I’ll let you know what I think in November.
Well, it definitely starts with the pitching. As RickJay notes, Dave Bush looks like a pretty damn good pitcher. His K/BB ratio was in the neighborhood of 4.5:1 last year - he just doesn’t walk people very much. Chris Capuano is similarly good. And these two are #s 2 and 3 in the rotation, respectively; there’s also Ben Sheets, who if he’s healthy could be an actual ace. Put the three of them together, and add in a consistent innings eater like Jeff Suppan, and you could construct an argument that the Brewers might have one of the two or three best rotations in the National League.
Or at least in the NL Central. In Chicago, Ted Lilly is not as good as Capuano, Jason Marquis is just not good, and Rich Hill has never pitched 100 innings in the majors (Zambrano is obviously good).
In St. Louis, they’re counting on Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright, which could work out, but there’s no real track record either way; their second starter is listed on their website as Kip Wells. Seriously.
In Houston, after Roy Oswalt, Jason Jennings is fine, I guess, but Woody Williams is a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t strike anybody out, moving into Pitcher Hell, and can you even name their other two starters? I can, but only because I just checked their website.
The Reds and Pirates we’ll exclude from this discussion, because they’re not going to be competitive anyway.
So. The Brewers have the best rotation, 1-4, in the division. Offensively they have Prince Fielder, who put up very nice numbers as a 23 year old rookie, Bill Hall, who is awesome, and a bunch of young players who could be very good: Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart. Plus a bunch of spare parts that are useful: Kevin Mench, Corey Koskie, Geoff Jenkins, Tony Graffanino. It’s not the best lineup in the division, but if they can pull off a midseason trade and get a player on the level of Carlos Lee (who they acquired for a boatload of nothing a few years back), it could potentially be. Remember, St. Louis is still giving perfectly good at bats to Yadier Molina (OBP < .300), Adam Kennedy, and Juan Encarnacion (.269/.316/.441), so they’re not exactly the '61 Yankees.
The Brewers will be a fun team to watch, and probably will finish over .500 for the first time in years, possibly even contending. I’m not quite sold on Bush or Capuano–if only because they seem to give up the long ball alot–and even if he’s helathy (a big if), Sheet’s best days are behind him. We also have to remember that the Brewers finished with and ERA over 5 last year, lowest in the NL, so let’s not call them the division’s best just yet (they’re definitely on the upswing though).
The Brewer bullpen is their potential Achilles heel. I’m not sold on the Turnbow turnaround, and which Francisco Cordero will show up this year? These two guys are, IMO, the key to the Brewers’ succes in 2007
No broad predictions, except to disagree with What Exit? about the Royals being the worst team in the majors this year.
Figure it out: last year, the Royals had 31 BLOWN SAVES. 31 games that, despite Redman and Elarton and Michelin-Man Hernandez at the top of the rotation, they were in a position to win, going to the bullpen! If all the Royals changed from last year were to put Eric Gagne vintage 2004 in the closer spot, their record would have been 92-70!!!
Now, Octavio Dotel is no old Gagne, he’s no Mariano Rivera, he’s not even Joe Borowski. But I don’t think he’ll be worse than an average MLB closer, and that alone will be a tremendous improvement over Burgos and Sisco, both of whom are gone. Add the improved starting rotation (Meche may not really be ace material, but he’s closer to it than Redman was; Bannister seems very good, Grienke seems to be back to normal) and an improved lineup (Gordon seems to be a lock for 3B this year, full season of Shealy) and what you’ve got is certainly better than at least the Orioles, Devil Rays, Pirates and Nationals, possibly the Mariners as well. Granted it’s damning by faint praise, but I’m making a prediction here, OK?
Despite all the improvement, I can’t see it being enough to lift them out of the AL Central cellar, just because the other 4 teams are that much better. Unless the Indians lose 3 key players in a spring-training boating accident, I can’t see any team in the division that doesn’t look better.
Ack.
The Cards’ pitching for this season is a big question mark, but I have some faith in pitching coach Dave Duncan; and what little I’ve read about how spring training has been going gives me hope. So I predict another good year for the Cardinals.
I see where the Pirates, Nationals and Mariners will compete for the bottom, but Tampa has a very good line-up compared to KC and Baltimore appears more talented top to bottom without having enough talent to really compete.
The Pirates could take the title for the worst team and the Nationals only look a little better.
BTW: Your saves theory has some holes in it, not all of the 31 blown saves came in the 9th. Give the bad setup guys their credit please. You need more than just an improved closer.
storyteller0910: Thanks for the info on the Brewers. They need to do it on the field and not on paper to convince me. Too many unproven guys to pick them for the division. If you are right, it should make for an interesting season in the NL Central.
Jim
I don’t know how I became Mr. Brewer here, but what the heck?
I’m not sure I agree about Sheets’ best days being behind him. Ben Sheets will turn 29 during the coming season, so he’s not exactly ancient. Last year, his strikeout rate (8.9) was as good as it’s ever been, and his walk rate has steadily declined over the past five years or so. His ERA looked funky last year (3.82), but he gave up more hits than usual on balls in play, and I’d expect that to rebound. If he’s healthy, which as you say is a huge if, I see no reason why we should expect him to decline.
What the hell is flukey about the Tigers. The best pitching in baseball with more arms stockpiled. For years people have waited for Rogers to implode but he was the best pitcher in the playoffs and World Series. That was at the end of the long ,long season. However their division is still the toughest to come out of. I see Chicago as the main threat. It will come down to injuries and luck.
Red Sox to beat Yankees this year. They just can not get along in NYC.
The boring rest will be Mets, Cardinals, and Arizona.
What Exit?
I’ll admit I’m oversimplifying a little there, but a save can’t be blown if it’s not a save opportunity, and anyone in a save opportunity is by definition in position to close the game. Perhaps that’s a semantic legacy of when closers were not always ninth-inning specialists, but there’s decent likelihood that if the 7th or 8th inning pitcher held the lead, he might have been kept in.
That said, even including setup men, the Royals have done a good job of purging the save-blowers from their ranks. Of 31 save opportunities blown by the Royals last year, 21 were blown by Ambiorix Burgos, Andrew Sisco and Elmer Dessens (the last two being setup men, so I’m not ignoring them), all of whom have been dealt. No one else had more than two.
And I do not agree that the Devil Rays have a very good lineup. To me, they look like the same lineup that finished a game worse than the Royals last year, and the Royals have made clear improvements. The Orioles might be better than that, I guess, but aside from Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada, I don’t see strength. Pitching-wise, Erik Bedard has good potential. But of course, what affects the O’s’ and Rays’ records more than anything else is that they play so many games against the Yankees and Red Sox.
I think this is how it’ll turn out. But from what I’ve been reading about Ron Washington, and how he’s been running his spring camp, I suspect the Rangers will be somewhat better than expected during the first half of the season. They don’t have the pitching, so they’ll fade in the stretch as they realize they still can’t quite contend and get down to grinding, but I smell a hint of a surprise from their vicinity. Washington’s the real deal, and could work wonders with a better team.
And the Mariners are going to suuuuuuuu-uck. Bavasi is a fucking moron.
Howard Lincoln is an even bigger moron.
There once was chairman named “Lincoln”
Who ignored deals he should have been inkin’
So the Skipper one day
Left to join Tampa Bay
Jesus Christ, Howard, what were you thinkin’?
Disgruntled Mariners fan since 1977.
I hear what you’re saying about the Mets, storyteller, but again, I just refer to the history. I don’t argue that the players are quality, in the lineup and the rotation, but the Mets have had teams like that before and didn’t get it done. There’s a very fine chemical balance that you need in New York; just fielding a lineup of well-bought all-stars isn’t enough. The Yankees routinely get away with that shit, but they’re the Yankees; the Mets have rarely had that kind of mojo. In other towns, teams sink because they play bad; in New York, just about anything can be the spark that brings a team down. Maybe more weird shit will hit the papers about LoDuca, and he’ll take a swing at somebody in the locker room, and then all hell breaks loose. You can’t just look at stats when gauging NY teams.
cmkeller, don’t get your hopes to high on Dotel. He was shaky enough here in Oakland that the A’s felt good about replacing him with a rookie (Huston Street, which turned out to be a good call). If I remember right, his fastball is very straight–those blown save numbers might remain very high in KC. (And by the way, that shit about a boating accident was pretty cold. Don’t be surprised if you get visited by the Ghosts of Indians Past some night soon…)
Cervaise, you make a good observation: lots of A’s players swear by Ron Washington, and he may make a difference in Texas. The local broadcasts frequently had him on the mike, and he’s a sharp baseball man who knows how to get a lot out of his players. He’s especially good working on defense, and is the guy who made Chavez a Gold Glove third baseman. But he’s not a pitching coach, so who knows how much difference he can make with the Rangers. Still, it’s good to see him have the opportunity.
Oh, don’t doubt for a moment that I know it; I still remember Frank Viola and Eddie Murray and Bobby Bonilla and Rickey Henderson and (later) Matt Lawton and Robbie Alomar and all of them… the only thing that gives me hope is that this Mets team is not really built the same way those teams were built. Those teams did exactly what you describe: assembled a bunch of pricey All-Stars in one fell swoop; when they failed, here come five new pricey All-Stars to fail again.
But this team has been building slowly, adding a piece at a time. Unlike those older teams, two of the core players - Wright and Reyes - have been with the franchise for their entire careers. They added Beltran, gave him a season to acclimate. Then they added Delgado and crazy-ass LoDuca. They haven’t just imported all-stars, either; Minaya’s been good about putting low-cost role players who can contribute - John Valentin, Endy Chavez, Ramon Castro, Anderson Hernandez - on the roster and on the bench. Glavine’s been a Met for a while now and seems to fit in. Alou’s not really a superstar; he’s a pretty professional hitter who, when healthy, has always been incredibly consistent and seems like a good fit in that way.
They’ve been measured and careful. They didn’t panic and trade Wright or Reyes for two months of Barry Zito or some such, which the old regimes would have (remember, a few summers ago, Jim Duquette traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, which, ack). They dealt Kris Benson and got back John Maine as a throw-in, and he looks like a good and cheap back-of-the-rotation guy at this point. It hasn’t been that whole WEHAVETOWINTHEWORLDSERIESRIGHTNOW thing that killed this team in the past.
In short, hope springs eternal, and all that. Happy spring…
Yeah, your analysis may prove correct. The current team isn’t quite as slap-dash as the past teams have been. But still…like I said, NY can do things to a team, even a good team. Everyone thought the New York Football Giants were going to win the Super Bowl last year–how’d that work out? Even without injuries, there’s always a chance the natural, environmentally-created sniping will drag the team down. But you may be right…
I’ll give you this: I’ve been waiting for the Phillies (the team of my youth) to take that division for about 10 years now, and it still hasn’t happened, so I guess the Mets (multiple postseasons since 2000) are ahead of the game there.
In his WS start Carpenter had almost an identical line (1 more hit allowed and 3 less BB) compared to Rodgers .
There was also the whole Pine-tar incident
Ohboyohboyohboy loves me some BASEBALL! Here’s my hastily researched $0.02:
AL
East:
- Red Sox - I saw Dice-K in the WBC and he looked phenominal. I think he gets 18 wins this year. This might be the most loaded team in baseball top to bottom, with the possible exception of…
- Yankees - Although if they get Clemens, I might swap them with Boston. One thing I don’t get about this whole A-Rod flap: I see people criticize him for saying it is up to the yankees and the fans if he is going to remain a yankee, because he is the one with the contract option and is in control of his destiny (Buster Olney for one made this argument). What I don’t get is this: if you worked for a company that didn’t like you and everyone in the city wanted you to leave, would you still want to work there? Either way, I don’t see any way they are missing the playoffs. No question in my mind the wild card comes from the East this year.
- Blue Jays - The Frank Thomas signing might give these guys the edge over the Giants for the slowest team in baseball. They should score runs, but can their starting pitching hold up all season?
- Orioles - In any other division, this would be my sleeper pick of the year. Bedard is a solid pitcher, and I think Cabrera finally emerges as a frontline starter this year. (ya ya, Ive been saying that for 2 years now, but this time I MEAN it!) I see them having a year similar to 2k5, where they start on fire and give their fans a glimmer of hope before fading in July/August. Which is too bad. I like this team.
- Tampa Bay - And yet another year of the Carl Crawford era is wasted.
Central:
- Twins - The loss of Liriano hurts, but they have a lot of good young pitching prospects so I think they will be able to cope. Their lineup should be able to hold its own.
- Tigers - Adding Sheffield was the most underrated signing this off-season. The guy can flat out rake, which was the one thing they were missing last year. Their offense was productive but I couldn’t help but think it was all smoke & mirrors, and I think the WS exposed that. This might be the tightest division race in baseball.
- Indians - Still one year and a couple quality starters away.
- White Sox - Did nothing to improve from last year.
- Royals - [bill simmons]I wish I could buy stock in things like “The Royals regret giving Gil Meche $55 million.”[/bill simmons] Shouldn’t they force GMs to take breathylizers before they sign people? This might be the worst run organization in all of professional sports.
West:
- A’s - OK this is my one irrational moment, a homer pick of the A’s to win the division. In reality for this to work out, we (they) need all of the following: A full season of healthy Harden (never has happened), full season of healthy Crosby(ditto), a bounceback season from Chavez (possible), and someone who can play first base and hit the ball, now that Swisher has to play outfield due to injuries. Catching all those will be a challenge.
- Angels - Solid team with one of the better coaches in the game. Still, I get a Dan Snyder-esque feeling about the way Moreno runs this team. Giving $50 mil to a 32 year old outfielder who has had 1 good season in a contract year is a reach. Still, if they land Tejada they could run away with the division.
- Rangers - Same old story with these guys. Good offense, no pitching. Will Millwood change things? Doubtful.
- Mariners - Dark times ahead for these guys. No way Ichiro stays after this season, leaving them with nothing except Beltre & Sexson’s ludicrous contracts. I just wish the A’s could trade stadiums with them…
NL
East:
- Mets - Everyone’s picking the Phillies, but that team has been snakebit for so long, and I don’t think they are any better than they were last year. Of course, neither are the mets, but the mets won the division last year so I’ll pick em until they lose it.
- Phillies - Unless Hamels becomes an ace, in which case they will take the east. I don’t think that will happen this year.
- Marlins - There’s a lot to like about this team. Good young players in just about every position. I see them contending in 2k8.
- Braves - Way too many questionmarks in their rotation. Not exactly the most fearsome lineup either, especially compared to the Philies and Mets.
- Nationals - If they lose fewer than 100 games this year I will be shocked. Unlike the Royals, they at least seem to have a vague semblence of a plan. Just not exactly sure what it is.
Central:
- Cubs - Against my better judgement. But missing Lee last season just killed them. Having him healthy, plus the $8 billion they spent this offseason should buy them at least a pennant. Will it buy them a WS appearance? Don’t bet on it…
- Cardinals - Still can’t believe they won the WS. Are we sure that even happened? Anyways, as long as Carp and Pujols are healthy, they have a punchers chance. But I don’t think they can catch lightning in a bottle again.
- Astros - I like the Lee signing for them, even if the tab was a lil steep. But they have such major pitching issues after Oswalt, someone on their organization actually said “Hey let’s see if we can bring Wade Miller back!”
- Brewers - Kinda like the Marlins, I like their young players. Weeks & Fielder will be great on the Yankees in 4 years. A healthy Sheets will make them competitive.
- Reds - Aaron Harang led the league in Ks and Wins last year, and didn’t even win the award for best pitcher on his own TEAM! These guys seem like someone fielded a MLB team based purely on roto stats.
- Pirates - When Ian Snell is projected to be your #1 starter, lets just say you can probably go ahead and make those vacation plans for October.
West:
- Diamondbacks - Without question the crappiest division in baseball. Whoever wins this one is a mortal lock to lose in the first round. I like the Dbacks solely because of the Randy Johnson reunion/farewell tour. I still think he has 1 good season left in the tank. I also think one of their youngins (maybe conor jackson) will emerge this year.
- Dodgers - A pretty solid all around team, but nothing great about them. Schmidt should be solid, but derek lowe as a #2?
- Giants - They might be able to recover from the worst signing in MLB history (Zito for $126m) if Matt Cain emerges. Cain is my NL version of Daniel Cabrera, I’ve waited years for him, and now I think just maybe he can pull it all together. Of course the real story is how MLB handles Bonds breaking the home run record. I vote for Bud Selig handing him a giant baseball bat-shaped syringe.
- Padres - A solid top 3 rotation of Peavy, Maddux, and Young. Some decent position players to back it up. I still don’t think they have figured out how to maximize the return on their cavernous ballpark. Get an outfield of guys like juan pierre, go after speed and defense and screw OPS. Just a thought.
- Rockies - Holliday and Atkins look like future stars, but what a trainwreck of a starting rotation. Byun-Hyun Kim might crack the top 5, fer chrissakes!
Can’t wait for opening day!
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OK, so I did a (very little) bit of number crunching this weekend, and I came up with these actual, real-live, honest to goodness predictions of who will finish where this season. In a few cases I have contradicted myself from upthread, notably in the Central divisions; that’s mainly due to a closer look at the stats. It goes like this:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
CENTRAL
Milwaukee 91-71
Chicago 84-78
St. Louis 80-82
Houston 79-83
Cincinnati 78-84
Pittsburgh 65-97
EAST
Philadelphia 92-70
Florida 84-78
New York 81-81
Atlanta 79-83
Washington 65-97
WEST
Los Angeles 87-75
San Diego 84-78
San Francisco 78-84
Arizona 71-91
Colorado 69-93
AMERICAN LEAGUE
CENTRAL
Detroit 90-72
Cleveland 88-74
Chicago 81-81
Minnesota 80-82
Kansas City 71-91
EAST
New York 90-72
Toronto 81-81
Baltimore 79-83
Boston 75-87
Tampa Bay 71-91
WEST
Los Angeles 93-69
Oakland 84-78
Texas 80-82
Seattle 78-84
I don’t expect these numbers to be completely accurate–there’s no way to account for mid-season roster changes–but I think these predictions will be close on finish within divisions. I’ll be happy if the win totals are within a +/- of 6 (3 up or down).
Preemptive strike: I know there will be a bunch of jeering over the Boston prediction, but my numbers are based largely on pitching, and with Matsusaka there’s just too much uncertainty. If he is what he’s been sold as, their win total goes up quite a bit–but there’s more chance for downside than upside, so I just couldn’t give credit before the fact for him being that good. We’ll see.
By the above scenarios, I see Cleveland getting the AL wild card, and a one game playoff in the NL, probably between Chicago and San Diego (they and Florida will not all finish with the same record, despite the above prediction; and I suspect the Marlins will be the team a game or two behind).
I will hold off on postseason predictions until October.
Welcome back, baseball.
My prediction:
We’re gonna freeze.
We’re going to home opening weekend in Cleveland this weekend, and it’s supposed to snow.
Someone shoot me.