No, I mean I’ll take the Phillies’ Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc. over the lineup the Mets roll out there, and Hamels over anyone NY puts on the mound every five days. But you’re right, Philly’s bullpen is a disaster; it should be chalk outlines surrounded by police tape. And the rotation is underperforming, so that’s a problem, too.
However, I wouldn’t be so sure there’s no help to be had for the bullpen via trade; sometimes, there’s an obscure middle reliever who moves from one team to the other without much notice, but winds up shoring up everything for his new team. You never notice those trades, and can’t really predict them–everyone’s always jawing about starting pitching and that “one big bat”–but those below the radar moves often make the difference. I will continue hoping for the Phillies.
And I have no faith that the Braves will hang in all the way, despite having Hudson and Smoltz in the rotation. I just don’t get a championship vibe from that team. It’s going to come down to Mets and Phillies.
Well, sure, today. But the thing is, the Mets have a considerable number of players playing well below their usual standards - notably Beltran, Delgado (whose OPS to date in 2007 is more than 100 points lower than his career OPS), and LoDuca. The Phillies, on the other hand, have a bunch of regulars - Rowand (overall) and Burrell (in terms of OBP) who are playing way over their heads. Regression to the mean, she is a harsh mistress, and if I were betting, I’d say it’s considerably more likely that Rowand will cool off in the last third and that Delgado, Beltran, and LoDuca will hit a lot better.
Three out of those four guys pitch for the Mets. Neither of them is Pedro Martinez, who if he happens to be healthy could post just as good a line as any of the four above. The difference between Hamels and his closest equivalent on the Mets’ staff (probably Oliver Perez, pitcher #1 above) is not as significant as you suggest.
Just for kicks, the second best starter in Philly has been possibly Kyle Kendrick (4.44 ERA, fewer than 4 K/9), or Jon Lieber (4.74 ERA, now, shockingly, injured). The Mets’ fourth starter (Jorge Sosa) has numbers roughly comparable to Kendrick’s (but with more strikeouts).
The Met starting pitching is a good sight better than Philadelphia’s.
Everybody wants a middle reliever this year. The Mets do. The Yankees do. The price is going to be terribly high.
Seriously: You can get *Kyle Farnworth ** cheap. Just take his contract and toss a bag of balls back to the Yanks. He would probably look good in Shea or Atlanta. No AL team should touch him.
You raise a good point. I do think the Phillies have a better hitting lineup top to bottom than the Mets, and I would also take their best pitcher (Hamels) over any Mets pitcher in any single game.
But the Mets’ total pitching squad, the starting five plus bullpen arms, is clearly superior – the 2-5 starting pitchers on the Mets’ rotation compares very well to the Phillies’ 2-5 pitchers, with Pedro Martinez coming back in a few weeks to boot, and the bullpens are not to compare – and the Mets’ hitting, while tepid, has been Good Enough So Far And Showing Signs Of Improvement.
The Phillies (should they get there) may be the more dangerous post season team, in that if they “get hot” a la last year’s champions (the 83-win Cardinals), they have the right pieces to go deep. But it also makes it harder for them to get there over the regular season.
I also agree that on paper, the Phillies have a greater chance of putting a run together for the division than the Braves. It’s just that I still don’t trust those boys from Atlanta. The vibe I get from them is: just when you thought they’ve gone to bed, bam, they’re in your kitchen, eating the cookies and drinking the milk right out of the container.
Of course, any team that gets hot can win it all. I’ll disagree, though, and say the Phillies are precisely the sort of team I’d bet against in a playoff scenario. They’re an all-hitting, no-pitching team - they’re scored more runs than any NL team and allowed more, too. Pitching-heavy teams, especially ones with very strong bullpens, have a slight advantage in the postseason.
It would be quite unprecedented for a team with pitching as bad as the Phillies to win the World Series. Last year’s Cardinals are regarded as a really weak World Series winner and their pitching was middle of the pack.
All of the above analysis does not really give me pause regarding the Phillies. What does give me pause is the fact I’ve been expecting the Phillies to win that division for about 10 years in a row now, and it keeps not happening. I will continue to hope and take a wait and we’ll see approach.
And I never said anything about Philadelphia in the World Series. I’d just like to see them in the playoffs for a change. In my own mind, as of right now, I’m projecting a Detroit vs San Diego World Series. Detroit just looks better than everyone else to me; SD is more of a hunch pick. It could just as easily be the Dodgers, but my gut tells me the Padres will nose them out. That could change if Young’s injury keeps him out of more than one start. Big trades could cancel all of the above, of course.
Yanks keep winning and keep gaining ground. I am happy. Red hot KC has been cooled off. As Seattle lost and the Red Sox lost, Yanks are 6½ behind the Sox and only ½ behind Seattle but remain 4½ behind Cleveland.
The Nats picked up their 42nd win of the season a few days ago, and it ‘only’ took them 98 games to win that many. So even if they lose their last 64 in a row, they’ll still have a better record than the 1962 Mets.
I’m pleased that the Indians have finally done something about Cliff Lee. Lee has a great won-loss record for his career, but has never been an excellent pitcher. Lucky, yes.
The trade for Lofton might not help, but it was great fun to be at the game last night and see him get a pie in the face.
Phillies are 3.5 games back, still have 7 games left against the Mets, none before Aug. 27. Utley may be back by then. It may not be over yet, if they hold their ground between now and then. I will hope, but not expect.
Everybody: if your team is looking for some spare parts, the A’s have the store open. They showed some signs of life at the beginning of this week, but the last two days have made that idea null and void. Lots of players can be had. Step right up. Don’t be shy.
Let’s all meet back here in a week; we should have a much clearer picture of where all this is going by then.
Yeah, Byrdak and Grilli lose their roster spots when Zumaya and Rodney come back in. Also, the Tigers’ bullpen will start throwing flippin’ strikes.
I say we ride the starters into the 8th or 9th.
Looks like the Braves are making some moves. Just traded for Texeira (giving up Saltalamacchia). They plan to make up the difference in salary with savings on uniform letters.
Looking at what they gave up, this seems like a “future is now” move. Hope it works.
Now if they can just unload that fat-assed save-blowing machine, uh, I mean highly-valued and effective closer Bob Wickman to some unsuspecting sucker, uh, I mean savvy* GM*…