Of course, there’s a big danger lurking for any Republican candidate.
Texas.
Last time they polled, last summer and fall, Obama was about 10 points behind Romney and a little closer to the others. If internal polls, or a newspaper poll, shows this race suddenly being within 3, even for a couple weeks, well…
First, DFW, Centex, and Houston are very expensive advertising markets. Defending down there, particularly if you need to try to look invincible by carpetbombing the airwaves, will cost a fortune. On the other hand, all the Democrats need are some billboards and a willingness to spraypaint over obscenities and they’ll look like they’re contending.
Second, any stories about a close contest down there will look very bad in the national press. Texas is deep red and everyone knows it.
Third, the Texas Democratic Party has been beaten down so often and broken so badly that it has trouble just keeping the lights on. Five-ten million bucks gets sent down there to help rebuild a statewide organization, and all of a sudden you’ve got campaign offices that are open after working hours, phone lines that aren’t disconnected, rallies that have food. “We don’t have to lose all the time” gets people out of the woodwork - and the demographics make it closer every election…