MLB: July 2011

No! That’s strategery inherent in the National League!

I’ll take LaRussa’s drunken over-management over Dusty Baker’s non-existent management.

Goddamn it Reds. I think we have lost more one run games so far this season than anybody else…a stat that was reversed for them last season, which tells me they weren’t all that good then and aren’t all that good now.

Dontrelle Willis was solid in his debut today, but stupid fucking infuriating multi-millionaire one-inning guy Cordero blew it…again!

Fuck!

:mad:

Interesting trivia about Jeter’s 3000th hit:

  • Jeter got #3000 on a home run. The only other player to do that was Wade Boggs, who did it in the same ballpark.

  • Jeter is the fourth youngest player to get to 3000; the youngest, incidentally, was Ty Cobb.

  • Incredibly, not only is Jeter the only Yankee to do it, he’s the only player for any team based in New York to do it; no Met, Brooklyn Dodger, or San Francisco Giant ever got a 3000th hit in a NY team’s uniform.

  • Of course, some Yankees got a 3000th hit at some other point in their career; Wade Boggs, Dave Winfield, and Rickey Henderson all wore pinstripes and later hit #3000; Paul Waner got #3000 and later wore pinstripes.

  • Jeter of course has all his hits with the same team. The all time leader in that department is Stan Musial, who rolled up 3,630 hits never playing for anyone other than the Cardinals. The only players in the 3000 hit club who played for just one team are Musial, Yastrzemski, Cap Anson if you don’t count pre-1876 ball, Cal Ripken, George Brett, Robin Yount, Tony Gwynn, Craig Biggio, Al Kaline, and Roberto Clemente. It is interesting to note that thoguh you hear a lot about how players aren’t loyal anymore, a lot of those names are players of the free agency era.

  • Jeter is a carer .312 hitter. Surprisingly to me, that’s actually ABOVE average in the 3000 hit club. Of the other 27 members of the club, 15 have averages lower than Jeter; the lowest is Rickey, at .279.

  • Jeter holds the record for the most hits at the old Yankee Stadium.

  • Jeter is only the fourth player who primarily played shotstop to do it. (Wagner, Ripken, and Yount.) Jeter has, by far, the most hits of anyone while actually in the lineup as a shortstop; he has never played any other defensive position and has DHd in just a handful of games, while Wagner, Ripken and Yount all played other positions for substantial numbers of games. The #2 hit leader among people who were actually in the lineup as the shortstop when they got the hits is Luis Aparicio.

  • Jeter is the all time leader in playoff hits, with 184.

Yes, in fact, they lead the majors in one run losses.

What it tells me, though, is quite different; it suggests that they’re actually BETTER than their record suggests. A team’s record in 1-run games is more luck than skill; the hapless Orioles have a better record in 1-run games than any of the four teams above them in their division.

If you look at teams that are wildly lucky in 1-run games in the first half, those are the teams that are likely to be really disappointing in the second half. Teams that are strangely unlucky in the first half in 1-run games are often the ones that surprise you down the stretch. I think the Reds are going to give the NL West a run for its money.

Sorry to span the thread, but I thought it might be interesting to post some numbers going into the All-Star break.

I think these are a day old but oh well.

Leaders Among Position Players in Wins Above Replacement:

AL

  1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays, 6.5
  2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees, 4.8
  3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox, 4.7
  4. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox, 4.6
  5. Ben Zobrist, Rays and Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox, each 4.5

NL

  1. Jose Reyes, Mets, 5.2
  2. Andrew McCutcheon, Pirates, 5.0, and not on the All-Star Team for Christ’s sake
  3. Matt Kemp, Dodgers, 4.5, offset by Frank McCourt’s -1793
  4. Shane Victorino, Phillies, 4.4
  5. Ryan Braun, Brewers and Joey Votto, Reds, 4.1

For pitchers:

AL

  1. Jered Weaver, Angels, 4.7
  2. C.C. Sabathia, Yankees, 4.4
  3. Justin Verlander, Tigers, 4.0
  4. Dan Haren, Angels, 3.9
  5. King Felix Hernandez, Mariners, 3.6

NL

  1. Roy Halladay, Phillies, 5.1, big surprise there
  2. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 3.9
  3. Cole Hamels, Phillies, 3.9
  4. Cliff Lee, Phillies, 3.6
  5. Tim Lincecum, Giants and Dan Hudson, Diamondbacks, 3.3

Rookie Value:

AL

  1. Michael Pineda, Mariners, 2.4
  2. Alexei Ogando, Orioles, 2.1
  3. Mark Trumbo, Angels, 1.6

NL

  1. Danny Espinosa, Nationals, 3.3
  2. Craig Kimbrel, Braves, 2.0
  3. Wilson Ramos, Nationals, 1.9

The Pirates are sitting where no one, including me, ever dreamed they’d be. One game out of first place, tied with the Brewers and Cards in the loss column.

The only team that truly worries me is the Brewers (head to head, anyway). They beat the snot out of the Pirates almost every time they play. The Cards usually beat Pittsburgh, also but the Pirates have been playing better against St. Louis this year I think.

At least they are beating the teams they are supposed to beat this year, like the Cubs and Astros. Keep doing that, and they might just hang around.

They also had some success against the AL this year, which is new for the Pirates. They have the ML’s worst interleague record, and I believe they were around 500 this year.

Good for you, man. It’s good to have baseball be eventful again. I say this as a Tigers fan that, before 2006, had to kiss a whole lot of frogs.

Well…I hope you are right. I would love to see the Reds come out like gangbusters in the second half and mop up the division. I just don’t see it. The NL Central is going to be a struggle for all the teams involved, I think.

Can someone here with a better analytical baseball mind than me (read: any of you) analyze how this new acquisition will impact the Dodgers on the field, if at all?

I was just going to post the same question. I can’t figure out how this move makes any sense. It might be a good move, but I don’t understand it right now.

Rivera is effectively a placeholder.

Presumably Rivera was seen as being a better player than Marcus Thames, which I would agree with, and since he’s more or less free the Dodgers figured they might as well pick him up. While Rivera isn’t hitting well he’s tolerable, and he is a shockingly good first baseman so he’s a bit more versatile than Thames.

The Blue Jays are paying his salary so the Dodgers might as well give him a shot.

The Mets have traded Frankie Rodriguez, a good closer having a good year, to the Milwaukee Brewers for two players to be named later.

That’ll keep the fans coming into the ballpark, Sandy.

You want them to pay him 17.5 million next year?

  1. It’s not my money. So yes, obviously, I do. If Wilpon can’t afford to play professional baseball players to play professional baseball, there is a simple solution of which he can avail himself. The Mets are in contention for the wild card right now. If they’re not going to make a good-faith effort to win it, AND aren’t going to make meaningful strides toward improving the team for the future (and this deal most certainly doesn’t help improve them in the future), why should I (or anyone) invest hundreds of dollars to go see a game in person? Or bother to watch on TV, even?

  2. The Mets just traded a high-level player for - literally - nothing. If that was the best deal available to them on 12 July, then why make a deal on 12 July? Two weeks from now Brian Wilson could be hurt again, or Neftali Feliz, or Jose Valverde. A contender in genuine need of a closer might, at least hypothetically, up the ante from nothing. Or do you think this fantastic deal that Sandy Alderson somehow managed to shrewdly pull over on the Brewers wouldn’t have still be available at the end of the month? Or in August?

Not really, no.

Look, PTBNLs needn’t be “nothing.” Prospects have value (do I really need to say this?) for any team, but especially for those who (their fans presumably hope) plan to contend more seriously in years to come than they can now. It could be that the teams have agreed that the players will come from a given list of minor leaguers and that the specific choice is being delayed for the Mets’ benefit, to give them a further look before they confirm.

What do you mean “If?” Did you see the terms of Einhorn’s $200 million minority investment in the team?

The timing of the Rodriguez deal is confusing. There were rumors the Yankees were interested in him, although I don’t think that was going to happen. They couldn’t have gotten more for him by waiting or letting another team get involved?

Isn’t that what got them into this mess in the first place? Spending money for the sake of spending money. The Mets problem has never been their payroll; even now there payroll is still 7th. It probably could be higher, but when you build terrible team after terrible team, you don’t generate all that much revenue to spend even in N.Y.. Just because you can afford to pay a player, doesn’t mean you should. Not even the Yankees can spend money this badly and still win.

As for being a WC contender, the Mets are 5th in the WC race, 7.5 games behind a braves team, which is almost certainly better than them. Contender is a bit of a stretch. I’d rather a gm be realistic to his team’s chances and regroup when necessary then go for miracles.

Of course this deal helps them in the future. It gives them millions of dollars more to spend. Did you think the Vernon Wells trade didn’t help the future of the Blue Jays? They can use the money to help retain Reyes, get a much needed starter, or sign some 16 year old Dominican kids. Now it is possible they will not use this money wisely, but that doesn’t make this deal bad.

No they traded Krod and his contract, which was a negative asset. There simply no credible way for the mets to keep Krod and not have his contract vest, and 17.5 million for a 60 innings is a horrible use of resources, especially for a closer who while still good no longer elite.

I don’t know if this deal was available in two weeks. Each game Krod finishes makes him more dangerous to the team that acquires him. They are already limited to only contenders not on his no trade list who have a credible closer and can use him as a setup guy. Perhaps if Krod is at 40 games finished instead of 34 the Brewers won’t take that risk.

It wasn’t a shrewd move, just some necessary cleanup of another Minaya mess.

The Orioles, who are in their 14th year under the Curse of Davey Johnson (haven’t finished .500 or better since they fired him after the 1997 season), have lately been experiencing an interesting new manifestation of the Curse.

Since it was announced that Davey would be taking over the helm of their closest MLB neighbors, the Nats, the O’s have gone from 34-39 to 36-52, a 2-13 streak that’s all but killed any realistic hopes of their breaking the Curse this year.

Eat it, Peter Angelos. :smiley:

They got out of a bad contract in time and got a couple of prospects for it. If any of the prospects pan out, it’s fine. Mr. Rodriguez hits to a lot of ground balls, and there’s a REALLY bad defense behind him in Milwaukee now. This could be a horrible move by Milwaukee when it’s all said and done.

This may be so. If the Mets get even a mid-level prospect back - even say somebody who projects as a middle-to-back of the rotation starter or strong fourth outfielder in the major leagues - I’ll retract my opposition to this deal. However, in the overwhelming majority of cases, PTBNLs do amount to nothing.

Hawk -

I think you may have Stockholm Syndrome. What has this franchise ever done to earn the benefit of the doubt you’re giving them here?

The Mets are not in this mess because they spend money on good players. You can’t lump the K-Rod deal in with Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez (and Jason Bay!) and say they’re all of a piece. No, throwing money around at every mediocrity that comes along is not the way to succeed. But K-Rod has performed more or less as he was expected to when he was signed. He’s a player with actual value. It may not be value perfectly commensurate with his compensation, but to dismiss the value entirely - to group him with the worthless Perezes and Castillos - makes no sense.

I disagree. 7.5 games at the All-Star break isn’t quite nothing, but it’s hardly insurmountable and it most certainly wouldn’t require a “miracle,” particularly when you’ve gotten there without two of your five best hitters - including, don’t forget, probably your best hitter. Though again, if the team were going to genuinely “regroup,” I wouldn’t necessarily quibble. Deal Reyes for a few serious prospects? I’m on board. Send Beltran to the Giants for Madison Bumgarner? OK. But this isn’t “regrouping;” it’s tanking.

By this standard, the Yankees could deal A-Rod for a PTBNL and you could call it a good deal. The point is, the Mets had a legitimate asset - with real-world value - and they swapped it for no asset. Their team is worse now, and there is no player or pick received in return that will make it better in the future. I might feel differently if the Mets had any kind of good history with free agents, but let’s face it - the most successful free agent contract this franchise has managed in the last feels-like-twenty-but-probably-is-only-five years might be the guy they just traded away.

But the biggest problem is this:

I don’t buy this. First of all, the number of finishes K-Rod gets is entirely under the control of the team. There is no “risk.” If he’s at 40 games finished at the end of July, he’s still going to become a setup guy in Milwaukee - the odds of him finishing even ten more games the rest of the way are low.

And further, it’s not like the option is for $22M. If you honestly expect me to believe that no team will take a $3M risk to gain an actual asset that could help them win a World Series - or rather, that someone will take that risk now but not in two weeks - then you’re asking me to put more faith in this franchise then they have earned.

This was a salary dump. There is no upside. There is no positive. The prospects for the rest of the season just got dimmer, and there is nothing to suggest that next year or 2013 will be better in recompense.

I flatly do not believe that there was not a better deal out there. I believe rather that the Mets took the first deal they could find, because their owner has placed himself in a massively untenable financial situation but will not sell the team, so he could not take even an infinitesmal risk that he wouldn’t find a buyer. I find that loathsome and obnoxious, and I struggle to justify supporting it by buying tickets.