Your 2007 MLB regular season predictions - how did you do?

[HoboStew]

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=412933&highlight=baseball+prediction

Here were mine:

@HoboStew

AL East:

1. Red Sox - I saw Dice-K in the WBC and he looked phenominal. I think he gets 18 wins this year. This might be the most loaded team in baseball top to bottom, with the possible exception of…
2. Yankees - Although if they get Clemens, I might swap them with Boston. One thing I don’t get about this whole A-Rod flap: I see people criticize him for saying it is up to the yankees and the fans if he is going to remain a yankee, because he is the one with the contract option and is in control of his destiny (Buster Olney for one made this argument). What I don’t get is this: if you worked for a company that didn’t like you and everyone in the city wanted you to leave, would you still want to work there? Either way, I don’t see any way they are missing the playoffs. No question in my mind the wild card comes from the East this year.
3. Blue Jays - The Frank Thomas signing might give these guys the edge over the Giants for the slowest team in baseball. They should score runs, but can their starting pitching hold up all season?
4. Orioles - In any other division, this would be my sleeper pick of the year. Bedard is a solid pitcher, and I think Cabrera finally emerges as a frontline starter this year. (ya ya, Ive been saying that for 2 years now, but this time I MEAN it!) I see them having a year similar to 2k5, where they start on fire and give their fans a glimmer of hope before fading in July/August. Which is too bad. I like this team.
5. Tampa Bay - And yet another year of the Carl Crawford era is wasted.

Nailed the order exactly, and got the wildcard, but then again who didn’t? DiceK wasn’t nearly as good as I thought. I called out Bedard who was almost a cy-young caliber pitcher this year, but completely whiffed on Cabrera for the last time. Thats it I am done with him. He stinks. I finally accept that.
Grade: A

@HoboStew

AL Central:

1. Twins - The loss of Liriano hurts, but they have a lot of good young pitching prospects so I think they will be able to cope. Their lineup should be able to hold its own.
2. Tigers - Adding Sheffield was the most underrated signing this off-season. The guy can flat out rake, which was the one thing they were missing last year. Their offense was productive but I couldn’t help but think it was all smoke & mirrors, and I think the WS exposed that. This might be the tightest division race in baseball.
3. Indians - Still one year and a couple quality starters away.
4. White Sox - Did nothing to improve from last year.
5. Royals - [bill simmons]I wish I could buy stock in things like “The Royals regret giving Gil Meche $55 million.”[/bill simmons] Shouldn’t they force GMs to take breathylizers before they sign people? This might be the worst run organization in all of professional sports.

I got spots 2,4,& 5 right. Didn’t count on the twins basically waving the white flag in June, causing Santana to essentially give up and have a career high ERA as a starter. This did not come close to the tightest division race in baseball, and Gil Meche actually turned out not to be as bad as I expected.
Grade: B-

@HoboStew

AL West:

1. A’s - OK this is my one irrational moment, a homer pick of the A’s to win the division. In reality for this to work out, we (they) need all of the following: A full season of healthy Harden (never has happened), full season of healthy Crosby(ditto), a bounceback season from Chavez (possible), and someone who can play first base and hit the ball, now that Swisher has to play outfield due to injuries. Catching all those will be a challenge.
2. Angels - Solid team with one of the better coaches in the game. Still, I get a Dan Snyder-esque feeling about the way Moreno runs this team. Giving $50 mil to a 32 year old outfielder who has had 1 good season in a contract year is a reach. Still, if they land Tejada they could run away with the division.
3. Rangers - Same old story with these guys. Good offense, no pitching. Will Millwood change things? Doubtful.
4. Mariners - Dark times ahead for these guys. No way Ichiro stays after this season, leaving them with nothing except Beltre & Sexson’s ludicrous contracts. I just wish the A’s could trade stadiums with them…

Complete whiff, although I did detail all the reasons the A’s would (& did) fail. Matthews was not a complete bust but not a $10 mil player, but it turns out Ichiro stayed after all.
Grade: F

@HoboStew

NL East:

1. Mets - Everyone’s picking the Phillies, but that team has been snakebit for so long, and I don’t think they are any better than they were last year. Of course, neither are the mets, but the mets won the division last year so I’ll pick em until they lose it.
2. Phillies - Unless Hamels becomes an ace, in which case they will take the east. I don’t think that will happen this year.
3. Marlins - There’s a lot to like about this team. Good young players in just about every position. I see them contending in 2k8.
4. Braves - Way too many questionmarks in their rotation. Not exactly the most fearsome lineup either, especially compared to the Philies and Mets.
5. Nationals - If they lose fewer than 100 games this year I will be shocked. Unlike the Royals, they at least seem to have a vague semblence of a plan. Just not exactly sure what it is.

Well Hamels was a top 15 pitcher, which I say qualifies him as an ‘ace’ allowing me to weasel my phillies prediction and pretend I correctly picked the top 2 and avoid another total whiff. The nats weren’t nearly as bad as I thought, although it almost looked like teams were trying to help them out by handing them people like Wily Mo Pena for free.
Grade: D

@HoboStew

NL Central:

1. Cubs - Against my better judgement. But missing Lee last season just killed them. Having him healthy, plus the $8 billion they spent this offseason should buy them at least a pennant. Will it buy them a WS appearance? Don’t bet on it…
2. Cardinals - Still can’t believe they won the WS. Are we sure that even happened? Anyways, as long as Carp and Pujols are healthy, they have a punchers chance. But I don’t think they can catch lightning in a bottle again.
3. Astros - I like the Lee signing for them, even if the tab was a lil steep. But they have such major pitching issues after Oswalt, someone on their organization actually said “Hey let’s see if we can bring Wade Miller back!”
4. Brewers - Kinda like the Marlins, I like their young players. Weeks & Fielder will be great on the Yankees in 4 years. A healthy Sheets will make them competitive.
5. Reds - Aaron Harang led the league in Ks and Wins last year, and didn’t even win the award for best pitcher on his own TEAM! These guys seem like someone fielded a MLB team based purely on roto stats.
6. Pirates - When Ian Snell is projected to be your #1 starter, lets just say you can probably go ahead and make those vacation plans for October.

Got the cubs, red, and pirates. I smelled the disaster for the cards in the wind, and I did say the brewers would be competetive, even if tho it wasn’t because Sheets was healthy (he wasn’t).
Grade: C+

@HoboStew

NL West:

1. Diamondbacks - Without question the crappiest division in baseball. Whoever wins this one is a mortal lock to lose in the first round. I like the Dbacks solely because of the Randy Johnson reunion/farewell tour. I still think he has 1 good season left in the tank. I also think one of their youngins (maybe conor jackson) will emerge this year.
2. Dodgers - A pretty solid all around team, but nothing great about them. Schmidt should be solid, but derek lowe as a #2?
3. Giants - They might be able to recover from the worst signing in MLB history (Zito for $126m) if Matt Cain emerges. Cain is my NL version of Daniel Cabrera, I’ve waited years for him, and now I think just maybe he can pull it all together. Of course the real story is how MLB handles Bonds breaking the home run record. I vote for Bud Selig handing him a giant baseball bat-shaped syringe.
4. Padres - A solid top 3 rotation of Peavy, Maddux, and Young. Some decent position players to back it up. I still don’t think they have figured out how to maximize the return on their cavernous ballpark. Get an outfield of guys like juan pierre, go after speed and defense and screw OPS. Just a thought.
5. Rockies - Holliday and Atkins look like future stars, but what a trainwreck of a starting rotation. Byun-Hyun Kim might crack the top 5, fer chrissakes!

Got the Diamondbacks, which I think is pretty impressive since they werent a favorite. The rest of the division… Not so good.
Grade: D+

Howd the rest of you guys fare?

[Not_A_Tame_Lion]

You can see for yourself from my pre-season predictions here from earlier this year.

I have the analysis back home, so I’m not entirely accurate–and I’m at work and don’t have time to look too closely–but I think I had 8 teams +/-3 of their win totals (pretty good), 6 teams where I was +/-10 or more (bad), and the rest fell somewhere in between (+/-4 to 9). Decent, but not super impressive. I picked 4 of the eight playoff teams, though only Philly and LA Angels as division winners (figured the Yankees for AL East champs and Cleveland for the wild card).

I think I could have done better if I’d had access to career stats when I made the predictions; then I could have gotten a better handle on everyone’s pitching staffs. (I only got broadband at home during this summer; didn’t have info at my fingertips in April.)

Overall, meh. Won’t stop me from trying again next year though.