombing them into the Stone Age isn’t enough?

Yes. And it has been alleged that this has already happened on Qeshm Island, although both the US and Israel have denied having done it. As @Bear_Nenno eloquently put it, under international law, the definite military advantage only needs outweigh the civilian damage done. It isn’t a binary legal/illegal status of a particular type of civilian infrastructure. If the US or Israel were to have claimed to have targeted the desalination plant on Qeshm Island, they would only need to satisfy the requirement that the military need to destroy that particular desalination plant outweigh the civilian damage done.

Going back to Desert Storm, Iraq dumped 4 billion barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf. No one to my knowledge was ever charged with any kind of crime over it despite being portrayed as environmental terrorism, but it had a military objective:

Iraqi forces allegedly began dumping oil into the Persian Gulf in January 1991 to stop a U.S. coalition-led water landing on their shores.

Likewise, the burning of the Kuwaiti oil fields :

It is also hypothesized that Iraq decided to destroy the oil fields to achieve a military advantage, believing the intense smoke plumes serving as smoke screens created by the burning oil wells would inhibit Coalition offensive airstrikes, foil allied precision guided weapons and spy satellites,[9] and could screen Iraq’s military movements. Furthermore, it is thought that Iraq’s military leaders may have regarded the heat, smoke, and debris from hundreds of burning oil wells as presenting a formidable area denial obstacle to Coalition forces. The onset of the oil well destruction supports this military dimension to the sabotage of the wells; for example, during the early stage of the Coalition air campaign, the number of oil wells afire was relatively small but the number increased dramatically in late February with the arrival of the ground war.

Again, to my knowledge no one was ever charged with a crime relating to the burning of the oil fields, but a case for the military advantage outweighing the civilian damage done would have been trivially easy to make.

@Bear_Nenno 4 posts up; this should have been a reply directly to him.

Great post overall and clearly written from a fairly current fairly insider’s perspective.

As to this bit I’ll add one thing:

… And certainly not explained to the detainee’s satisfaction. Which is exactly what the detainee is demanding: that the officer justify their actions to the detainee’s satisfaction. Which of course could never be forthcoming unless the officer’s decision was “You’re free to go.”

Police and RAS is clearly a very different scenario than military target selection in wartime. But there are conceptual similarities.

Trump is threatening to destroy the Iranian civilization tonight. I don’t know how you spin that into a legitimate military need.

Yeah, if at any point prosecutors need to prove mens rea Trump has made it easier for them.
The problem is that is very unlikely he will face prosecution, people from countries with nuclear arsenals tend to be above such petty things.

And even internally to the US if it ever comes down to it, even absent blanket preemptive pardons, I believe it highly likely that “for the sake of reconciliation and unity” no one will be really harshly punished. And if DJT by then has shuffled off it’ll be an easy matter of “Oh well! The real guilty guy is dead, what can we do?”

Unfortunately, “What can we do?” is the response while he still lives.

Trump says, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” What does the Geneva convention about a direct threat like this, and what does it say about the actual carrying out of this plan?

You are thinking of the Genocide Convention, not the “Geneva Convention”.

It— super big surprise, here— defines as crimes
a. Genocide
b. Conspiracy to commit genocide
c. Direct and public incitement to commit genocide
d. Attempt to commit genocide
e. Complicity in genocide

I guess “bombing them back to the stone age” involves time travel, not genocide?

Just to bring it back to this thread, it’s not about Trump getting prosecuted, it’s about soldiers agreeing to send Iran back to the stone age.

For that purpose there is little that Trump can say one way or the other, soldiers obey their chain of command.

Another cite that Trump is planning on committing war crimes:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-civilization-threat.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ZFA.LMBU.0N0yxzIb5k-c&smid=url-share

They would do it. the Anonymity Of Numbers is a very strong social force.

About making threats? It doesn’t. A much more substantive case can be made that Hegseth committed a war crime on March 13th at a press conference, but even that can be defended on the grounds that it was rhetorical and not meant to be interpreted literally.

The Avalon Project - Laws of War : Laws and Customs of War on Land (Hague II); July 29, 1899

Article 23

Besides the prohibitions provided by special Conventions, it is especially prohibited:–

To employ poison or poisoned arms;

To kill or wound treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

To kill or wound an enemy who, having laid down arms, or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

To declare that no quarter will be given;

To employ arms, projectiles, or material of a nature to cause superfluous injury;

To make improper use of a flag of truce, the national flag, or military ensigns and the enemy’s uniform, as well as the distinctive badges of the Geneva Convention;

To destroy or seize the enemy’s property, unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Air Force Gen. Dan Caine Hold a Press Briefing > U.S. Department of War > Transcript | U.S. Department of War

Our response? We will keep pressing. We will keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies.

The rhetoric coming out of TFG and his administration is disgusting, barbaric, beyond the pale of diplomatic norms, unhinged to a level that calls into question sanity and fitness to hold office. All in furtherance of a war special military operation that is illegal, self-defeating, was launched with no apparent goal or strategy and has already done untold damage to the US on the world stage. Barring Hegseth stating there will be no quarter though, none of the rhetoric is anywhere near a war crime.

Looks like he TACOd, so we’ll have to wait a couple of weeks.

Is that really a shock? He’s pushed back his ‘deadline’ four times now.

This may have already been mentioned but it doesn’t matter if an order is illegal if the soldiers tasked with carrying it out believe it to be ideologically and morally justified. History has countless examples of soldiers and government employees doing awful things they know to be illegal but believe they’re justified regardless.