Happy_Lendervedder:
He’s going to need states like Michigan and Ohio in the general, but he won by the seat of his mom jeans in those primaries. He would probably like to retake VA for the Pubs, but he didn’t even look that good when it was just him and Ron Paul on the ballot. And the south? They do not like him down there one iota. He’s a rich, liberal, flip-flopping, unlikeable, awkward, New Englandy, effete culty Mormon. The only thing he has going down there is that he’s not a rich, liberal, socialist, likeable, smooth-talking, Chicago-y, effete culty Muslim black man. Now that may be enough to win him much of the south, but he is still struggling to really fire anybody up down there or most other places.
Simplicio:
I don’t think there’s much correlation on how a candidate does in a primary in a state and how they end up doing in the same state during the general election. At the end of the day, the people that show up to GOP primaries are mainly motivated Republican voters, they’ll all show up to the polls and vote for the GOP nominee in the General, regardless of who it is.
tnetennba:
I agree that things look bad for Romney, but winning those states (sic) by the same margin he lost (sic) wouldn’t have meant much either in the delegate math or his chances of winning the general, for several reasons. The first and foremost is that the GOP candidate will win THOSE states no matter WHO it is. Second is that while it might be an index of enthusiasm (or lack thereof) for Romney, elections against sitting presidents are basically referendums on that president. People are going to end up voting their feelings on Obama, not their feelings on Romney. Third is that Romney is bound to win the primary and tilt against Obama, so nothing can be done with the information that he struggled in the primaries.
I think it depends on what states we’re talking about. Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and the other hardcore southern states will go red in November no matter what. But Romney may not be able to hold on to Virginia, North Carolina, and Missouri. He may not be able to run up the leads he needs in the Florida Panhandle and rural Indiana to outweigh the urban areas of those states. Southern performance in the GOP primary isn’t a total write-off; a Republican needs solid support in all of the South to win the election, as John McCain and Bob Dole proved.