Baseball Spring Training Round-Up

It is that time of year and time to start seriously talking baseball.

I hope everyone checks in with the report on their team and their comments about the other teams and posts. Have fun!
Yankees: We play second fiddle to the Red Sox this year but the team is getting younger and the Pettitte controversy already appears to be behind them.

Shelley Duncan is trying to win a starting job, he is playing first about as well as Jason Giambi, (not that that is good) and actually looks good in Right Field. He might be the cheap solution next year for Abreu leaving. Eventually one of the CF prospect will probably push Melky to a corner position.

For the Line Up the Yanks are exceptional. Posada & Molina will provide excellent offense behind the plate and while Jorge is unlikely to bat as he did last year, it will still be plus offense and Molina is a big improvement on any backup catcher then we had since Joe Girardi.

First Base, Left Field & DH will be from the pool of Damon, Matsui, Giambi and Duncan. The plan is currently for Damon to play most of Left and Giambi most of first, but little injuries will change this throughout the year.

Middle Infield, I expect Cano & Jeter to have a better years. I think Jeter had a leg injury for much of last year. It wasn’t reported, but I saw it in the way he played the field and ran the bases. He took less extra bases and his steals were way down. Additionally he was no moving well to 3rd in the field.

Third Base, well A-Rod would be hard pressed to match last year, so I expect a drop off. He should still have a great year, just not as good.

Right & Center: Bobby Abreu is playing for a contract and came into camp healthier and in better shape. He should have a monster year. I would expect 100+ RBIs and 110+ runs on the low side. Cabrera should continue to improve and the work he is doing on plate discipline is already showing with 5 walks this spring.

In the Field the Yanks are solid this year. Weak at first and maybe a little weak at starting Catcher but Melky makes up for average range with a plus arm in CF. Abreu is a good RF. Damon will play plus LF. Cano is already an average 2b and is still improving and Jeter had a bad year last year and should bounce back a bit. A-Rod is becoming a good third baseman with a great arm.

Starters: Wang, Pettitte and Hughes should all put up good number. I expect 45+ wins from this trio. Despite in being against baseball wisdom, Wang has back to back 19 win season and is still improving and still young. Rounding out the rotation at the start of the year is Kennedy and Moose. Kennedy should be able to get 10 wins and hopefully 180 inning. Moose could loose his job to either Joba or another kid before July. I hope I am wrong, but I think his tank is nearly dry.

Bullpen: The ageless Rivera should have another good year. Joba will start the season as the 8th inning guy and this is a big plus for the Yanks. Demoting Farnsworth to share 7th inning duties with Hawkins who has looked good in spring, but who knows. The rest is wide open with about 7 names for 2 or 3 positions.

The farm is looking good. I won’t go into detail yet, but there is a lot of pitching and some outfield help available.

Joe Girardi is the right man for the Yanks. I know this is controversial but Torre outstayed his usefulness. Girardi is the right mix of fire in the belly and baseball smarts to rebuild this team around the youth Cashman is bringing in.

The Yanks are scheduled to drop about $80 million in payroll after this year. Pettitte, Pavanno, Moose, Farnsworth, Giambi & Abreu are the biggest chunks.

Jim

Some early predictions:

AL East:
On Paper
Boston (Still a very good offense and the best pitching in the AL, Defending Champs)
New York (Still the most expensive team, still the best or second best offense and iffy on the pitching)
Toronto (They are getting good and if they stay healthy and few teams falter, they could take the Wild Card as a big upset)
Tampa (They are improving, but not enough in this division)
Baltimore (They are not getting better)

In my Heart
Yanks find a way to beat Boston with the kids performing and Girardi getting the most out of the team.
then Toronto, Rays and O’s.

Ah, Los Mets: at the beginning of the spring they would have won the Battle of the DLs – they had a pretty good team of injured players. Many have returned, with mixed success.

Were it not for Santana, everyone would be cursing Omar Minaya this year. (Admittedly, a pretty good “were it not for.”) There’s no good backup for Delgado at first or Alou in left (I think Pagan will come back to earth at some point); at second, Castillo and Valentin are both injury-prone; catchers Schneider and Castro are both injured at the moment, with 2 older guys as backups to them (Cancel and Casanova); Ryan Church has shown nothing, pretty much. I like Endy Chavez and Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson, but those guys make up a good bench – they’re not starters. How many at bats will Alou and Delgado and Castillo have this year?

Fortunately we’re not in the AL East or Central so there’s hope. I think it will stay close between the Mets, Phils, and Braves this year, with the team that stays healthy and gets some pitching luck ending up on top.

Jim, will Chris Woodward make the team? I like him. The Yankees are going to need a good bench too: I don’t think Damon and Abreu and The Giambino and Matsui are going to play 150 games each this year.

Good summary of the Mets.

Woodward is probably not going to make the team. There are a few infielders and one Outfielder ahead of him at this point and not many spots. One of the questions is how many pitchers the Yanks will break camp with. I hope it is only 11 but I suspect 12 and it could be a hideous 13 like Torre had at points.

Projected lineup: Damon LF, Jeter SS, Abreu RF, A-Rod 3b, Matsui DH, Posada C, Giambi 1b, Cano 2b, Cabrera CF.
Betemit, Duncan & Molina have 3 of the bench spots. There could be 0-2 spots open.

**Morgan Ensberg ** at 1st is in the running, in a pinch he could play third.
**Cody Ransom ** SS & IF is looking good as a utility Infielder. Especially if they don’t think Betemit can plays SS.
Brett Gardner CF has been impressing them with his speed and fielding. He is 24 and very fast with 6 stolen bases already.
**Chris Woodward ** appear to be next right now, he is having a good spring, but they seem to like Ransom better.

Of course Betemit might not get the job and that would make it easier for Woodward. Betemit still has some options I believe and Woodward & Ensberg have a May 1st release if they are not on the team.

Jim

The Dodgers are in the best shape I’ve seen them in the last few years as Opening Day approaches. This is the year, baby!

Outfield: Kemp in right, Jones in center, and the big decision for Torre – Ethier or Pierre in left? I’m thinking you go with the experience and let Ethier sub as needed. In any case, the outfield is solid. Pierre can’t throw worth a damn, but he’s a jackrabbit on the basepaths, and we need that kind of speed to compensate for the lack of a power hitter in the middle of the line-up.

Infield: The right side is solid, with Loney at first and Kent at second. Furcal is healthy, so that only leaves third as the question mark. Nomar is iffy for Opening Day, and LaRoche is rehabbing his thumb, so I have no idea who will start at third.

Catcher: They don’t get any better than Martin.

Pitching: Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda, Loaiza. The fifth spot is weak, but we have phenom Clayton Kershaw waiting in the wings for his chance. A little more seasoning and I see him as a starter. By May he will be ready.

The key, of course, is keeping the veterans healthy all season. We have the talent to rest them as needed, and the depth in the bullpen to outlast just about anybody. The lack of a power hitter still concerns me, but pitching can compensate to a degree.

GO BLUE!

My favorite player growing up was Buddy Harrelson. I always root for the smallish, light-hitting middle infielder.

The Yankees’ lineup is just as unforgiving last year. So how does Boston look? I know Schilling is out and Beckett is playing possum to save himself a daylong plane trip. How’s their offense? The Yankees will probably be better than last year barring major gimpiness among the old guys, or Pettite/Wang falling off the table. But second place may not be good enough this year! I’m hoping for a ridiculous 7-way race for the AL Wild Card all the way to the end of September.

Man, the Mets played the Orioles a few days ago and what looked like a second-tier split-squad team was I believe mostly opening day starters. Things are going to be weird at Camden Yards.

For my Cardinals:

Things are looking pretty bleak for this season, but that was expected. Still basking in the glow from 2006 (and the great teams from 2000 - 2006), so we can tolerate some mediocrity (or worse). The good news is that there is help on the way and some of the younger players are going to get some shots.

Infield: Obviously 1B can’t be improved, although Pujols might shut it down and get elbow surgery if the Cards fall too far back. 3B will be OK with Glaus, as long as injuries don’t reappear - real grass should help. Middle infield is a black hole, with Adam Kennedy and Izturis penciled in as starters. At least Brendan Ryan got one of the backup jobs so hopefully Aaron Miles will be seen far less than he was last year.

Outfield: Young, with some pop. Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Brian Barton, and Skip Schumaker, in some configuration. Colby Rasmus will be up soon from AAA to provide some much-needed star power and excitement.

SP: Wainwright and then ??? Lohse immediately becomes the #2, followed by Looper, Reyes, and probably either Wellemeyer or Brad Thompson to start the season. Piniero should be healthy soon, and the hopefully Mulder and Carpenter at some point… oh how I miss Danny Haren.

RP: The bullpen is actually pretty solid. Isringhausen is back and pitching well. The setup guys are all pretty solid. Of course, there probably won’t be many leads to protect…

Oh well, I’ll be at the ballpark 27 times anyways… at least there are some young players to cheer for and the next great Cardinals team to start building.

In the division I like the Cubs fighting it out with the Brewers. The Reds would have a shot if they hadn’t signed Dusty Baker. The Astros and Pirates are just awful. The Mets to win the NL and the Tigers the AL. Tigers win the WS.

Boston is still on paper the class of the AL. The line up is good, it might even be #3 if Manny and Papi stay healthy for 140 game each. The pitching staff even with a gimpy Schilling will still be the best in the AL from what I can see. However, I have barely kept up with the Yanks this year and I leave it to a Boston fan to give us more details.

The O’s look terrible on the field and paper. They could be the worse in the AL this year. Let’s see if KC tries to keep distinction from them.

My favorites were the hard nosed players. Munson, Nettles, Pinella. This makes me like Shelley Duncan and root for the man without a position that is too old to be a prospect.

Silenus, who is playing third?

Me, if it gets to that. Abreau is out for weeks, Nomar is iffy, and that’s all that’s in the pantry. I don’t know if Hu can play third or not. Torre may have to bring up a AAA player to fill if he has to. Both injuries are minor, but they are nagging and need to be fully healed before they are put to the rigors of regular play.

No, Who is playing first!
Jas09, I think the Cardinals will do better this year than people expect. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect them to be a stronger team this year than last year (especially if they get a healthy Carpenter and Mulder back later in the season, and Pujols’s elbow doesn’t give out), but the rest of the NL Central will be stronger too. The potential is there for the Cards’ season to go really well, or really poorly, or anywhere in between.

I’d agree - except I’d also add that they could be a better team than last year and still have a worse record. Not only has the NL Central gotten better, but the Cards were pretty lucky to have the record they did last year. They’re expected wins were something like 71, when they actually won 78 games last year. I think 76 wins sounds about right for this season.

Oh, and I forgot to mention Matt Clement as another returning injured pitcher. Not that he’s great shakes either…

Toronto went 83-79 last year while setting a league record for injuries (No, really) and getting a lot of subpar games from the walking wounded.

It appears they’ve already lost Casey Janssen and BJ Ryan out of the bullpen, but they didn’t have Ryan all last year either, so it’s really only one arm lost from a still-deep bullpen. The front four look very sharp and there are multiple options for the fifth starter, so overall it appears the pitching will again be solid. They were 2nd best in the AL last yeaqr in runs allowed; I expect them to remain in the top third.

The problem in 2007 was offense. It was offensive. It will almost certainly be better:

1B - 2007, Overbay, mostly hurt. 2008, Overbay, will likely be better
2B - 2007, Hill. 2008, Hill, may improve a bit.
SS - 2007, McDonald et al., all terrible hitters. 2008, Eckstein, not a bad hitter.
3B - 2007, Glaus, hurt. 2008, Rolen, healthy now but will probably get hurt. Can’t be worse.
C - 2007, Zaun et al. 2008, Zaun and Barajas; probably about the same.
LF - 2007, a variety of guys; Johnson hurt, Stairs hot. 2008, Johnson, Stewart and Stairs. Probably about the same.
CF - 2007, Wells hurt. 2008, appears healthy. Will be much better.
RF - 2007, Rios, played well. 2008, Rios, will probably play well again and may have more in him.
DH - 2007, Thomas. 2008, Thomas, Stairs and Stewart, likely about the same.

The pitching staff is more or less unchanged; Halladay-Burnett-McGowan-Marcum-Litsch, and I’m very happy with that. The loss of Janssen is tough but the pen looks okay; Brandon League is apparently very healthy, so that will more or less make up the gap. The defense will be fundamentally the same; Eckstein is a downgrade from McDonald (McDonald is still on the team and will get some work as a late ining defensive sub,m which mitigates that a little bit) but Rolen is an upgrade over Glaus. I would have preferred a lewfthanded hitting shortstop, since McDonald is a decent hitter against lefties, but I guess Eckstein was what was available. More Overbay at first is good for the D as well. Most of the carryovers are outstanding defensive players; Hill, Wells, Rios, Johnson et al are all terrific glove men and the team will again be very strong in the field.

The team’s Pythagrean projection in 2007 was 87-75. Add a win or two for Overbay, a win for the upgrade a short, a win or two for Wells playing healthy, and a win for an overall upgrade at third, and the team looks like it’s roughly a 91-71 club. I figure, just off the back of my hand, that the pitchers and fielders will wash out the differences and be about the same. In other words, they have a good chance to make the playoffs, but will need to outperform my expectations a little bit to do so.

If the Yankees falter, and I think they could do anything from 74-88 to 102-60 and anything in between, the Jays will be a serious contender. If they don’t, it will be tough.

As for the rest of the league,

I generally agree that Baltimore has a chance to be astoundingly bad. 49-113 is not impossible.

Tampa Bay will not finish last again, but they won’t be as good as some people are saying. 76-86, perhaps.

Detroit is the best team in the league, not Boston, although Boston is probably the best in the East. Cleveland will compete for the Wild Card. Kansas City will still be bad, but not really bad.

Seattle will do very poorly. Anaheim will again rule the West.

Speaking as a Jays fan, Woodward’s a bum. He’s look great for a few days, then get tired.

Current talk on third for the Dodgers is either Tony Abreau or Blake DeWitt. DeWitt has never played above AA, so I’m thinking Tony has the job until Nomar or LaRoche is ready.

I think Valentin’s nerve injury may just be the end for him. He’ll retire if the shot he gets in the neck doesn’t help with the pain. But there’s always Ruben Gotay, right?

The problem with Ryan Church has been his concussion from earlier in the spring. Hopefully, he improves a bit. If he does or doesn’t, if Delgado can’t be a respectable hitter this season, there’s gonna be trouble at Shea.

Projected Starting pitchers

  1. Santana
  2. Pedro
  3. Maine
  4. Perez
  5. El Duque/Mike Pelfrey

The pen doesn’t look too bad, with Wags, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis and the likes of Duaner Sanchez & Joe Smith. Schoeneweis was bad last year, but he seems to do well every other year. He’s also healtheir this season, so we’ll see.

Projected line-up

  1. Reyes
  2. Castillo
  3. Beltran
  4. Wright
  5. Delgado
  6. Alou
  7. Church
  8. Schneider

Projected opening day injury-adjusted line-up

  1. Reyes
  2. Angel Pagan
  3. Damian Easley
  4. Wright
  5. Ruben Gotay
  6. Anderson Hernandez
  7. Endy Chavez
  8. Billy Crystal?

I predict a slow start for the Mets, with them hitting their stride in the summer. By June, we’ll have a good team. The question is, when they get good will they be a few games out, or a lot of games out? I think they’ll recover and overtake the Phillies.

NL east meaningless prediction.

  1. Mets
  2. Phillies
  3. Braves
  4. Nats
  5. Marlins

There was an article this morning about how the Dodgers may have been considering acquiring Joe Crede from the White Sox, but he’s rehabbing, too, and currently batting .125 in the spring, so that’s not gonna happen.

I’m trying to look at DeWitt’s stats for the Spring. I’m not sure how I feel about Abreu defensively at third.

I don’t see any way the Yanks finish under .500, there is far too much talent for that.

Detroit’s offense is either 1 or 2 on paper but I find their starters a little suspect. I also think Boston has a better bullpen. Detroit’s division is a little easier and that will help their win total, but why do you feel they are better than Boston?

Why do you think Seattle will do badly? They have plenty of pitching from what little I have seen so far.

Jim

Did you hear anything about the Dodgers talking to the Yanks about getting Betemit back? I heard that if the Crede deal fell through, they might look there as a stop gap.

I hadn’t heard that, but I wouldn’t turn my nose up at it, either! The question, as always, would be what we’d have to give up in return.

As hard as LA fans were on Betemit, I always kind of liked the guy. Granted, I don’t think he was living up to his potential, but there is talent there for sure.

I am thinking a good AA pitching prospect, but I could be wrong. The other possibility would be that you have to take Farnsworth, but Torre would do everything possible to stop that as would Farnsworth. No love betwen those two.