2007 Major League Baseball Predictions Thread

Cafe Society
21

[QUOTE=CJJ*]
Anyone picking the Cardinals in the NL Central is either lazy or just incapable of evaluating the massive changes on the Cubs.
[/QUOTE]

I’ll bet you a year’s Dope subscription the Cubs don’t make the playoffs. This Cub frenzy is ridiculous; the team’s improvements amount to Soriano and Ted Lilly being added to what was not a mediocre team, but a really bad team. Cesar Izturis is healthy, whoop dee do.

Come on; if the Cubs make the playoffs I renew your SDMB subscription and if they don’t you renew mine, whaddya say?

22

[QUOTE=want2know]

I agree about A-Rod. Great as he is, he’s not a good fit in NY. The problem is how to get rid of him and actually get something back. I think a straight-up trade with LA for Nomar is the best idea–Nomar is better at third than A-Rod and certainly a better clutch hitter. Plus, LA doesn’t need him at first with James Loney in the lineup.

BTW, if the Dodgers do win the NL West, it’ll be because of Loney. This guy has superstar written all over him. I watched him play in AAA last year and believe me, he is the real deal!

[/QUOTE]

I agree. I like Nomar, but if Loney keeps getting better the way he is, a swap would benefit both teams greatly. It gets A-Rod out to a coast that will appreciate his contributions, and both teams keep a strong third baseman in the lineup. Now, if we can just convince both teams to let us handle the details… :smiley:

23

I am not ready to predict anything but the AL East so far. I will come back with the other 5 divisions later in the week or next week.

AL East:

  1. Yankees: Despite some questions on pitching, the line up is scary with a good hitting Catcher and a First baseman being the only weakness. An excellent 4th outfielder in Cabrera. Giambi no longer playing first will improve the defense.
    The Bullpen is very deep and Chris Britton will be starting the year in AAA Scranton*. The starting rotation starts strong with Wang, Pettite and Moose. Pavano and Kei Igawa are question marks but the Yanks have more depth in AAA this year then in a very long time. Rasner and Karstens could both fill in and pitch well enough and long enough for the Yankees offense to win more often than not and Phillip Hughes is the #1 pitching prospect that will start the year in AAA. As mentioned earlier, the Yanks are in the lottery for Rocket if a starter is needed.
  2. Boston: Very good line-up, not as good as the Yanks. Solid Starting rotation but a weak bullpen without a good closer.
  3. BlueJays: Coming together, I expect them to compete and keep the Yanks and RedSox honest.
    Not contending after July
  4. Tampa have little pitching and a lot of youth.
  5. Orioles have no pitching and little youth.

Jim

  • Yanks new AAA farm team is the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees.

Concerning A-Rod, I am not his biggest fan, but he is a far superior and healthier player than Garciaparra. Of course **Silenus ** likes the idea, Cashman would have to have a head injury to makes this trade.

24

[QUOTE=want2know]
I agree about A-Rod. Great as he is, he’s not a good fit in NY. The problem is how to get rid of him and actually get something back. I think a straight-up trade with LA for Nomar is the best idea–Nomar is better at third than A-Rod and certainly a better clutch hitter. Plus, LA doesn’t need him at first with James Loney in the lineup.
[/QUOTE]

I just… really? If you were Brian Cashman, you would make this trade? Nomar seems like a nice guy, and all, but he’s played a total of 34 games at third base in his entire career; I’m not sure I see where he’d be better at the position than Rodriguez. As a hitter, last year - in which Garciaparra had arguably the best season of his recent career and Rodriguez arguably the worst of his - Rodriguez still outperformed Garciaparra by any statistical standard by which you’d care to measure. And A-Rod is two years younger, and without the injury concerns.

As for the postseason, well, A-Rod’s last two postseason series have been not so good. In 2004, though, he went .421/.476/.737 against the Twins and then .258/.378/.516 in seven games against Boston. Nomar? Last year against the Mets a complete nonfactor, and .241/.290/.310 in 29 at bats against the Yankees in 2003.

I’m a Mets fan. I root against A-Rod as a matter of course. But I tell ya, the way the Yankees fan bag on the guy is just bizarre. He’s very probably the single best baseball player we’ve seen in my lifetime and he has 14 crappy at-bats against a hot pitching staff and the fans want to ship him out of town in exchange for a bag of balls. Weird.

Predictions:

AL EAST
**1. New York **
Andy Pettite is going to be their fourth starter in the postseason. Kill me now.
**2. Boston **
If everything breaks right, Schilling, Matsuzaka, The Blister, and Papelbon could manage to be almost as good as the Yankees’ front four. What an ALCS that could be, eh?
3. Toronto
Whoever said upthread that they’re holding out for Victor Zambrano… I hope you drink heavily. You will need it to survive.
4. Tampa Bay
Hey, they might actually be competitive if they’d sack up and trade one of their twelve outfielders for someone they can actually put in the rotation/lineup.
5. Baltimore
So where is Tejada going, anyway?

AL CENTRAL
1. Cleveland
Man, my picks are boring.
2. Chicago
Just because something about the Twins screams “In it until August 19” to me.
3. Minnesota
See above.
4. Detroit
There’s just no way they’re getting the same production out of some of those guys.
5. Kansas City
What, RickJay, you’re not aboard the Ross Gload/Gil Meche express? Ryan Shealy was getting some good reviews a year ago. What? No? OK.

AL WEST
1. Los Anaheim
I think they’re going to end up with another big name in their lineup before the end of July. Maybe Tejada, maybe someone else, but they have a bunch of prospects to trade and this seems like the year they’re either going to actually do it, or watch the value of those prospects decline.
2. Oakland
Yeah, I don’t know, I’m not really seeing it. Billy Beane seems to have slipped back to the pack, somehow, because some of his moves look wonky to me.
3. Texas
Lineup looks like fun, though.
4. Seattle
Bad team. It looks like it could be really, really, special bad.

NL EAST
1. Philadelphia
And I’m a Mets’ fan. I want to believe. I do. But I think Philly wins it, and I don’t even know if it’s going to be close. Philly has six options to start; the Mets have Chan Ho Park.
2. New York
And Oliver Perez. And Aaron Sele. And Aaron Heilman - oh, no wait, can’t give him a try as a starter, in spite of the fact that he’s obviously a better pitcher than Chan Freaking Ho Park, because Willie Randolph is the decider, and he’s decided Heilman’s not a starter, so even if we’re going to be running Sid Fernandez out there next, Heilman remains… never mind. My issues.
3. Florida
I think they’ll actually continue to be good. I can’t see them taking the division, but I’ll hate it every time they come to town.
4. Washington
Is this the worst team in baseball? It kind of has to be, doesn’t it? Their best hitter is, what, Austin Kearns? Who all is even going to pitch for them? This could be historic.
5. Atlanta
Because I hate them.

NL CENTRAL
1. Milwaukee
Hey, what the hell? Everyone else in this division bites, so why not?
2. St. Louis
They’re really just the same team that barely slipped into the postseason last year, right? Why should this year be any different?
3. Chicago
RickJay - in fairness to those picking Chicago to win the division, it’s not just that they added Soriano and Lilly; it’s that they basically also added Derek Lee, from whom they got only 175 AB last year. They’ll be better, I think - solidly around .500.
4. Houston
They look crappy to me. Their rotation is still basically Roy Oswalt and a bunch of guys, who the heck knows what Brad Lidge is going to be, and Brad Ausmus and Craig Biggio are still around sucking up at bats.
5. Pittsburgh
But the park is beautiful.

NL WEST
1. Los Angeles
Stealth good team.
2. San Diego
I don’t know this division very well.
3. Arizona
But I know that the Diamondbacks are heading in the right direction,
4. San Francisco
And the Giants are not.
5. Colorado
They should have traded Todd Helton.

Hey, this is fun.

25

[QUOTE=CJJ*]
Anyone picking the Cardinals in the NL Central is either lazy or just incapable of evaluating the massive changes on the Cubs.
[/QUOTE]

I was wondering when we would get an objective opinion about the NL Central. :smiley:

AL East: Boston (Superior pitching to the Yankees)
AL Central: Chicago
AL West : Oakland (this is the real toss-up division. No real front runner)
AL Wild Card: New York
NL East: Philly (if pitching can hold up, and if Howard can get some protection)
NL Central: St. Louis (don’t worry about the WS hangover)
NL West: LA ( Only thing missing is a power bat, but plenty of arms to trade for one)
NL Wild Card: New York
World Series: St. Louis over Boston :slight_smile:

26

Since everyone else has weighed in on this A-Rod deal, I may as well too; the complaints about him are ridiculous and it’s time for New York fans to shut their cakeholes. Oooh, he doesn’t get along with Derek, ooooh.

If you trade him you have a worse third baseman no matter what. No team in baseball will take A-Rod and given New York something of equal value in return, because of the price tag. Keeping A-Rod makes the Yankees better than trading him, and that’s all there is to it. His so-called problems will be forgotten the moment he has his next hot streak.

27

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
I’m a Mets fan. I root against A-Rod as a matter of course. But I tell ya, the way the Yankees fan bag on the guy is just bizarre. He’s very probably the single best baseball player we’ve seen in my lifetime and he has 14 crappy at-bats against a hot pitching staff and the fans want to ship him out of town in exchange for a bag of balls. Weird.

**1. New York **
Andy Pettite is going to be their fourth starter in the postseason. Kill me now.

[/QUOTE]

Good analyisis of the trade mentioned:
I am a big time Yankee fan, ask anyone. See my addendum about A-Rod above. Most of us would not want a trade like the one mentioned.

As far as Andy, he is really #2. Wang, Pettite, Moose, Igawa, Pavano and Jeff Karstens are the 1-6 starters. Wang is definite. Moose and Pettite could flip flop, the bottom 3 could flipflop. The 6th man is the long reliever.

Jim

28

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
Good analyisis of the trade mentioned:
I am a big time Yankee fan, ask anyone. See my addendum about A-Rod above. Most of us would not want a trade like the one mentioned.

As far as Andy, he is really #2. Wang, Pettite, Moose, Igawa, Pavano and Jeff Karstens are the 1-6 starters. Wang is definite. Moose and Pettite could flip flop, the bottom 3 could flipflop. The 6th man is the long reliever.

Jim
[/QUOTE]

Well, bear in mind that I’m including in my figuring your real number one starter for the postseason, who just happens to be playing Hamlet at the present moment. I figure it’ll shake out like this:

  1. Hamlet
  2. Wang
  3. Mussina
  4. Pettite

Which, honestly, would make for an awesome LCS with Boston, should things get to that point.

I mean,

Schilling v. Hamlet?
Matsuzaka v. Wang?
Beckett v. Mussina?
Papelbon v. Beckett?

I’d watch.

29

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]

Beckett v. Mussina?
Papelbon v. Beckett?

I’d watch.
[/QUOTE]

Oooh…with a plot twist like that I’d watch too.

BTW, I don’t really think I need to drink too heavily in regards to Zambrano. He’s nothing more than a fifth starter and he can’t be any worse than Josh Towers was last year.

30

[QUOTE=RickJay]
I’ll bet you a year’s Dope subscription the Cubs don’t make the playoffs. This Cub frenzy is ridiculous; the team’s improvements amount to Soriano and Ted Lilly being added to what was not a mediocre team, but a really bad team. Cesar Izturis is healthy, whoop dee do.

Come on; if the Cubs make the playoffs I renew your SDMB subscription and if they don’t you renew mine, whaddya say?
[/QUOTE]

I’ll take that bet, assuming of course the Cubs can win the wild card behind St. Louis and give me the free year. I’ll probably need a reminder on this once the Cubs clinch :slight_smile: Let me send you a private message with my email…

Last year was a disaster for the Cubs, but not in the same way KC or TB is a disaster. The injuries exposed three key points:

(1) The Cubs really had no backup plan to cover the loss of key players. For me, this off-season was successful not for the Soriano signing, but for a host of other smaller-name players (Cliff Floyd, Darryl Ward, Mark De Rosa) who can plug holes if/when injuries take their toll. Role-players don’t usually win you a pennant, but they can keep the ship afloat until players come back and give you a better margin for error.

(2) To a certain extent, the loss of Derek Lee exposed Aramis Ramirez’s inability to be the #1 offensive guy in the lineup; in short he can’t carry this team the way Lee can. That’s why a healthy Lee this year means so much more than just putting another 35HR/100RBI in the lineup; his presence takes the pressure off Ramirez, who though he wasn’t that bad last year went into proplonged funks without Lee in the lineup.

(3) Wood and Prior cannot give you consistent innings, but they (well, Wood at least) can still contribute. I think the Cubs started 15 different pitchers last year, and a lot of that was due to the holes that needed to be plugged with the intermittent loss of Wood and Prior. Say what you will about Ted Lilly and Wade Miller, but they allow the Cubs to groom real options in case of injury instead of rolling the dice with yet another AAA flyer. In short, I think a stable rotation yields dividends beyond just the pitcheer’s individual stats.

31

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
Well, bear in mind that I’m including in my figuring your real number one starter for the postseason, who just happens to be playing Hamlet at the present moment.
[/QUOTE]

BTW, is it just me or is anyone else tired of the breathless wait for the latest dispatches from Mt. Clemens? If he is Hamlet, let’s hope he meets the same fate with the Yankees this season (baseball-wise, of course; that’s not an invitation for some baseball Laertes to charge from the dugout with a poisoned sword :slight_smile:

32

[QUOTE=CJJ*]
BTW, is it just me or is anyone else tired of the breathless wait for the latest dispatches from Mt. Clemens? If he is Hamlet, let’s hope he meets the same fate with the Yankees this season (baseball-wise, of course; that’s not an invitation for some baseball Laertes to charge from the dugout with a poisoned sword :slight_smile:
[/QUOTE]

I am not counting on Hamlet reappearing in pinstripes and watch out, the Yanks are getting better. By next year the team could be really scary.

Jim

33

Some good calls in your predictions, **RickJay. **

I see Cleveland stepping up this year, too. Detroit had a very nice time last year and all that, but out of nowhere teams tend to go back to nowhere very quickly. Minnesota will do the usual, scratch and claw to get a high rung on the ladder, but Cleveland has some really nice talent on the field.

And I think Boston is a good pick for third; folks have to remember that with the Red Sox, it’s not necessarily the talent on the field that matters–the psychology of the team and city play a role, too. (Close your eyes and try to hear the wailing that will go up the first time Dice-K doesn’t make it past the 5th inning for the third start in a row.) NY reaps the bounty, again.

I hope you’re right about the A’s, but I’m sure one of these days B’rer Beane will not escape through the briar patch. Oh, and the Angels’ stadium is not off 405; it’s much closer to I-5 and just off the 57 freeway. Remember, Google Maps are your friends. Anyhoo, I’ll go with the A’s, just so I have a reason to go out to the park a few times this year.

I think storyteller’s on to something with the Cardinals. They really are the same team that just squeaked in. Was that late-season nosedive a fluke, or was the postseason performance the fluke? Normally I’d say the former, because St. Louis has been a consistent postseason team…but I just get this gut feeling that things won’t hold. I don’t have the onions to pick Milwaukee, nor Cincinnati, the Pirates are still the Pirates (heartbreaking, considering what that franchise used to be), and I’m not fooled by the Cubs (remember how Dusty Baker was going to take them to the Series not so long ago?), so I guess I’ll say Houston in the Central.

History lesson: when the Mets are good, they tend not to stay that way for very long. Here comes the crash. I hope the Phillies can take advantage, but they’ve been disappointing me for about 8 years in a row now. I’ll pick Philly, but I fear and loathe what might happen if the Marlins bring up their next 17 great prospects, sometime around June.

The West is going to be a three team dogfight between LA, SD and Arizona. I have no idea who will win. I know it won’t be the Giants (the reward for arrogance, richly deserved), and I consider Colorado about as hopeless as any team in the majors.

Can’t wait for the season to start. Two more weeks and I’ll be smiling like a butcher’s dog.

34

[QUOTE=What Exit?]
I am not counting on Hamlet reappearing in pinstripes and watch out, the Yanks are getting better. By next year the team could be really scary.

Jim
[/QUOTE]

Really? All joking aside, I’d bet a shiny new nickel that we’ll see Roger Clemens in a uniform without a name on the back before the beginning of August. He’s definitely coming back somewhere; if he didn’t plan to come riding in on his horse to some team’s rescue, he wouldn’t be dithering quite so visibly. Only a very few teams would even have a hope of paying him what he’d want - the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Rangers, I guess, and the Astros. I think the Astros are going to be not so good this year, so that cuts them out. The Rangers, ditto. That narrows it down to the Yankees versus the Sox, and the Yankees went and signed Clemens’ BFF to help make up his mind for him.

If he goes to Boston for some reason, they win the AL East by 5 games.

Not a Tame Lion, I don’t know that I’d anticipate a true crash for the Mets - they’re not going to lose more games than they win, unless something shocking happens. Their lineup is very probably the best in the National League, particularly if Moises Alou can somehow squeeze 110 games or so into his busy schedule of being old and injury-prone; Reyes, Delgado, Wright, and Beltran are all legit stars right now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of the nonentities on the Mets’ pitching staff win a surprising number of games - say, John Maine finishes 17-9 on the strength of a lot of 6-inning, 4-run efforts in which the Mets score 9 or 10. At worst they’ll finish second, probably get the wildcard, and then take their chances with a returning Pedro, Glavine, and whoever they finally trade Milledge and poor, poor Aaron Heilman to get. Of course, the Mets could probably afford to sign Clemens…

So no one likes me calling the NL Central for Milwaukee? Anyone? Anyone?

35

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
So no one likes me calling the NL Central for Milwaukee? Anyone? Anyone?
[/QUOTE]

Hey, I gave them mild props. Milwaukee does have young talent.

David Bush has a good chance to be the next great NL pitcher. You heard it here first; he’s gonna have at least one Cy Young type season before 2011. His K/W numbers make me drool.

36

[QUOTE=RickJay]
His K/W numbers make me drool.
[/QUOTE]

K/BB?

37

[QUOTE=RickJay]
I guess it’s sort of shocking I’m picking the defending league champions (Detroit) to finish fourth
[/QUOTE]
Typically, I wouldn’t argue with you on factual matters, but as a Twins fan, I need to comment. Minnesota was the AL Central champ last year. Detroit was the wild card.

As far a predictions go, the AL Central is the only one I’m qualified to opine on, and frankly, I think it’s a crap shoot. The only team that would really be a surprise would be Kansas City. Of the other four, I think the Twins and White Sox are probably the most likely. For the first time in a while, the Twins have serious questions in their starting rotation. They do have the AL’s best bullpen & they’re really going to need it this year. The Sox had starting problems of their own last year, but I fully expect them to rebound. I’ll be shocked if Buehrle in particular doesn’t regain form.

As far as predictions, I’ll bet on the Twins offense this year.

  1. Twins
  2. White Sox
  3. Tigers
  4. Indians
  5. Royals
38

AL Central:
**Detroit ** repeats followed closely by
Whitesox Solid pitching will keep them in the race, solid hitters but not enough.
Indians Slightly better than the
Twins who might trade Santana and/or Hunter by July 31st.

**KC ** for the worst team in the majors!

AL West
**Oakland ** in a coin toss over the
Angels
**Rangers ** will be a little over .500
**Seattle ** will probably be under .400, will they trade Itchy?

NL East
**Phillies ** have the better team right now. Plenty of hitters and enough starts and a solid bullpen.
**Mets ** start the season weak in pitching and great on offense. They will hit enough to stay in contention and trade for a big starter in July and then get Pedro back. I pick them for the Wild Card.
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

NL Central
**Cubs ** do have more pitching and hitting then the Cards but lack defense.
**Cards ** are overrated as I do not see where they are getting their starts from.
**Astros ** if they stay in it long enough to lure Clemens back they could put a scare in the Cubs and Cards but I also see them started slow enough to let the
**Reds ** sneak into third.
**Brewers ** are over-rated. Where’s the team?
**Pittsburgh ** is the Pitt again. I believe the NL Worst.

NL West
I hate to say it as **Silenus ** will like it too much, but …

**Dodgers ** over
San Diego
**Zona **
Giants
**Rockies ** stink again, but better then Pitt.

I could see Clemens coming back to the Yanks, but I could also see Phillip Hughes coming up in June riding that famous white charger.

AL Wild Card is between Red Sox, White Sox and Blue Jays. I think the Redsox will take it by virtue of beating up the Rays and the O’s.

Jim

39

[QUOTE=Ass For A Hat]
Typically, I wouldn’t argue with you on factual matters, but as a Twins fan, I need to comment. Minnesota was the AL Central champ last year. Detroit was the wild card.
[/QUOTE]

Upon a re-read, you were referring to Detroit as the AL champs, not the central division champs. Sorry about that.

40

Lordy, ots of Tiger hating. They’re in the toughest division in baseball, but they won’t be below third place. The Indians have a solid offense. Their bullpen? Not so much.

The Central Division is going to come down to whomever has the strong finish, much like last year. It’s going to be like this for a few more years, maybe with the White Sox trailing off first, assuming no trades are made. The bottom line is that pitching is going to win this division.

Prediction:

White Sox
Tigers
Twins
That Other Team
Does Anyone Care?

White Sox and Tigers make the postseason. The Twins will miss despite getting over 90 wins. The Indians trade Victor Martinez to the Yankees for a left-handed bat and 14 assorted flavored condoms.

The question marks come in with injuries and age. Will Thome let both get a hold of him? Will Joe Crede take a step up? (I think he will) Can Jermaine Dye put together another awesome year? Is Jose Contreras going to put out another year like the last one?

Do the Tigers need another bat? There are small pitching worries, like whether or not Rogers has anything left in the tank or what happens if Verlander goes down, but there’s a crazy surplus of good-to-great young arms here.

Is Garza going to shape up for the Twins? Are they going to rely on offense and the Santana-bullpen-closer formula? Who’s going to have the key injury? (No offense, just a bad feeling)

Who’s going to make the big trade(s)? How many questions can I ask? Is my finger stuck on the question mark key???

(What Exit?, karma struck in the Dope baseball league. I drafted 5 Yankees, bitching the entire time.)