When he’s eventually replaced, it’ll almost certainly be a Republican, yes. But until that happens, he’s effectively an empty seat. An empty seat isn’t as good as a flip, but it’s still better than a non-vegetative Republican occupying the seat.
Something seems wrong about the wording in that quote of the Kentucky law.
Shouldn’t that be “more than three months”. You don’t want to schedule a special election that close to the regular election. If that is the actual wording of that law, someone messed up. And assuming they pay attention to the wording, the Governor would not be able to issue a writ if the death happens more than 3 months before the election, since this year has a regular election.
JD Vance has had to break 8 tied votes in the Senate. Those would have gone the other way if a GOP seat was vacant.
That’s the old law, which allows the governor to appoint a replacement, with a possible special election to follow. The current law, which stripped the governor’s ability to appoint a replacement (for similar reasons as Massachusetts stripped the governor’s power 16 years ago), says:
When an election is to be held to fill a vacancy in the office of representative in Congress, or in the office of United
States Senator, a proclamation therefor, in lieu of a writ of election, shall be issued and signed by the Governor and
shall be directed to the proper sheriffs. The proclamation shall be published by the sheriffs as required by KRS
118.750. The candidate who is certified as the winner of the special election shall hold the position of the office of
which he or she has been elected for the remainder of the unexpired term.
…
A copy of a proclamation issued under KRS 118.710 or 118.720, or a writ of election issued under KRS[ 63.200,] 67C.103, 118.730, 120.205, or 120.215 shall be forwarded by mail to the sheriff of each county in the district in which the election is to be held, at least fifty-six (56) days before the election. The sheriff of each county in which an election is to be held shall give notice at least forty-nine (49) days before the day of election. If, from any cause, the sheriff cannot properly act, he or she shall immediately hand the writ or proclamation to the person authorized to act in his or her place.
So it sounds like a minimum of 8 weeks? So if McConnell dies tomorrow, the earliest they could have a special election is Sep 2, and the replacement would only serve 4 months until the new Congress took office.
Thanks, it’s difficult to tell since the PDF I found doesn’t have a date or anything.
That’s worded more simply than the old law.
At least, if none of those were strategic “I can vote my way and still get my party’s will so I look like a maverick” votes. With a vacant seat, some senators might have voted differently.
Assuming @Atamasama has remembered that 30 days hath September and the math is otherwise correct,. the scheduled election to be held on November 3 already falls within the 150 day maximum, so neither the Governor or the Republicans have to concern themselves with any special election complications.
So politically there’s nothing to be gained or lost by having McConnell officially pronounced dead right now. But maybe, just maybe Laura Loomer is not 100% correct. McConnel may well be in a coma, but not technically brain dead, and could linger indefinitely.
In brain death, injury or illness does severe, permanent damage to your entire brain and brainstem. Your brainstem manages your breathing and heart rate. Your brain manages senses like sight, sound and touch, and abilities like motor movement.
Since nobody’s talking we don’t know if McConnell’s heart is beating on its own, or if he’s reacting to one or more stimuli that would be tested.
So I’m no election lawyer, but it sounds like under the old law:
The governor would appoint a replacement Senator. That person would serve until the next general election, at which point another replacement Senator would be elected until the normal cycle for that seat. If the next general election was the normal election for that seat, then that election would fill the seat normally.
If the next general election was too close, i.e. within 90 days, then you’d have a special election after the general election, to elect a replacement to go until the next general election.
Until a doctor issues a death certificate, McConnell is not dead. The only mechanism for removing a living senator (incapacitated or not) from office short of a resignation or election is a 2/3 vote in the Senate. The advantage for the Democrats is that the GOP will be one vote short until January or until McConnell’s heart stops beating.
That’s assuming that one of Collins or Murkowski or whoever was voting with the Democrats in those instances wouldn’t have flipped back to voting R if they knew the measure in question needed their vote.
What part of the brain manages shameless hypocrisy around Supreme Court confirmations? I wonder if that’s still active.
And even after McConnell’s heart stops beating, the Democratic governor could still drag out the election date as far as possible. And if it’s a special election, well, weird things happen in special elections sometimes. And if it’s both a special election and after the regular November election date, we could have someone weird occupying that seat for a good long time.
It reminds me of that guy in the film Blue Velvet who was shot in the temple sideways and the bullet destroyed the frontal part of his brain. Leaving him without consciousness and practically as good as dead. But his undamaged cerebellum kept him standing and his brainstem kept him breathing.
Holden: You’re in a desert, walking along in the sand, when all of a sudden you look down–
Leon: --What one?
Holden: What?
Leon: What desert?
Holden: It doesn’t make any difference what desert, it’s completely hypothetical.
Leon: But, how come I’d be there?
Holden: Maybe you’re fed up. Maybe you want to be by yourself. Who knows? You look down and see a tortoise, Leon. It’s crawling toward you…
Leon: Tortoise? What’s that?
Holden: You know what a turtle is?
Leon: Of course!
Holden: Same thing.
Leon: I’ve never seen a turtle… But I understand what you mean.
Holden: You reach down and you flip the tortoise over on its back, Leon.
Leon: Do you make up these questions, Mr. Holden? Or do they write ‘em down for you?
Holden: The turtle lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over, but it can’t. Not without your help. But you’re not helping.
Leon: [angry at the suggestion] What do you mean, I’m not helping?
Holden: I mean: you’re not helping! Why is that, Leon?
Leon: Mitch McConnell? Are you kiddin’ me?
Moderating:
Please pay attention to moderator guidance in this thread to save the smokin’ and jokin’ for the Pit:
Thanks.
No, the regular election is already set between Andy Barr and Charles Booker. Regardless of what happens with McConnell and a possible special election, one of them is certain to take the seat on Jan 3 2027. The most that a special election could possibly do is fill the remainder of McConnell’s term.
Back on this, the only info I’m seeing is what @DigitalC posted immediately above my question, that the GOP desperately wants to avoid a special election in which Thomas Massie could run as an independent. So it’s in their interest to keep things under wraps until after August 3, which is evidently the cut-off date.
Still unclear to me: I saw an article stating that after August 3, the special election would coincide with the general. Does that mean there’d be two elections on Nov 3, one for the interim senator from Nov 4ish (whenever the results are certified) through January, and a second for the senator starting in January?
GOP leadership claims to have had a “long” talk to McConnell. I personally don’t believe a word of it.
With his hologram maybe…
Nothing says he was doing any of the talking.