The Cubs seem to be in “either score 2 runs, or 12” mode. When they lose, it’s kinda close. When they win, it’s almost a blowout.
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Man, Hill looks like he’s toying with the Nats through 3 innings. If I was Dave Roberts, I’d be thinking about making Barnes the ‘personal catcher’ for Hill.
It was lucky, in Friday’s game, that they managed a 7-run inning to beat the Cards, because otherwise John Lackey might have had an aneurysm. The Cards went up 2-1 after the Cubs were screwed by some truly diabolical ball-and-strike calling from home-plate umpire Carlos Torres.
This was called a ball on a 2-2 count (look at the strike zone monitor), and resulted in extending the at-bat. On the next pitch, Carlos Martinez drove in the go-ahead run. You can see an animated GIF of the pitch here. Lackey lost his shit, and was ejected, along with catcher Contreras.
I don’t know what the fuck the umpire though he was seeing. It wasn’t even close. The ball was in the strike zone by a mile. It’s stuff like this that will, in the end, get us automated ball-and-strike calling.
Contreras got a 2 game suspension which is bullshit. Cubs won today, though, so barring an epic meltdown, the Cubs have locked up the NL Central and may as well let Contreras rest.
I was at today’s game (as well as last night’s), and yeah, Hill looked solidly in control. I was surprised they pulled him when they did (and disappointed that despite pinch hitting, they couldn’t move the runners over at all).
Nevertheless, really happy to see the Dodgers playing so much better right now. My conversations with Nats fans yesterday and today have consisted of a lot of “We needed this win more than you did.” Nats fans are expressing hope that they meet the Dodgers in the NLCS. Of course, Nats fan are hoping to get past the first round of the playoffs, no matter who’s waiting for them at that point.
Meanwhile, the Indians have officially clinched back-to-back AL Championships.
For the record, I would love to see that logo go away, and I wouldn’t mind a team name change, either. I’m hoping it DOES become a huge focus during these playoffs and puts enough pressure on them to get rid of the Wahoo for good. but I’m not holding my breath.
They have?
Did the ALCS happen while i wasn’t looking?
Heh. It’s a forward-looking statement. Let’s try that again: The Indians have clinched the AL Central title for the second year in a row.
Time for bed, apparently.
Huh? The Cubs are 4 up on the Brewers and 5 up on the Cards.
Their schedule from here out? 1 more against the Cards tomorrow. Let’s say they lose that (still won the series 2-1). They have 2 against the 'Rays on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the stretch run. They split with the Rays. Then the Brewers host them for a 4 game set. Split it 2-2. Then at St. Louis for another 4 game set. Give it to the Cards at home 3-1. Finish with 3 at home against the Reds with a 1-2 loss. Stretch run is 5-9 which hardly counts as an epic meltdown (damn bad, but not epic).
Now the Cards, Cubs tomorrow which they win. Then 3 each with the Reds and Pirates. Win each 2-1. 4 with the Cubs (3-1 as above). Finish with 3 with the Brewers and win 2-1. Final record 10-4.
Final standings:
Cubs 87-75
Cards 87-75
But the Brewers are only 4 back, so flip those numbers to the Brewers (for the Cubs and Cards series) and the Cubs probably sit out October.
Things look ok for the Cubbies right now, but it’s hardly a lock at this point. Everything is divisional from here out (except for the oddball 2 against the Rays) and things could get interesting fast.
Sounds like you haven’t been a Cubs fan for a very long time, or are just insanely optimistic. I seem to remember you saying that the Cubs were looking forward to an easy schedule at the end of August, early September, and they should pull away. They haven’t pulled away yet.
They’re in the driver’s seat, but, remember, they just got swept by the Brewers, and still have all those games with both the Brewers and Cards left. One bad series at St. Louis and the Cubs and Cards are tied for first. Nothing at all is a lock.
And the Contreras suspension is no surprise and, IMHO, warranted.
Astros clinch with Justin Verlander making his first home start for them.
I did probably celebrate prematurely. Looking at the NL central schedule, the Brewers and the Cardinals get to play the Reds and the Pirates who have basically shut down for the year. The Cubs need two strongly suggested wins against the Rays who are all but done for the year as well.
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There’s an oddity on the schedule I’m wondering about.
The Astros are finishing the regular season with a series against the Red Sox. If the standings were to remain as they are today, the Astros would then begin the playoffs in a series against (wait for it) the Red Sox. Has it ever happened before that teams have back-to-back series against each other to end the season and start the playoffs? And if so, how much manipulation has there been by managers in those circumstances to try to prevent the opposing team from gathering too much intel ahead of the games that really really matter?
In 1991, the Twins and Blue Jays played the last series of the season against each other, then promptly played each other in the ALCS.
Here’s a statistical oddity for you: the Astros have the best offense in baseball - they cooled off somewhat in August so I’m not sure if it’s still on a pace to be historically great - but they almost certainly won’t have a single player with 100 RBIs. Their current leader is Marwin Gonzalez with 82, with 13 games left in the season.
Given how much video footage all the teams have of one another, and how much time they spend studying the strengths and weaknesses of opposing players, i don’t think the final 3-game series of the season is going to make much difference. The main strategizing, in each case, is more likely to focus on making sure that each team has its best hitters and its starting pitchers ready to go for the Division Series.
Plus, during the last 3 game series of the year, each team is still playing with their expanded roster, so the playoff team is going to be quite different. Plus in baseball, it’s not like you’re adding things to a playbook like in football.
Yep. In October, you almost don’t even use your bench. Or your fifth starter, maybe the fourth too, or your early-inning relievers, unless the game is already hopelessly lost.
The Astros have scored 14.3% more runs than the AL average, which isn’t historical greatness. Even giving them a bit of credit for playing in a pitcher’s park they don’t quite reach historical heights.
Recently I wrote a blog about great offenses, and ran some numbers. Here are all the teams since 1969 that have scored 20% more runs than the league average (including themselves in the league average) unless they were the Rockies, who did it a few times but only because of Colorado:
Year Team RS ARS % Above
2015 Blue Jays 891 710 25.49%
2013 Cardinals 783 629 24.48%
2013 Red Sox 853 702 21.51%
2011 Red Sox 875 723 21.02%
2007 Yankees 968 794 21.91%
2003 Braves 907 747 21.42%
2003 Red Sox 961 788 21.95%
2000 Indians 1009 838 20.41%
1993 Phillies 877 728 20.47%
1982 Brewers 891 726 22.73%
1976 Reds 857 645 32.87%
1975 Reds 840 668 25.75%
1971 Pirates 788 633 24.49%
1969 Reds 798 658 21.28%
It’s a rare achievement. The league’s best offense will usually be in the mid-teens by this measure. I am not accounting for park effects here, except for my disqualification of the Rockies, but obviously if I were the list would be a bit different. Still, it’s interesting.
What I find interesting about the Astros is their team OPS+ is 126, which is amazing. It’s higher than ANY team on the list above (the 1982 Brewers were 121.) As they are not underproducing their runs created, I find that weird, but oh well.
ETA: I am not good with tables. Sorry.
ETA2: The 2016 Red Sox also nosed above 20 percent, but I forgot to include them for some reason. Obvious there’s some park effect there, but there is no doubt the Red Sox has consistently fielding outstanding lineups for a really long time.
Here you go. Tables work best in code formatting, using tab stops between columns:
Year Team RS ARS % Above
2015 Blue Jays 891 710 25.49%
2013 Cardinals 783 629 24.48%
2013 Red Sox 853 702 21.51%
2011 Red Sox 875 723 21.02%
2007 Yankees 968 794 21.91%
2003 Braves 907 747 21.42%
2003 Red Sox 961 788 21.95%
2000 Indians 1009 838 20.41%
1993 Phillies 877 728 20.47%
1982 Brewers 891 726 22.73%
1976 Reds 857 645 32.87%
1975 Reds 840 668 25.75%
1971 Pirates 788 633 24.49%
1969 Reds 798 658 21.28%