Detroit will go as far as their bullpen takes them. Their offense shouldn’t be a problem. Their defense shouldn’t be a problem. The starters shouldn’t be a problem. The bullpen is the spot of concern for me. The Central isn’t weak, either. The Royals are improved, the White Sox are always dangerous, and the Indians won the division last year and have a pretty solid squad.
The best bullpen in this league wins the World Series.
Back in the Davey Johnson years, a good pre-season almost guaranteed a lousy regular season. IIRC, 1986 was one of the worst pre-seasons the Mets had ever had up to that point. (I could be misremembering tho)
Can you give a rundown of the starters then and explain why you see no problem?
Verlander is a bonafide ace, Bonderman is above average and also a pretty solid strikeout pitcher, Willis is a question mark, but I think he’ll react nicely to pitching in spacious Comerica Park and not having to bat (where rumor is that he was overly focusing on his hitting). Nate Robertson is a solid 4th pitcher and a lefty and he was a little dinged up last year, if memory serves me right. Kenny Rogers is an old goat, but he gets it done. Considering the offense, the starters should benefit from the extra runs. I’m wounded because the Tigers dealt Jair Jurrjens in the deal to get Edgar Renteria because he’s going to be a solid rotational pitcher. We hemorrhaged young pitching talent this offseason. Zack Miner did decently when he was pressed into the rotation (but seemed to lose it a little bit towards the end of the year). Rodney’s hurt right now and so is Zumaya. Todd Jones can’t keep this up for another year, right?
Still, it comes down to the bullpen. Bobby Seay did pretty well…actually much better than I thought he would after losing Jamie Walker. Yorman Bazardo is young and has times in which he’s effective out of the pen, but the jury is still out on him. Cruceta is supposed to be a solid young pitcher, but I haven’t seen much of him.
The offense will erase many mistakes, I am counting on the same for the Yanks.
**Verlander ** is great.
**Bonderman ** is coming off a troubled year and having a poor spring.
**Willis ** is a big question mark, but the offense, park and defense will help him bounce back.
Will **Nate ** be healthy? I thought he was injured or recovering and might not be ready for April?
**Rogers ** appears immortally effective. A very solid 4 or 5. Someday he will break down, but you won’t catch me predicting it anymore.
The National League Champions (damn, it feels good to say that) are nearly unchanged from last year. They lost a starting 2B (Kaz Matsui, who went to Houston, who overpaid him. He also just had surgery to repair an anal fissure, so he’s got that going for him) and a middle reliever (LaTroy Hawkins) and that’s it.
Yes, the team had a freakish run at the end of the season, but make no mistake - this is a very good team, although in the toughest division in baseball.
C - The best name in baseball, Yorvit Torrealba. Solid catcher who worked well with a cast of Spanish speaking rookie pitchers last year.
1B - Todd Helton. Made a comeback of sorts last season after looking like he was going to fade away. Improved in every offensive statistic and had a nearly flawless defensive season. I expect at some point in the season he will drop to the seventh spot in the order and Troy Tulowitski will move to four.
2B - Looks almost certain that rookie Jayson Nix will have the spot on opening day. Good D, average O, but having a big spring. 44th pick in 2001 draft.
3B - Garrett Atkins. .338, 22 HR’s and 91 RBI in the final 105 games last year.
SS - Troy Tulowitski - Runner up Rookie of the year last season. Great player who will be a perrenial all-star. Big strong SS in the mold of Ripken and A-Rod. (Size-wise)
LF - MVP Runner-up Matt Holliday. Signed a two year extension in the off season. His offensive stats have increased in every year in the majors, and he will turn 28 this year. He could have an absolutely monster year. Runaway MVP in 2008.
CF - Speedster Willy Taveras. Covers the huge Coors Field outfield. Leadoff hitter had 54 infield hits in 2007, 37 of them bunts - the most by any player since 1974 (Rod Carew?)
RF - Brad Hawpe - .291, 29 HR, 166 RBI, but can’t hit lefties.
Simply put, the best offensive and defensive lineup in baseball.
SP - Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jiminez, Jason Hirsch (DL), Franklin MoralesRP - Closer is Manny Corpas. Former closer Brian Fuentes will be the highest paid setup man in baseball (expect him to be traded).
The best ERA in the National League after the All-Star break last year? The Colorado Rockies, believe it or not.
The Rockies didn’t make any high profile acquisitions this off-season, but really didn’t need to. The NL West is a beast, but the Rockies will be in it all year and it would not surprise me if they go to the World Series again in 2008.
Brad Hawpe had 116 RBI, not 166 (obviously). But he might if he could hit lefties.
It will erase mistakes, but you know the Yankees won their championships with their bullpen and closer. The Red Sox were so good last year because of their bullpen and closer. The White Sox won a few years ago because of it. Cleveland made waves last year because of it. The Tigers got to the World Series a couple years ago because of their bullpen. The team in the AL that has the best bullpen will be in the playoffs. The team that can score a little, especially in the clutch, and has a superb bullpen will win the World Series.
For the Braves:
Rotation
Smoltz
Hudson
Glavine
Hampton
Jurrjens
Smoltz continues to defy Father Time, but Glavine’s age and Mike Hampton’s injury woes may be the downfall of the '08 Braves. If the '07 Braves had had even slightly below average 4th and 5th starters, they probably win the division. Instead, they ran out an absolutely horrid collection of stiffs that sank any chance of winning. Chuck James, their 3rd starter last year, will likely start in AAA Richmond while recovering from a shoulder injury.
Bullpen
Soriano
Moylan
Ring
Ohman
Boyer
Acosta
Bennett
Some young arms with live stuff here, and Mike Gonzalez comes back in mid-summer from Tommy John surgery. In '06 the bullpen was the weak link, last year it the rotation. I like the Braves rotation if everyone is healthy, with Smoltz/Hudson matching up well with Johan/Pedro. The Phillies would be a distant third in the division for starters, with the Braves a close second to the Mets.
Offense
2B- K. Johnson
SS- Escobar
3B- C. Jones
1B- Texieria
RF- Francoeur
C- McCann
LF- Diaz
CF- Kotsay
Bench
J. Lopez
Prado
Thorman
Anderson
B. Jones (probably in a platoon with Diaz, since Bobby Cox is appearently convinced his .340 and .326 averages the last two seasons are an optical illusion).
Andruw Jones is the biggest departure, but after the worst contract season in FA history last year, Kotsay can’t be much worseat the plate than Andruw. Of course, Andruw’s defense can’t be replaced, leading to announcers to have the phrase ‘That would’ve been an out last year’ burned into their calls. Escobar and Johnson are two young studs at the top of the order, and Chipper just keeps being Chipper, with a career high .337 average last year - which won the non-Coors Field NL title. A full season of Texiera (I know I spelled it differently upthread, I can never remember the way it IS spelled) should balance out the power decline in the A.Jones loss, and McCann and Francoeur continue to make strides at the plate.
I’d say the Phillies offense is better than the Braves, but it’s not THAT much better (since the Braves were 3rd in the NL last year in runs scored - after Philly and the Rockies). With the Mets O creaking and injured, I think the Mets have the 3rd best line-up in the division.
The Braves were unlucky last year, as they scored the 3rd most runs and allowed the 3rd fewest, yet lost 5-6 more games than their Pythagorean Projection called for them to lose. If they had had ‘average’ luck, they would’ve won the division by 2 games. But gamesobviously aren’t played on paper, they’re played by those little guys in your TV set, so it was a second consecutive 3rd place finish.
All 3 contenders in the NL Eastare flawed- both the Braves and Mets have old and/or injured rotations (Pedro/El Duque vs Glavine/Hampton) and the Phillies have to mash to make up for the 3 stiffs that follow Hamels and Myers in their rotation, esp. since they traded Kendrick to Japan for Kobayashi.* I see another three team scrap for the title with Atlanta pulling through in the end.
Atlanta - 91-71
NY Mets - 89-73
Philadelphia 85-77
*One of the all time great pranks. The Phils got the GM, manager and press corps to participate, telling Kendrick he’d been traded to Tokyo for Kobayashi. (He of the hot dog eating fame-although Kendrick didn’t know that.)
I think (hope) this is the most likely ending, but I predict the starting lineup of the Mets, and possibly the Braves, will be different by two players in September as it will be in April, either due to injury, call-up or trade.
The Tribe returns practically the same team that won 96 games last year, and gave Boston all they could handle in the ALCS. Our only real subtraction is Kenny Lofton, who was a 2nd half rental for the playoff run. Our only real addition is Masahide Kobayashi, a back of the bullpen guy from Japan.
I expect to see improvement from DH/ Hafner, 1B/ Garko & CF Sizemore. Hafner had a very down year. Sizemore had a pretty good year, but I think he can still do a lot better.
I worry a bit about 2B/ Asdrubal Cabrera and RF/ Franklin Gutierrez. Both 2nd year guys but their 1st full season. They played great for the Tribe at the end of last season, but there’s always a worry of a drop off now that there’s more expected of them.
The pitching is pretty set. We have a deep rotation with help in the minors if someone underperforms or gets hurt. Westbrook was hurt early in the year last year, and took awhile to get going. Hopefully, he’ll be back to his usual 15 W’s & 200+ innings. Lee was a big disappointment last year. Him and Laffey are fighting it out for the 5th starter spot.
Our bullpen is also deep, but with bullpens you just never know.
I think there’s reason for optimism in the Friendly Confines this season. We need to stay healthy, especially the pitching staff, and see our rookies build on solid performances at the end of last season. Still, the difference between competing for the division title again and actually making some noise in the playoffs will come down to the Japanese import with the best name in baseball, Kosuke Fukudome. If he’s the second coming of Hideki Matsui we’ll be dangerous.
The opening day lineup as of right now.
Bench: RF/LF - Matt Murton ®, 1B/RF - Daryle Ward (L), C - Henry Blanco ®, SS - Ronny Cedeno ®, 2B/SS - Mike Fontenot (L)
Starters
Bullpen
Jon Lieber ®
Scott Eyre (L)
Bob Howry ®
Carlos Marmol ®
Kerry Wood ®
Michael Wuertz ®
Pitcher yet to be decided
All in all, that’s a pretty damn solid lineup if everyone performs as expected and so far this spring everyone has given no reason for doubt. There’s still a pretty real possibility that there’ll be a trade completed between the Cubs and O’s to bring Brian Roberts into town. If it happens he’d almost certainly help this lineup and bat lead-off, but I don’t see it as a necessity.
The most recent offer I’ve heard for Roberts is Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno and mediocre pitching prospect Sean Gallagher. Murton is having a excellent spring and Cenedo has a lot of upside. I wouldn’t mind keeping either guy, but there’s just no room for them so the trade would open up space for other players.
Here’s what a possible lineup would look like with Roberts on the team.
Bench - CF - Sam Fuld (L), 1B/RF - Daryle Ward (L), C - Henry Blanco ®, 2B/SS - Mike Fontenot (L), 2b - Mark DeRosa ®
Starters
Bullpen
Jon Lieber ®
Scott Eyre (L)
Bob Howry ®
Carlos Marmol ®
Kerry Wood ®
Michael Wuertz ®
Pitcher yet to be decided
The Cubs have a long tradition of only employing right-handed hitters so this lineup would be the most balanced lineup in the history of the team. In the NL having a balanced lineup, especially in a division with Tony LaRussa, is such a huge plus. I’d love to see this happen this year.
One frustrating thing is how pissy this team seems to be about where they are hitting in their lineup. I personally find that type of shit baffling and frustrating. If you can hit, you can hit in the 2-hole, the 5-hole or the 6-hole. Yeah, you might see more pitches at the top of the lineup, but I’d think they’d prefer to see opposing teams burn their bullpens playing match-ups. So far Soriano and Fukudome seem to think they belong in the 1 and 2 spots respectively, but that’s not the lineup that will win the most games. Fukudome’s output slumped when he was moved from the 2 to the 5 last week which makes me worry about how streaky his production could be.
Whatever happens, this will be a fast lineup with a strong bench and plenty of positional flexibility. It will also have a nice mix of young and veteran players.
Granderson- .302/23 homers/74 RBI/26 steals
Polanco- .341/9/67/7
Cabrera- .320/34/119/2
Ordonez- .363/28/139/4
Sheffield- .265/25/75/22
Guillen- .296/21/102/13
Renteria- .332/12/57/11
Jones/Thames- .285/5/66/6 or .242/18/54/2 (in limited at bats)
Rodriguez- .281/11/63/2
Yeah, I like that lineup.
Boston has been dreadfully unrepresented in this thread. I will accept full responsibility.
** Disclaimer, I may make a couple of comments on Spring Training performances, which I know really don’t count since they’re only Spring Training. Forgive them. **
Lester and Matsuzaka both led the IP in Spring Training, 12 IP each, Lester with 10 SO and Matsuzaka with 9. Good numbers for me me, especially for Lester. Honestly, before his bout with cancer, I wasn’t impressed. I thought he was just a junk-ball left hander, who only had a spot because the Sox needed a lefty. Maybe it’s the good-story, or maybe it’s the cautious return to action, but I have been impressed with him and his consistency.
Matsuzaka is of course a rock star in Japan. The Red Sox played their second to last Spring Training game last night/this morning against a professional Japanese baseball team last night and emerged successful. I’m trying to dig up more info on the game (attendance, crowd reaction) but it sounded positive. The Japanese people, being the good hosts they are, adopted a lot of Fenway style for their guest (“Sweet Caroline” at the end of the seventh, “Dirty Water” after they won).
Time will tell on Schilling’s health, but Wakefield seems to still be in control of his knuckleball.
As for catching, well, Varitek is still getting older. I won’t get into a pissing match with Yankees fans regarding Posada vs. Varitek; Posada will win in a lot of offensive numbers again this year, but I’d still take our Captain over any other catcher right now. Decent Spring Training, and he still possess those intangibles that swoon my fine city. Also, to back him up it looks like we got a couple kids coming up. No real news on any potential, but they’ve let Mirabelli go, who was Wakefield’s personal catcher for years. I don’t know if they’re going to try to give Wake a new personal catcher of if Tek is going to take over full time. Even with Wakefield getting 217(?) wins last year I think they regretted trading Josh Bard. Maybe they might want to try that experiment with a new kid again. They didn’t stick with Bard, even though sticky with Pedroia and Lugo worked out well for the team after a slow start last year.
Ortiz is back from off-season surgery, and shows no evidence of lingering injury. Nuff’ said.
Manny showed up to Spring Training on time, so what more would you ask for? 
And even though I think Coco Crisp will get the nod in CF for the start of the season. He’s really playing for his job, because this is his last year here, and Jacoby Ellsbury appears like he’s already ready for the job. Coco isn’t a bad CF, per se. It’s just that the Red Sox couldn’t trade him over the break (they were looking for too much IMHO). And while Coco didn’t have a bad Spring Training, Ellsbury led the entire team in Spring Training at-bats, because they really want to give this kid the experience.
Anyways, I look forward to Manny’s 500th HR, and Hopefully Curt will make a positive push towards a HOF nomination.
I may check out some Cubs games this season just to hear the announcers pronounce his name.
Oh, I think they’ll have huge bold-typed, phonetic flash cards. They can’t mess that name up and not draw the ire of the FCC.
It’s a name that just begs to be belted out by Ray Clay in the Stadium.
So how do you pronounce Kosuke Fukudome?
I hear it as “Go Suckee, Fuck You! Do Me!” But I admit I haven’t heard the proper pronunciation.
From the Cubs website: