2007 Major League Baseball Predictions Thread

Cafe Society
1

Baseball season is only two weeks away; yes, the TRUE start of spring is so tantalizingly close. It’s time to make some predictions!

Here are mine, which as always have been carefully thought out using only my huge brain and the most modern analysis and are probably mostly wrong:

American League East

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Boston Red Sox
  4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
  5. Baltimore Orioles

The Yankees are still heavily loaded but the pitching has some holes; I think they’ll go an uncharacteristically normal 91-71 and still win. Toronto has scads of offense, but the rotation is two good pitchers and eight guys who might be good if you catch them in the right month. Boston is being picked by many to win 100 games, but I just have a bad feeling. Tampa Bay is still bad but at least going up. Baltimore is horrible and Miguel Tejada will be on another team by August.

American League Central

  1. Cleveland Indians
  2. Minnesota Twins
  3. Chicago White Sox
  4. Detroit Tigers
  5. Kansas City Royals

I guess it’s sort of shocking I’m picking the defending league champions to finish fourth, but it’ll bne a decent fourth (83-79) and anyway I think 2006 was heavily flukey. Cleveland is loaded with talent but is no sure thing; Minnesota still has a pitching staff to die for. Chicago will be good but no great. Kansas City is a lost cause for some time to come.

American League West

  1. Oakland Athletics
  2. Los Angeles Angels of Orange County Anaheim Southern California Just Off I-405
  3. Texas Rangers
  4. Seattle Mariners

Knowing the A’s, they’ll barely miss Barry and will find pitching somewhere and win 95 games. The Angels have the money to compete with the A’s but not nearly as many brains and I’ll pick brains over money. Texas and Seattle could finish 4-3 instead of 3-4 but few people outside of the Dallas and Seattle metroplexes will care.

National League East

  1. New York Mets
  2. Atlanta Braves
  3. Philadelphia Phillies
  4. Florida Marlins
  5. Washington National Capitals, or whatever it is they’re called

This division could go to any of the 1-4 teams but New York strikes me as being the most talented so I’ll go with them; I don’t think the Phillies are as good as they played the last seven weeks of 2006, while I don’t think the Braves are NEARLY as bad as people seem to think. Florida, who the hell knows. Washington was brutal last year and then lost their best player.

National League Central

  1. St. Louis Cardinals
  2. Houston Astros
  3. Milwaukee Brewers
  4. Chicago Cubs
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates
  6. Cincinnati Reds

The Chicago Cubs are being picked by a lot of people to win the Central. I’m just absolutely floored by this; I can’t believe actual, professional baseball writers can be that dumb. The Cubs were a TERRIBLE team last year, and as good as Alfonso Soriano can be, if you think he and Ted Lilly can somehow make Chicago 200 runs better than they were in 2006, you’re crazier than Ted Lilly is. Pete Rose will bet on it. St. Louis is really the only team in this division I think is worth a crap, although I will not be hugely surprised if the Brewers surprise some people.

National League West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. San Diego Padres
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks
  4. San Francisco Giants
  5. Colorado Rockies

The Dodgers and Padres were tied in wins last year but the Dodgers were a year younger on average so I’ll give them the edge, not that that means much. Juan Pierre will be more valuable in LA than he was in Wrigley. Arizona’s got some talent there. San Francisco will be interesting only to watch Steroid Man go for 756, which I honestly hope he doesn’t reach for the good of baseball. I have a feeling the Rockies will never, ever win anything as long as the franchise exists.

2

I totally agree about the Dodgers (what a surprise!). This is the year, baby! But there is no way the Yankees are going to win squat this year. The gods have spoken.

3

American League East

  1. Boston Red Sox
  2. Toronto Blue Jays
  3. New York Yankees
  4. Baltimore Orioles
  5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

RickJay has a bad feeling about Boston…I’ve got a bad feeling about the Yankees this year so I’ll go with Boston to win the division. The Blue Jays just aren’t there though I do have a little bit of hope for Zambrano (Victor) to have a decent year and hold down the end of the rotation. I think Baltimore’s pitching (Bedard, Loewen) will keep them barely ahead of Tampa Bay.

American League Central

  1. Cleveland Indians
  2. Chicago White Sox
  3. Detroit Tigers
  4. Minnesota Twins
  5. Kansas City Royals

Everyone seems to be in love with the Indians this year so I guess I am too. The White Sox will roll along as usual until Contreras retires halfway through the year to collect Social Security. Verlander will be down this year and Bonderman will be way, way up, it’s still equals about 87-89 wins. I’m going to disagree about the Twins rotation. After Santana and Bonser it looks pretty thin to me. Kansas City is Kansas City, at least Royals fans get to watch Teahen, Shealy and Gordon this year.

American League West

  1. Oakland Athletics
  2. Los Angeles Angels
  3. Texas Rangers
  4. Seattle Mariners

If I really wanted to I could flip the A’s and Angels and I could probably flip the Rangers and Mariners too. Comparing the two teams, it seems to me that the Angels shouldn’t have any problem winning the division especially with the offensive struggles that Oakland is going to have. Shannon Stewart? Are you kidding me? If Putz’s elbow strain is anything severe and the Mariners have to use Reitsma as a closer, they’re done.

National League East

  1. New York Mets
  2. Philadelphia Phillies
  3. Atlanta Braves
  4. Florida Marlins
  5. Washington Nationals

Don’t know nearly enough about the NL to make any reasonable commentary here.

National League Central

  1. St. Louis Cardinals
  2. Houston Astros
  3. Milwaukee Brewers
  4. Chicago Cubs
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates
  6. Cincinnati Reds

The Cubs stink and the Cardinals will run away with the pennant with a 83-81 record. This division stinks.

National League West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks
  3. San Diego Padres
  4. San Francisco Giants
  5. Colorado Rockies

I like the Diamondbacks to surprise everyone with their youth. Maybe enough to grab the wild card.

4

RickJay’s predictions mostly look reasonable, except you must have accidentally inverted the top four finishers in the AL Central. Cleveland does have a very good chance to finish fourth.

The Mets have an enormous question mark in terms of pitching (too old, too young or too injured) and are a better bet to win the wild card than the division (sorry to say, the Phils might squeak in this year).

I have high hopes for another Cubs’ flop this season.

Historically you’ve had a lot of “bad feelings” about the Red Sox, including this gem of a prediction from 10/4/04 about the chances of playoff-bound teams winning the World Series. :smiley:

Boston takes the wild card.

5

As an Indians fan, I’m terrified by this. They don’t do so hot when the pressure is on.

At least their bullpen should be improved. Can’t get much worse.

6

Toronto’s going into the season with 5 injury-prone starting pitchers(or 4 injury-prone starting pitchers and Josh Towers). I don’t even want to think about the upcoming season.

7

Correction: 3 injury-prone starting pitchers, 1 drunk and Josh Towers. They’ll pull it out.

8

I was under the impression that Chacin has had injury problems his last two seasons? I know that he missed significant time last season.

9

Can’t speak for Dallas, but few people INSIDE the Seattle metroplexes are likely going to care either. The fan population up here really enjoy their bandwagons.

10

Dodgers will fail as usual. Schmidt ain’t no ace and they will find that out quickly.

11

Perhaps the most specific (and predictable) of all: by 2008 A-Rod will no longer be a Yankee and baseball will be better for it. Let’s be honest, he was a bad fit from the start. Clearly he is a great player, perhaps one in a generation; but, he does not work in NY. Barring a break out and stellar year, he just does not fit. He talks too much, and like Hillary Clinton, every word out of his mouth just pisses off true New Yorkers.

12

I dunno much about baseball, but I predict that the Pirates are gonna suck again this year. (Dad used to be a fan and so I still listen to the scores on my way to work. I know they won *some *last year, but damn, I don’t recall ever hearing it.)

13

He did last year, the year before he was healthy.

Halladay seems healthy so I wouldn’t be any more worried about him than you are about any pitcher. The issue in Toronto is that the back end of the rotation is three spots and there’s seven pitchers competing for them (IMHO, Chacin’s a flash in the pan.) When you have that many pitchers competing for a limited number of sports there’s always a pretty good chance you’ll pick the wrong ones in March. After all, Josh Towers pitched okay in spring training in 2006.

Boston is still going to finish third. I concede this is partially because I detest them, their fans, and their ugly-ass city. But it’s nothing personal. :slight_smile:
(Let’s get smack talk going, oh yeahhhh)

14

I’m sure you meant to say “New York” there. Typos can happen to anybody.

15

I’m very suprised at the NL predictions; the Mets starting rotation is currently 42-year-old Tom Glavine, 40- or 50-year old El Duque (hurt again; what a shock), the glass-bodied Perdo Martinez, the decent-but-untested John Maine (yes, he beat Carpenter in the playoffs, but c’mon, who would you rather have) and the 3-13 disaster of Oliver Perez. Let’s face it, if Chan-Ho Park is competing in this rotation, the Mets have problems. The Phillies, on the other hand, added Freddy Garcia to an already-improving staff (Yes, Jamie Moyer is old, but Cole Hamels finished very strong–a lot of 7-8 inning, 0-2 run outings late in the year–and don’t underestimate Brett Myers, who led the league in strikeouts after the break), and has a lineup most teams would trade straight-up for. The Phillies could be a dynasty in the making (or as close as we can get to that these days), except for the fact they’re stuck in a division with the always-find-a-way Braves.

Anyone picking the Cardinals in the NL Central is either lazy or just incapable of evaluating the massive changes on the Cubs. The Soriano experiment in Chicago is a question mark, but there’s more upside than down there for the Cubs. Adding Mark DeRosa fills the void of Ronnie Cedeno, and remember Cesar Izturis is healthy now for SS (hopefully no more patchwork infield with borderline journeymen Freddy Bynum or Neifi Perez). Derek Lee missed over half the season on a freak contact injury; think he’ll add something to the offense? Cubs pitching is also better, if only because they’ve brought enough options into camp (Lilly, Jason Marquis, a healthy Wade Miller, a year-wiser Sean Marshall) that it’s no longer dependent on the fragile Wood (slated for the bullpen) and Prior (he’s going to the minors, mark my words). The Cubs are better in starting lineup, get back good hitters that were injured last year, and field a rotation that really can absorb an injury to a starter this season by fielding a real pitcher rather than patch with AAA call-ups like Juan Mateo or Carlos Marmol. There’s a lot of ground to make up, but anyone who thinks this is obviously a sub-.500 team is ignoring the facts, and remember the Cards won with only 83 wins last year (and this year they don’t have Jeff Suppan, Izzy is coming off hip surgery, and the aging Edmonds had foot and shoulder surgery). The Reds are more of a threat than the Cards.

16

I’ll take the Twins in the AL. With Santana,Liriano, Nathan, Morneau and Mauer that is a damn strong core of elite players.

17

Liriano had Tommy John surgery. I think he’s expected to miss all or most of the season.

18

Oh well, I still like the Twin chances.

19

Cleveland thanks you for your support.

20

sigh

Well, here come the Yankee-haters. That’s fine; enjoy it while you can. Enjoy it through the Yankees’ usual slow start. But come June, you will all know what the rest of us already do–the Yankees will be in the World Series, and will probably win it, judging from the potential NL opponents.

The Yankees’ weakest area has always been pitching. This year, with the likes of Pettite, Mussina, and Wang, possibly Kei Igawa (though the jury’s still out on him) and the strong possibility of Roger Clemens joining the team somewhere down the line, this is probably the best Yankees staff in a long time. Clemens at his age is still better than 3/4 of the pitchers in the league, Mussina is having a good spring, Wang, IMHO, hasn’t shown us half of what he can do–combine that with a healthy Pettite and you have the framework for a 100-win season. Carl Pavano is a waste of time as a starter–put him in the pen or just cut him loose.

I agree about A-Rod. Great as he is, he’s not a good fit in NY. The problem is how to get rid of him and actually get something back. I think a straight-up trade with LA for Nomar is the best idea–Nomar is better at third than A-Rod and certainly a better clutch hitter. Plus, LA doesn’t need him at first with James Loney in the lineup.

BTW, if the Dodgers do win the NL West, it’ll be because of Loney. This guy has superstar written all over him. I watched him play in AAA last year and believe me, he is the real deal!

Briefly:

AL East: see above
AL Central: White Sox
AL West: Angels
AL wildcard: Blue Jays

NL East: Marlins
NL Central: Astros
NL West: Dodgers
NL wildcard: Mets