Spring training starts in 4 days (for some teams.) How do you think your team will do this season?
For the Yankees, it will all depend on the young arms. If Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain produce, they have a chance to challenge the Red Sox. If not, Joe Giriardi’s first season will be rocky.
The Tigers will be very good again. At worst, they’ll be the wild card.
Yes, the Tigers are LOADED. I expect them to win their division. I’m not sure how Willis will do against American League hitters, but Cabrera is going to light it up.
I’d be a lot more excited by that if it wasn’t snowing right now. I’d be a LOT more excited if I thought spring training would force Roger Clemens’ injection site preferences and his trainer’s frickin’ beer can full of medical waste off the back pages. Not much chance of that.
The Mets will have better pitching and marginally (or possibly significantly) worse offense. I would guess that Reyes and Wright will hold steady, the old dudes will all be older dudes, the new dudes will be not much above replacement level, and the bench will still be good because Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson are magical. Only a crazy person would guess what a bullpen would do.
Recent Mets STs seem to feature on old guy trying to mount a comeback, like David Cone and Andres Gallaraga. I don’t know who the non-roster invitees are this year.
And hey, Yankiee fans, it’s been like 8 weeks since we’ve heard the phrase “Joba rules.” I’m ready for it all to start again. Are they readying the evil robot midges in Cleveland? Good. And Chris Woodward is a Yankee! I like him.
I crapped myself when I saw that trade. I really liked Andrew Miller and they said they wouldn’t trade Maybin for the world. I didn’t like giving up all those prospects for Renteria either. I think we’d have been great with signing David Eckstein (good top-of-the-order hitter, as well, which is what we need). Willis is a lefty and will keep the hitters guessing in the beginning because of his unorthodox throwing style. If Cabrera can whoop ass, he’ll be one of those guys who will go down in Detroit sports history. He’ll be one of those guys that we’ll love forever and unconditionally.
The Phillies, tragically, have seemed to take a big step backwards after our historic comeback late last season. A lot of Philadelphians are excited that Brett Myers is back in the starting rotation. This strategy, in the minds of most people, seems to be a good replacement for having gone out and gotten a quality starting pitcher; I disagree. Brett Myers has never proven that he has the mental make-up to be able to start effectively, and I think that Brad Lidge as the closer is very suspect.
Aaron Rowand is a big loss; I doubt that he will be able to reproduce last year’s offensive numbers with San Fran, but his defense and intangible locker room qualities will be missed. The Phils’ acquisition for a replacement outfielder was Geoff Jenkins; a guy who hit .255 last year. Same goes with new third basman Pedro Feliz: people are excited that we now have an everyday player at the hot corner who hit 20 homers last year and supposedly has a great glove, but they’re overlooking that he hit .253 last year. Personally, the platoons of Jayson Werth/Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz/Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms do not do a lot for me.
Jimmy Rollins needs to have a season comparable to last year’s in order for the Phillies to have a chance; he cannot fall into the same trap that Ryan Howard did last year, following his MVP season: go on a world tour and completely forget about coming into the season in shape. Speaking of Howard, he cannot suffer the same offensive lull with which he began last yar. Pat Burrell, succeeding the best half-season of his career last year (i.e. not sucking), needs to keep it up. Chase Utley seems to be the smallest question mark on the team, as I believe he will continue to be the best second baseman in baseball.
Our bullpen should be slightly improved, even with Myers gone and Lidge in. JC Romero was great after the Phillies acquired him last year; Tom Gordon will have less pressure on him, and should be a sixth or seventh inning guy; Ryan Madsen pitched well last year before getting hurt; Geoff Geary, thankfully, is gone. If the “change of scenery theory” proves true for Lidge, this aspect of the Phillies will be much improved.
My verdict, though? The Phillies end in a distant second to the Mets.
The Blue Jays cannot possibly hit any worse than they did last year, but the ceiling for the offense is a lot lower than many Jay fans think it is. Even if Scott Rolen comes back from his shoulder surgery, I think a high end estimate would be a slightly above average offense.
The defense is very good; it was arguably the best in the game last year except Boston. There’s no reason to believe that will be any different this year; a slight downgrade at short with Eckstein taking innings from McDonald, but an upgrade at third with Rolen, and likely better defense in left field with Johnson playing a bit more. Catching remains a weakness, but overall the fielding’s awesome.
Pitching? Last year’s team allowed fewer runs than any other in the league except Boston, in part due to the excellent defense but also because a lot of young pitchers really progressed. The top four starters all had good peripherals, none are old, and all are reported healthy, so if injuries don’t hit, they COULD actually win 95 games. The bullpen appears deep.
My concern, however, is the hitting. It could be good enough for the pitching and D to win 95 games, but it could also be bad again. Eckstein is assumed to be a big upgrade at short (he cannot possibly hit worse than McDonald, or even nearly as badly) but he’s old now, Rolen is getting old and is injury prone, Thomas is very old, Zaun is old, Stairs is old, and the only really high ceiling player is Rios. The only players I would EXPECT improvement from are Hill (who has some more potential) and Wells (who just is better than he was in 2007.) But other than that there is potential for offsetting losses.
I suspect the team will pitch and field well again, but hit poorly again. I would set my over/under at 87-75, whcih was their Pythagorean projection last year, which is not coincidence; I expect slight offensive improvement but the pitching to come back to earth just a little (and the team to meet their projection, which they did not in 2007.) They could win as many as 97 if the offense surprises, and could win as few as 77 if the pitching staff has a few arm blowouts (normally I’d say a team could dive by more than that but Toronto has a lot of pitching depth.)
Likelihood of the postseason, 10-15%.
Oakland has traded away their entire team. Rebuilding will be painful.
The Diamondbacks should contend in the NL West. What a race last year was!
What was the deal with Rolen and LaRussa in St. Louis? Who was the “bad” guy? Is Rolen difficult? I always got the impression he was a pretty good guy. Why did LaRussa try to ruin him?
I respect and love the hell out of Roy Halladay and would love to see the day the Jays are completely out of the race, just before the trade deadline, and he gets traded to the Tigers.
The Dodgers have a chance to be World Series winners or total goats this year, as usual. I think Joe Torre will fit in quite well out here on the West Coast. He has some interesting decisions to make, and some young talent to work with. He also has a big problem facing him with the starting rotation. Penny, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda and… Therein lies the rub. I don’t trust Schmidt to be able to get the ball to the plate, much less win 15 games. Loiza sucks, and Wolfe is a goner. We have a couple of good young arms in Kershaw and McDonald, but they don’t have the seasoning yet to really fill that fifth spot. The outfield looks good. Pierre, Jones and Kemp give us good defensive production and speed on the basepaths. If Jones can do anything this year better than last, he’ll be a welcome addition to the lineup. The infield is fairly solid, with Loney and Kent holding down the right side. Furcal seems to be healthy, which could give him one of his best seasons ever. If not, we have Chin-lung Hu to fill in. Not much of a hitter, but a Golden Glove quality shortstop. Third base…there’s where Torre will have his work cut out for him. Do you start Garciaparra, who has the experience and defensive skills, but can’t hit worth a damn anymore, or give the job to LaRoche, who is still on the young side? Personally I’d switch Nomar into a utility position and let him work as needed.
We have to fill that 5th spot in the rotation with talent if we want to go all the way this year. Time, as always, will tell.
Go Big Blue!
It’s an odd feeling for a Yankee fan to hope the Dodgers do well, but I think so highly of Joe Torre that I will be rooting for them this year.
Garciaparra will be great if he can stay healthy. This team needs a leader.
I have high hopes for Schmidt. Even if gets back to 90%, he’ll be a good 5th starter.
I’m hoping that Jones’s last season was a fluke and that Pierre learns how to hit.
God, I forgot how good it was to have a good baseball team.
Warm fuzzies. I haz dem.
Yep, the Tigers chances look damn exciting.
“Pitchers and Catchers”…so that’s what you kids are calling it these days, eh?
I’m afraid Nomar will never be the hitter he was, but his leadership skills are definitely needed. Kent is just too damn abrasive to fill that role well. I’ve given up on Schmidt. Trade the has-been for someone who doesn’t hurt themselves getting out of bed. Jones will be there when we need him…last year was last year. Pierre doesn’t need to hit so much as he needs to be able to draw walks. He’s a jackrabbit, so having him bat first or second in the lineup will put the pressure on opposing pitchers to keep him off the basepaths. The move to Left will also minimize his total lack of an arm.
Really, the fuzzies have been there for a couple years now.
To continue the Yankee part…
The Offense will make up for many mistakes. The Bullpen is still a question mark and the rotation is at least headed by Wang & Pettitte. The two should probably combine for about 32 wins on their own. Moose is still in the mix. I think Chamberlain will end up as the 8th inning guy this year.
A-Rod should have another good year. Jeter played a good part of the season with a leg injury he never talked about. Hopefully he is 100% most of this season. Cano and Melky should still be improving. I doubt Posada can match last year, but he will still put up a plus offensive year for a catcher and this year we have a really solid backup from the start in Molina.
Bobby Abreu is plaing for a contract and Matsui & Damon will be in some odd rotation of various OF positions & DH. Giambi will mostly be a DH with some 1b play. Duncan is already working with Tino Martinez with hopes he will earn the everyday 1b job. Wilson Betemit should provide a solid backup for the entire infield.
The real strength of the Yanks might be the minor leaguers.
Watch for contribution from the AAAA prospects: Brian Bruney, Chris Britton, Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner, Sean Henn(L), Edwar Ramirez & Jose Veras
Ross Ohlendorf has a chance of winning relief job to start the season.
In queue to help out are Humberto Sanchez, Jeffrey Marquez, Steven White, Tyler Clippard & Chase Wright.
Rivera will of course anchor the pen.
LaTroy Hawkins & Kyle Farnsworth will be in the bullpen, I am not excited about either.
Kei Igawa and American Idle Carl Pavano could resurface.
I think Kei might make a good lefty reliever. I would not be upset if Pavano never pitched again.
Jim
Effing brilliant, Jim. Made me snort.