Spring training games start today. For some reason I always feel great when baseball starts up again. Are you optimisitic for your team this year? Why or why not?
The Yankees reverted to their old ways this winter, and while I’m excited to have C.C. and Texeira on the team, I am not optimistic about the long-term health and productivity of the farm system. They are also old at some key positions (C, SS,) and uncertain at others (CF).
Still, the offense looks loaded, and if Sabathia and Burnett hold up to their ridiculous contracts they should be in contention all season.
I’m a Red Sox fan. I’m always optimistic. Right up until they lose their first game of the season at which point I write them totally off and call them history’s worst losers.
And the when they make the playoffs, I go into full-on hypocrite mode and bring it with the, “See, I told you!”
I think the easiest thing to say is that the three best teams in the AL appear to be in the AL East. The Yanks made the largest improvements and the Sox the least. I think what will hurt Tampa is trying to get as much out of their Bullpen as last year but I see little reason to think that their Starters and Hitters cannot maintain or even improve.
The Yanks greatly improved in starting pitching and a Rotation of CC, Wang, AJ (when healthy) Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain with 5 possible alternatives that include Phil Hughes is very reassuring. The rotation should be excellent and should survive some injuries. The Bullpen looks like it should be long, deep and excellent. Rivera is coming along fine. Marte and Bruney will be solid to very good setup men. Phil Coke provides a second lefty/long guy/one of the alternate starters. The pool of J. Albaladejo, J. Veras, E. Ramirez, D. Robertson, DanGeiss and Brett Tomko and a few others will fill out the pen.
BTW: the 5 alternates for starters are Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Coke, Tomko, and Alfredo Aceves.
At catcher it looks like Posada will be ready and he should of course provide increase offense over Molina and everyone else from last year. If he is not ready and can only DH to start the season, they will probably carry 22 old Francisco Cervelli or 31 year old Kevin Cash. Cash can hit a bit and Francisco Cervelli is actually an excellent fielding catcher that may not be able to hit near his weight.
Mark Teixeira is obviously a big upgrade in hitting and defense from Giambi. Especially Defense! His being there should improve the defense of the Infield as he stops more throws from going wide and can actually consistently complete the 3-6-3 double play. Jeter will probably hit as well or better than last year. Cano should bounce back well. The winter reports on him were excellent. A-Rod is a question mark with the extra booing he will get on the road and some in the Stadium. I suspect he will put up A-Rod numbers anyway.
Damon in left will still be a weak fielder and as he is coming off one of his best offensive seasons he probably will not be as good. However, it is also a walk year and that should help the Yanks. Matsui will have the most DH at bats by far and should bounce back to put up some big numbers that were missing most of last year. Xavier Nady is actually a defensive improvement in Right over last year’s Abreu. However, I don’t think he is likely to match Bobby’s numbers. Nick Swisher may find a role on the team or he might be very unhappy as a bench player or he might get traded before the season. I do not seeing him winning a starting job however. Centerfield is in the audition and hold stage between the extremely fast Brett Gardner who looks great out there and Melky I got completely lost last year Cabrera with an outside shot of Swisher. I am betting on Gardner but no matter who wins the job, they are holding it for Austin Jackson the future Yankee Center Fielder.
The Yankees and Rays both had very good bullpens last year based largely on a bunch of little known players. I’m not sure why you think Rays will be less likely to maintain their excellence than the Yankees. They are on average younger, throw harder, and more heralded. Even with the addition of Teixeria, they have a much better defense behind them. Rivera is still Rivera, but for the rest of the bullpen i’d certainly take the Rays over the Yankees.
For a team with a 200 million dollar payroll, they don’t have a very good plan B for their 37 year old catcher not coming back well from major shoulder surgery. It killed them last year, and it may very well kill them again.
I think you are counting on way too many guys in their mid to late 30’s bouncing back. I think Matsui is done, Jeter is approaching the point where he is more of a liability on the field than an asset at bat, and Posada isn’t going to hold up. I also think, if Swisher bounces back at all, he is your best outfielder. Damon’s arm is a major liability, Nady is more of a platoon guy, and Gardner/Cabrera are better pinch runners/defensive subs than starters.
I think you are mistaken on the relievers: The Tampa group was not young and do not have a great track record. I think they got a little lucky last year in this one area.
Player Ag G ERA W L SV GS GF CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO BFP WP HBP BK IBB ERA+
CL Troy Percival 38 50 4.53 2 1 28 0 38 0 0 45.7 29 26 23 9 27 38 194 2 1 0 0 98
RP Dan Wheeler 30 70 3.12 5 6 13 0 26 0 0 66.3 44 25 23 10 22 53 264 1 0 0 4 142
RP *Trever Miller 35 68 4.15 2 0 2 0 16 0 0 43.3 39 21 20 2 20 44 187 1 4 0 1 107
RP *J.P. Howell 25 64 2.22 6 1 3 0 9 0 0 89.3 62 29 22 6 39 92 370 5 4 0 1 200
RP Grant Balfour 30 51 1.54 6 2 4 0 12 0 0 58.3 28 10 10 3 24 82 224 2 0 0 1 288
Not many teams have a good plan for their catcher going down if they have a hitting catcher. I covered that in my own post I thought. Missing Posada would not be good, but will not kill them. They barely had him last year. I look at Posada as an area where their offense can improve. If he is not available. Catching stays the same from last year. Damon’s arm is a liability but I think you are underestimating Nady. He looks ready to be an everyday player on a competing team. He has good plate discipline, a good eye for the ball and an accurate arm. Anything Swisher gives the Yanks is likely to be a bonus and not something they are counting on.
As to the outfield, CF is a big issue. They didn’t get much out of it last year either. I don’t see your basis for Matsui being done as a hitter. If Jeter loses a bit more fielding, he should get it back throwing to Teixeira instead.
They were a little older than I thought but the main contributors were still 30 or under. I still don’t see why you think they were fluky, or at least more fluky than the Yankees relievers. Balfour and Howell were absolutely dominant last year. Great strikeouts, pretty good control and hr rates behind a great defense. Why can’t they do that again? Do you really think Marte/Bruney are in that class? Based on what? Wheeler has always been a solid reliever, certainly with more of a track record than any nonclosing Yankee reliever. The Rays added Joe Nelson coming off a very good season. In addition they have a number of high quality pitching prospects, and not a lot of room in the rotation. Some of those guys will be the bullpen, and some of those will be very good.
Catching did kill them last year. Killing for the Yankees making them miss the playoffs. They aren’t going to lose 100 games. If you competing against teams this good you can’t have a black hole in your lineup. Tampa doesn’t, Boston might at catcher, but they should at least get more out of it than the Yankees sans Posada. No amount of solid defense is going to make up for a complete inability to hit.
Nady had a career half season with the Pirates. For the Yankees he hit 268/320/474. That is pretty much what he is, and that isn’t enough for an every day player in a corner outfield spot on a contender.
Matsui’s offense has gotten worse every year. His knees are bad enough that he can only play the field in an emergency. Yankees can’t trade him, because no one wants him. No I wouldn’t call the changes of him being both healthy and good to be very high. Jeter’s main issue is lack of range. Teixeria won’t help with that.
Since the Rockies essentially reverted to form last season after the epic 2007 playoff run, I can’t say I’m especially optimistic. I’ll go with hopeful, which isn’t quite the same thing. No Matt Holliday, but Helton and Tulo are both supposed to be in good shape, so that’s good. Pitching as always remains a huge question mark.
I’d be a bit surprised to see the Rockies win the NL West, but not to see them in the wildcard race late in the season. I also wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see them finish fourth or fifth in the division.
I’m an American League guy, so there are a lot of players in the NL that I’m not that familiar with. What can you tell me about Hawpe? I’m in a HR pool and I picked him up in the later rounds. It seems he averages about 25 HR a year, decent AVG, good slugging, strikes out a lot. Is he a typical power hitter?
My team is the Padres and I don’t see them improving much from last year. They don’t have enough offense to beat anyone consistently and they don’t have enough pitching once you get past Peavy and Young. If those two guys stay healthy, the Padres could work their way back to the 70-75 win range, but I’m not seeing much hope for better than that.
DPJ, that’s my team, too. I will be going to the games this year simply to have fun (and possibly see someone that will get traded away and become an up-and-coming star) and not to expect a win.
The Padres will be lucky to win 50 games this year. Sad, that, because they are the one team my wife and I can both root for.
As for my beloved Dodgers…I don’t think this is going to be the year for us. Too much iffiness in the pitching staff, as usual. Maybe our farm teams can give us some arms, but it doesn’t look hopeful. I’ll settle for crushing the Giants, as usual.
I’ve managed to get south of the border to see a game per year the last two years and, in both cases, saw the Padres play (woo hoo!), once in Seattle and once in Chicago against the Cubbies. So that’s pretty sweet.
silenus, I think Young and Peavy are strong enough to win 30+ games all by themselves, so they won’t need a ton of help to get to 70 wins. Gonzalez has enough stick to do some damage every now and then and Eckstein could provide a little extra spark at the top of the order, as well as a good clubhouse presence. The outfield has several adequate ballplayers, but no real game changers. I don’t think they’re nearly bad enough to lose 100 games, especially when they’re playing in the NL West.
So you’ll go into details on why you think the Yanks won’t win but no details on what makes the Mets better than Philly? I think our difference on the Yanks is that I am looking for why they could take the division and you are looking for why they won’t.
When a fairly good team adds the likes of CC, AJ and Teixeira they should improve by quite a few games. Even if everything goes wrong that you suggest, the Yanks are also getting Wang back with no reason to doubt he’ll return to form. His injury was not arm related.
Yep. A pity, because I hate them almost as much as I hate the Giants. Especially since they switched team colors. Or maybe it’s just because I get tired of watching them, since it seems they are always the opponent whenever we get a chance to go into LA or down to San Diego for a game.
My Indians have as good as shot any anybody in the 4 team AL Central race (sorry KC!). Cliff Lee isn’t going to go 22-3 again, but 18 wins is a reasonable expectation. I’m not counting on Hafner coming back, but a whole year of Victor Martinez at C/1b will be good.
I’m looking forward to losing a lot of games 1-0. But here’s hoping Matt Cain gets a few with the opposite score so he won’t be itching to leave as soon as he can.
