MLB Hotstove: 2014-2015 Offseason

With the Martin signing a few days in the rear view mirror I’m now confident that the Blue Jays have no idea what they’re doing.

The Martin signing would have made sense only if it was followed by moves to actually fill the holes the team had, such as the complete lack of a second baseman and the fact they presently have only one outfielder (unless you are really optimistic about Dalton Pompey, and you believe they have two, but you still need three of them) and no DH. But… um, they do not seem to be doing anything about those things. I would have expected them to trade Dioner Navarro for a second baseman or an outfielder, for instance, since they no longer need Navarro, one presumes. Or sign Pablo Sandoval (and move Lawrie to second) but apparently now he’s a Red Sock. To be honest I’d have thought those deals would be ready to go upon the Martin signing being official. Wouldn’t you?

But no. Indeed, Alex Anthopolous has said the Martin deal was the one thing he was concentrating on. So the team has two starting catchers and only two outfielders. And no second baseman. I’m bewildered.

The thing I find more interesting about the Red Sox dealings is having Hanley Ramirez become a left fielder.

What?

Oh, Sandoval. nm.

In other news, the 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot is out.

Thoughts? Seems to me like the first three are locks, and then…do ANY of the rest of them make it, ever?

2015 HOF thread:

Well, Sheffield has a pretty good case, though his counting numbers are inflated by some good-but-not-HOF good years at the end of the career and the era he played in. The ballot is so packed right now that he wouldn’t be on my ballot this year, but if we had unlimited ballot slots I’d probably have him in. I don’t think anyone else is especially close.

Now excuse me while I go back to watching the Red Sox sign all the players.

Red Sox sign both Ramirez and Sandoval. So I guess Will Middlebrooks is done. But surely they won’t give up on Xander Bogaerts?

The first two are locks. I’m not sure about Smoltz, but definitely not before Mussina and Schilling.

I’d guess they’ll put Ramirez in the outfield and try to trade Cespedes, or maybe first base and try to trade Napoli? Cannot believe they’d try to put him at short.

Wasn’t there a poster here last year who kept insisting that the Red Sox were through with high priced free agents, that they were committed to their young kids and maybe making a shrewd trade or two, but there would never again be a free agent signing in Boston of the magnitude they used to indulge in? Don’t recall his username and don’t think I’ve seen him here for a spell, but I wonder what he’d make of the deals. Well, I’m pretty sure the spin would’ve been positive…

That was Bellhorn.

Maybe the idea is to package a prospect with Cespedes in a trade for Jordan Zimmerman or some other front line starter. I don’t think Napoli has much trade value with a $15 million salary.

I have a particular interest this year. Since I finished last in 2014 I have the first fantasy draft pick. Since we use only the AL I will have my choice of players that come over from the NL as well as the Cubans.

I need hitters more than pitchers although its hard to pass on a stud closer.

My choice at the moment would be Hanley Ramirez.

Oakland trades Josh Donaldson to Toronto for Brett Lawrie, Sean Nolin, Kendall Graveman and Franklin Baretto.

This is a good and probably necessary trade for Oakland. Donaldson is a loss, but Lawrie is a underrated young player with continued upside. Graveman is an A prospect, Nolin a B, and Baretto a very young prospect but very, very impressive so far. Oakland will probably be worse for this in 2015, but better, and potentially a lot better, thereafter, and I imagine they wouldn’t be able to afford Donaldson soon.

Toronto might be better off for this in 2015; Donaldson is very good now. This is again a little puzzling though in that they have - again - gone to great expense to upgrade at a position where they already had a good player, but have expended nothing to fill gaping holes at other positions.

RickJay–I don’t follow the American League closely and know nothing firsthand about the three prospects the Jays gave up. And I appreciate what you say about upgrading at the wrong positions. Still, I’m kind of surprised that you as Charter Jays Fan are not more enthusiastic about this trade. From where I look at it:

*Looking through the “prospect watch” sites, I don’t get the sense that any of these three players are especially highly rated by the experts: Baretto, as you point out, may have a very high ceiling but he’s also very young, and most people seem to be suggesting that the two pitchers might find some success as back-end rotation starters. Obviously there’s value in that should they make it that far, and players can turn out to be better than the analysts think, but it doesn’t look to me like the Blue Jays gave up much of their future.

*Lawrie’s always struck me as a good player, someone you’d like on your team. A little up and down for my taste, and there’ve been some injury problems, yes? And he’s young, and maybe one of these days he’ll break through. But I don’t think I’d be holding my breath.

*Donaldson, on the other hand–he’s ranked second in WAR among position players in his league for each of the last two seasons. He’s got a broad base of skills. He’s not a kid, but he’s not nearly ready for the old age home yet either. Other than Trout, who’s been better than him the last couple of seasons? --I know Donaldson doesn’t have a long track record, past performance is no guarantee of future results, etc, etc. Still, I’m a little surprised Oakland couldn’t get a better package for this guy.

Don’t get me wrong, Donaldson is a great player and the old saying that you should always try to be the team that gets the best player in the trade certainly holds true here. But it’s bizarre to make moves to upgrade yourself from good to better at a position - twice - when you have gigantic holes with sub-replacement-level players seriously in the mix.

The Jays, to give you some recent history, though, have a propensity towards managing their roster based on who they like on a personal level. They allowed JP Arencibia several years to prove what anyone with eyesight could see - that he was overmatched by major league pitching - because he was tall and handsome and personable and so they were happy to give away better catchers to let him keep the job. They’ve got a weird thing for Ryan Goins and Kevin Pillar now for more or less the same reason, and again, while both are by all accounts very nice men, they are not major league calibre ballplayers, and their DH (or first baseman, if you want Encarnacion to DH) is replacement level, and their apparent left fielder is a mediocre player who missed 2014. So they acquired guys to replace decent ballplayers, not the bad ones.

Again, I have to stress Donaldson is awesome and he’s also cheap, so in theory his acquisition takes little away from the team’s budget-related ability to add more help. And there may be signings and trades yet to come. But they’re replacing a decent player who could get a lot better than decent, not the awful crap they had and still have at other positions. It’s as if the Nationals said “We want to improve; let’s trade Bryce Harper and three prospects for Jose Bautista.” That might actually help Washington in 2015, but it would be a very strange place for them to start.

Well, i knew the Orioles weren’t going to be willing to spend what it would take to hang on to Nelson Cruz.

He’s off to the Mariners, apparently for 4 years/$57m.

I’m sure the Orioles will miss him next year, but boy oh boy that is a lot of money and a bunch of years for a guy like Cruz. He’ll be 35 mid-season next year…

The last couple of seasons on that contract could be truly brutal.

Cruz has one skill and he’s moving to a park where that skill is exceptionally hard to be proficient at. That could be a terrible, terrible signing.

Rumor has the Dodgers one of the front-runners to sign Jon Lester, where he would be #3 behind Kershaw and Greinke, just ahead of Ryu.
Yes, please! (I *already *can’t afford to go to games!)

Oh, i wasn’t necessarily complaining too much. I think it would be nice to have Cruz next season, in the hope that he could pick up where he left off, but i certainly think that it’s a lot of money and years for him.

Orioles have lost Nick Markakis too. Well, lost isn’t quite the right word. They declined to pick up the $17.5m option for 2015, choosing instead to pay him $2m to go away. The Braves picked him up on a 4-year deal reportedly worth about $44m. I’m not too upset at losing him. He has lost much of his power over the past couple of years, and replacing his offensive production won’t be incredibly difficult.

Some commentators argued that Baltimore should have made a qualifying offer of about $15m/1yr to Markakis, so that when he rejected it the Orioles would get a draft pick out of the deal. As it is, they lose him without getting anything in return.

Incidentally, as a Jays fan I approve of the Saunders-Happ trade.

Happ is a nice guy and all but last year he had an ERA+ of 93 and a WAR of 1.4, and he’s 32, and that was the second best year of his entire career. Saunders, playing 70 games, was just as valuable.

Perhaps more to the point, Toronto needed a left fielder and Saunders is that. I like his game. They really didn’t need J.A. Happ anymore, though they did when they got him.