Missile Defense is a stupid idea

I know very little about the technology invoved here, but historical accomplishments have always been accompanied by naysayers, so to a layman such as myself, claims of inability to produce an effective shield are not pursuasive.

To go ahead though, I would hope that an accomodation with the treaty partner USSR/Russia is arrived at. To suggest no USSR no treaty partner would be viewed as weaseling. America’s greatest asset is its word.

There will never be a better time than now to pursue a missile defense shield (covering Canada as well I hope) for my children and their children. With America as undisputed top dog and capable of executing her will all over the world, the backlash of further destabilization as a threat to other countries is minimal.

But back to the original point. Do you think if the Pentagon was given requested funds for missile defense but were not obligated to allocate such funds to missile defense, that they would actually spend it on MD. One has to wonder if fattening the military bureaucracy is their actual aim, assuming such a defense is unrealistic?

Grienspace, it was nothing but snakeoil when Reagan spent billions on it in the 80’s. There were a lot of naysayers back then too, and they were right !
A half a trillion bucks seems like a LOT of money to gamble on a program that’s already failed once, especially when you consider that the accelerated implementation plan needed to meet the percieved threat means that we’ll end up abrogating the ABM treaty, and probably igniting a second cold war even before we find out if the thing will actually work.

flowbark, London
I’d just like to point out that, in addition to Teflon and Tang, that computer on which you’re reading this is a product of the space effort.
[/short hijack]

You should note that major technical accomplishments have usually inspired the most enthusiasm among the engineers and scientists working on them, with the naysayers being the politicians and other laymen. In this case, the politicians and laymen are the enthusiastic ones, while the most knowledgable people are the most pessimistic.

Incidentally, let’s not kid ourselves that the moon landing program ever had technological offshoots as one of its real goals. That was NASA PR to help dampen criticism of the expense. The primary goal was to beat the Soviets to the “high ground”, and anything learned either scientifically or technically was just a nice bonus. If the primary goal of Star Wars, in the minds of its remaining supporters, really is technological innovation and advancement of physics knowledge, there are much more efficient ways to go about spending the money to achieve those results.

My bit :

We have a limited amount of money in our government. We could spend a trillion dollars or so to

A) Missile defense, an idea that probably will not work for several decades. We will expand an already bloated military industrial complex and waste money in an inefficient Pentagon procurement system for a system that may be partially effective against a future perceived threat.

B) either rescue Social Security, pay off the debt, provide at least partial health care, overhaul the education system, or something else that is not likely to be done after the next round of budget cuts.

Sorry, but isn’t the whole Republican schtick to reduce the size of government? Aren’t we trying to introduce a sane fiscal policy? Aren’t we trying to balance a budget in this country?

Joe Says:

Hey, let’s compromise. We’ll work on it for 18 years, then re-evaluate… Oops, we’ve already done that. Missile defense has been researched continuously since 3/83, when R. Reagan made his Star Wars speech (to date, the US has spent over $39 billion). It was researched under Clinton. It will, alas, continue to be studied under Bush.

The question is whether Bush should move to early deployment (by constructing a radar station in Alaska). The decision must be made by March, if we want to start construction this year.

More perspective:

  1. Star Wars is fundamentally different than other tech programs. Not only does an effective system have to defend against current missile systems, it also has to defend against systems that are improved in response to our program. When the US landed a man on the moon, it didn’t have an adversary intent on physically stopping them from doing so: it was a space race, not space football (apologies to non-American World Cup followers) :slight_smile:

  2. BTW, when they talk about a missile defense, the plans typically revolve around defending missiles, not cities.

  3. Defense doctrine in the 1970s and 1980s revolved around “proportional response” as opposed to “mutually assured destruction”.

Asian Arms race
There actually is a way to handle China’s concerns. We could build an “umbrella defense” around N. Korea, rather than a shield around the US and its allies. Apparently, its easier to shoot ICBMs down before they go into orbit. North Korea is a fairly compact state; IIRC Putin has shown flexibility with regards to basing such a system on Russian soil. The South Koreans probably wouldn’t object too much.

Also in comparison to Iraq, I imagine that the hermit kingdom might find it more difficult to install an A-Bomb directly in an American city. Then again, their existing missiles can’t reach the US anyway.

None of this addresses the expense or unreliability of the current technology, however.

CalM: In your view, would a leaky defense against nuclear missiles be of value against an adversary with, say, over 100 ICBMs? Wouldn’t that encourage our adversaries to prefer to launch, say, 10 nukes rather than a “proportionate” single one? In short, could any conceivable ABM system be of any use against a power such as China or Russia, that is capable of responding to our moves? Or is the sole plausible purpose of further research to address rogue states with workable ICBMs?

Above, I posted a paraphrase on missile defense from Robert Park of the American Physical Society. Well, today’s “What’s New” e-column from him brought another story about it. I thought the last line was particularly amusing:

Leaving aside all technical questions a ballistic missile defense system poses, I believe the very concept of such a defense is flawed, for many different reasons.

1- Contrary to what an earlier poster said, the U.S. has broken treaties before, with Native Americans. In fact, our overall track record on keeping treaties is not good. But now we’re dealing with nuclear weapons wielded by countries on the other side of the globe. This is not the time to start suggesting we might just skip out on our side of the bargain again. There’s too much at stake.

2- What purpose would such a system serve? Who is it supposed to protect us from? It’s pretty clear that Russia won’t be launching missiles at us anytime soon. The only other country that could or would concieveably launch more than one missile at us would be China. But not only are our missiles much better than theirs, but we have more of them. Plus, if China wipes out the U.S., there goes the destination of half of China’s own exports.

3- The people pushing for such a system claim it’s to protect us from “rogue” state likes North Korea and Iraq. Come on. Who are they kidding? People are starving and dying in those countries right and left. Are they going to solve their problems by launching one or two missiles at the U.S.?

4- Shouldn’t the fact that virtually every ally we have is opposed to the idea tell our leaders something?

5- A “missile shield,” even one that doesn’t really work, could lead to a false sense of security. This would make real war a much more profound shock on our national psyche, which could hurt our chances of winning such a war (assuming we survived the first strike).
The whole idea seems like a money-swallowing boondoggle to me. And maybe that’s the idea. I wonder if the defense contractors who would benefit happen to be located in the districts of the defense system’s strongest supporters in Congress? Hmmm.

[QUOTE]
*Originally posted by Lizard *

“1- Contrary to what an earlier poster said, the U.S. has broken treaties before, with Native Americans. In fact, our overall track record on keeping treaties is not good. But now we’re dealing with nuclear weapons wielded by countries on the other side of the globe. This is not the time to start suggesting we might just skip out on our side of the bargain again. There’s too much at stake.”

True enough. Now let us assume you are responsible for the lives of millions of people and there are weapons out there aginst which you have no known defence. In quantities which if used would destroy your people their culture and way of life which you are supposed to defend. What exactly would you do roll over and play dead.

“2- What purpose would such a system serve? Who is it supposed to protect us from? It’s pretty clear that Russia won’t be launching missiles at us anytime soon. The only other country that could or would concieveably launch more than one missile at us would be China. But not only are our missiles much better than theirs, but we have more of them. Plus, if China wipes out the U.S., there goes the destination of half of China’s own exports.”

As for the accuracy of China’s missiles that is impoving rapidly, and as for number at the moment one for each major city is enough. It’s not like we can stop them if they are launched. As for their exports they are far more interested in imports like food. We have one hell of a grain belt which they are very interested in getting access to (and should be allowed access to) so that they can feed their people. With the turmoil currently beseiging the Russian government the question needs to be asked who has their big red button? If anything Russian nuclear arms have become more of a threat than China’s.

“3- The people pushing for such a system claim it’s to protect us from “rogue” state likes North Korea and Iraq. Come on. Who are they kidding? People are starving and dying in those countries right and left. Are they going to solve their problems by launching one or two missiles at the U.S.?”

The same was said about Germany just prior to W.W.II I rest my case.

"4- Shouldn’t the fact that virtually every ally we have is opposed to the idea tell our leaders something? "

Here you have a point as the world politics should be concidered before the production and deployment of such a system. However research should be done on this just like we continue to research better bombs and tanks and other weapons and defences for warfare.

“5- A “missile shield,” even one that doesn’t really work, could lead to a false sense of security. This would make real war a much more profound shock on our national psyche, which could hurt our chances of winning such a war (assuming we survived the first strike).”

Tell that to the Japaneese. The attack on Pearl Harbor was a shock to the nation but we not only entered the war we fought it on two fronts and won. Yes the psychological effects of a successfull attack would be profound, but more likely if the attack were successfull there would be no one left to shock.

“The whole idea seems like a money-swallowing boondoggle to me. And maybe that’s the idea. I wonder if the defense contractors who would benefit happen to be located in the districts of the defense system’s strongest supporters in Congress? Hmmm.”

So was NASA, but the long term bennifit to the global welfare out striped the cost. Scientific research of any type is more often than not benneffical in the long term. We would not have the sattlites we have now were it not for the German rocket programs devised to destroy population centers in Western Europe.If you don’t like the way your Congressmen spend you tax dollars then vote for some one else or run for office youself.Just remember what many forget power and responsibility go hand in hand.

But. . . but. . . but. . .

The people who paid, and continue to pay to put Bush into office will make billions on this! Surely you can see the benefit in that.

In a news story today, Sergei Ivanov, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, implied that further development of the National Missile Defence (NMD) programme would trigger a new arms race. Of course, this may well just be bluster, but Russia is already unhappy over NATO enlargement plans and possible environmental damage from DU usage in the Balkans.

The carrot Ivanov offered was the possibility of major cuts in warheads if the US abandons the plan. I can see why this is a good deal for Russia; I doubt their nuclear arsenal is in particularly good shape at the moment. On the other hand, Bush has to be very careful not to alienate politicians in other countries. His job may be to do what’s best for America and American citizens, but pissing off European and Asian leaders might do more harm than retaining the NMD programme would do good. Even Blair, a staunch supporter of the “Atlantic Alliance”, has refused to be drawn on whether he supports the plan; the BBC (hardly the most biased source of reporting) claims that he’s hoping that the barrage of non-governmental criticism from within and beyond the US will kill the plan.

personally, i think he is stupid. no longer are we faced with another superpower, threatening to blow us away. we shoudl funnel the money into anti-terrorist groups around the country. We should be worryin abou a third world country transportig nuclear weapons into our country the missles landing in our backyard. it think we should keep some systems, but not introduce new ones.

Bush et. al are all fools. The next major war will be like the Hezbollah/Hamas-Israel conflict. The US will bomb entire villages, those who oppose the US will respond not with a nuke but with terrorism. It will be a long and very dirty, unless a plan of total annihilation is implemented. Then we have to worry that hack programmers from the opposition getting the launch and aiming codes of the new anti-nuke rockets, and have those rockets instead be aimed at LA rather than above LA.

It was the same way with Washington, and Kennedy. This is a bad thing because???

Ok I can see you point with the Hezhollah/Hammas thing. However in so far as hack programmers getting acces to a ground or even space based missile defence system I just don’t think so. First off you have to get communication access to the control computers,(humans cant respond fast enough to do th job)then you will have to get through several multi-layer encryption codes. All this to find out “you can’t do that from here”. Any missile defence system (this included the old nikie/hurculies system) required a man on-site to function. It is far to easy to isolate a computer by just no giving it an outside line. All you need is access to your defences. I doubt hackers get easy access to NORAD.

It could be an inside job. Infiltrate the complex making the machines by taking a job, memorize the overrride sequences, and get out when the job is done. Show the override sequence, and the rest is easy.

If it were that easy we would have nukes falling as we speak.Any kind of long range missile deffence is going to require a real BIG network to run and coordinate it. As i said earlier humans are not fast enought to respond so it would have to be automated. This is part of what killed Regans Star Wars program. At the time computers were not fast enough and could not be networked together easily.It would take possibly dozens of people (think what it takes to man the boards at NORAD) to implement a plan like you stated above. If it was practical it would have been done allready.

Um, you have to be onsite, where the missles are at, to override them. Thats not that east.