There are plenty of little league fields in the D.C. metropolitan area at which the Nats should feel right at home.
Ohtani is getting some (deserved) consideration.
But he shouldn’t, compared to Judge. His team is not even competing and even by WAR he is having a lesser year.
I agree with you.
Sandy Alcantara pitched a complete game against the Nationals and gave up only one run. Man’s a machine. (Granted, it’s against us.)
In my opinion, there is absolutely no reason to involve a player’s team in the discussion for an individual award. I don’t care a single whit about the nonsensical arguments that go something like “but it’s ‘Most VALUABLE Player’ not ‘BEST Player’”. These arguments try to make up for some deficiency of some sort.
With that said, it’s hard to argue against Judge this year. I’m strongly influenced by WAR as a stat for these discussions, since it factors in nearly every aspect of the game. Judge is ahead of Ohtani by a full game - which is pretty significant. I’ve argued many times (mostly on this board) that Ohtani’s ability to essentially add another roster spot to his team is invaluable (though inevitably wasted by the hapless Angels front office) - but MLB.com had a very interesting article this week that tried to actually quantify that flexibility. It boils down to the fact that the “R” in “WAR” stands for “replacement”, and that’s exactly what the 27th roster slot ends up being (at least in the Angels’ case - and pity for Ohtani and Trout).
It’s a shame voters can’t just check off a “fuck it - give it to both of them” box. They each are having unreal seasons in their own regard, and it would be way better for baseball and baseball fandom if everyone just said “man, I cannot believe I am so lucky to be a baseball fan in 2022 when I can watch both of these players play baseball.”
But you are applying your own criteria to an award that traditionally was given to a great player on a team that actually contended.
There’s also a strong argument that a great player in any team sport is able to elevate those around them, and therefore tend to be on the best-performing teams.
I don’t know that it’s always true, but I’m sure it’s true much of the time, and it’s worth considering.
Ohtani is the defending AL MVP - historically the voters came up with a lot of reasons to give the award, and many times those reasons were dumb. When they decided that RBIs were the most critical stat, that was dumb. When they decided it could only be given to players on contenders, that was dumb. Voters have been far more logical lately in giving it to the best player in the league.
Judge’s best stretch has been in the 2nd half - the Yankees have been, by all metrics, a pretty terrible team in the 2nd half. The Angels have been pretty terrible all season. I don’t see a distinction here to base a decision on.
Judge will win the MVP Award. I will bet money on it with anyone who wants the action.
They have always been willing to give the MVP Award to great performers on mediocre teams. Ernie Banks won two in a row on Cubs teams that were under .500.
I think the performance of a team has to be looked at just because if a guy’s team sucks a lot of ass, you should at least ask yourself if he’s really as great as you think he is. (Andre Dawson in 1987, everyone!) And if two guys are inseperately close, team success could be a bit of a tiebreaker.
Going by straight up WAR is not wise, IMHO; that number, no matter your source, does have some methodological problems. However, in the case of Judge and Ohtani, I think it’s fairly close to the truth right now.
I find its estimate of Ohtani’s batting value oddly low - Baseball Reference believes Ohtani is no better an offensive player than Vlad Jr., which makes no sense to me. Vladdy has a lower on base percentage, a lower slugging percentage, grounds into a hideous number of double plays, and is no better a baserunner. There isn’t a significant difference in park effects. So WAR might be undervaluing him
However, Judge is still on top, IMHO. Much of the argument for Ohtani is that his contributions are so unique, and relies on a sort of binary argument:
Judge is a great hitter
Ohtani is a great hitter
Ohtani is also a great pitcher
The problem is that while Ohtani has been a terrific hitter in 2022, Judge is BEYOND terrific. Judge is having one of the greatest offensive seasons in the entire history of the major leagues. Judge’s hitting is worth two Shohei Ohtanis. His OPS+ is the 21st highest since 1901, not counting short season leagues; almost everyone above him is Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, or Ted Williams.
I believe both WAR calculations penalize Ohtani pretty significantly for being a DH, which is probably the discrepancy.
DH’ing is a bit of a cheat. Is Ohtani really a two-way player? It would be cool if he played the outfield regularly.
Perhaps, but the DH boat sailed long ago.
He did play in the outfield a bit during 2021, though only in something like 7 games; I’m going to guess that those were primarily, if not exclusively, games at NL ballparks, where there was no DH allowed last year (and in which he wasn’t pitching).
OTOH, if I, as the Angels’ manager, have this guy who is not only one of my two best batters, but is also my best pitcher, do I really want him playing in the outfield, and risking an arm injury on a throw, if I have an option (DH) where I have his bat in my lineup, but don’t have to have him in the field?
Well, I think the front office made that call, not the manager. Ohtani is a very good defensive outfielder.
I guess one also has to consider the fact playing the outfield would add to his overall fatigue, and might make him less effective as a pitcher. Clearly what they’re doing, with regards to Ohtani, is working, as he excels in both roles.
This offseason, if I’m the Blue Jays, I’m offering the Angels all my top prospects for Ohtani. All of them. Take Moreno, Martinez, Tielemann, ten more, the works. I’ll throw in some major leaguers, though I don’t think that’d who they would want. For just one or two years of Ohtani I’m absolutely giving them the farm.
Are there any baseball-simulation video games that allow you to field multiple clones of the same player? What other current player, if cloned into an entire team, would have a chance against a team of all Shohei Ohtanis?
Sure, you could do this in OOTP.
Who could beat him? No one. There are better hitters, but none of them can pitch. There are a few better pitchers, but none of them can hit. A full team of Aaron Judges or Vladimir Guerreros could score a lot of runs but would give up fifty a game. A full team of Max Scherzers would limit the offensive damage but would be shut out 155 times a year.
Aren’t you the same guy who wanted to unload all your prospects for Juan Soto? 
Still would.