More Americans now call themselves Republicans than Democrats

[elucidator]

Not that wacky. The Republicans have gone to extra lengths to portray their political opponents as weak and vacillating in a time of war, and to wrap themselves in patriotic bunting. Did you see the Presidents new “uniform”? Granted, as a veteran of the Battle of Amarillo, he has more right to it than, say, Bill Clinton, but just barely.

People are very sensitive to issues of patriotism, it cuts to the quick. It is emotional, visceral, and not much amenable to reason. All of which the Pubbies have not shrinked from exploiting, with varying degrees of shamelessness.

[ITR_champion]

Let me offer a simple explanation for the shift in party identification. After the failure of the Contract with America (remember that one?) and the resignation of Newt Gingrich (remember him?), the Republicans set out to rebuild their image in a very simple way. On issues where the majority of the public sided with them, they held their ground. On issues where the majority of the public sided against them, they switched to believing and supporting whatever the Democrats said, or sometimes going even farther. The only exception to this strategy was on environmental issues, where they needed to hold to unpopular positions in order to get money from corporate donors.

So in 1996 the Republicans got stung on the issue of Medicare. What did they do in response? Switch positions, of course. Elderly, middlingly conservative voters who went with Clinton in '96 because they feared that the 'Pubs might cut their Medicare benefits could safely vote for Shrub in '04 since he made it clear that his party would always be more generous than the Democrats. Medicare is now totally safe from Republican attempts to chip away at it. (Of course it reamins to be seen whether Medicare is safe from Republican attempts to expand it, but that’s another story.)

Likewise on the social front. The 'Pubs figured out that abortion was a loser issue, so they moved that off of center stage and instead started beating the gay marraige drums, convinced they’d found a winner issue. The growth of the Republican registration numbers has not come “despite the Republicans shifting rightward”. It has come because the Republicans shifted leftward.

[you_with_the_face]

@rjung

And as you’ve demonstrated, with the right-wing insta-pundits spending the last decade or so demonizing everything to do with the word “liberal,” a lot of left-leaning folks may register themselves as “independents” just to avoid harassment by smug, self-righteous Republicans.

I personally couldn’t care less what Republicans think of what I call myself. Labeling myself independent just makes more sense to me than branding myself with a party name. I wouldn’t be surprised if most Gen Xers had the same idea. We are a very cynical demographic.

[annaplurabelle]

@ITR champion

The growth of the Republican registration numbers has not come “despite the Republicans shifting rightward”. It has come because the Republicans shifted leftward.

What?!! (this is interesting to me, although maybe a hijack)…

I used to think I was a centrist (although admittedly somewhat apolitical). IMO, in the last 10 years, the center has moved right. I woke up one day (just this year, in fact) and found myself a leftist.
(all this to say: pardon my appearance whilst I undergo renovations)

Are you saying that the GOP taking up the “anti-gay” issue" is a shift to the left???

IMO, it’s not really a left v. right shift, but a move towards fascism (or proto-fascism for the squeamish). More like a shift that would register on the perpendicular political axis.

[Wrath]

a lot of left-leaning folks may register themselves as “independents” just to avoid harassment by smug, self-righteous Republicans.

I highly doubt that. In fact, if the rise in Rep affiliations is seen as a backlash, then folks are MORE likely to polarize in the face of smug self righteousness (Moore, Al Franken…) rather than hide from it. I suppose the opinion that liberals are weak willed has come into play in your postulate. Does it then presuppose that Reps are tougher than Dem’s?

[rjung]

@John Mace

That’s one of the whackiest theories I’ve heard yet.

Thanks for demonstrating my point.

[elucidator]

Of course, your premise presupposes that Al Franken and Mike Moore engender the smug/self-righteous response in the population at large. Most likely they engender that response in you, and in those with whom you largely agree. (I feel safe in assuming your political stance is somewhat to the right of mine own). For myself, “smug and self-righteous” brings more instantly to mind such modest and unassuming souls as Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly, though BR most brings to mind the words “belligerant prick”.

So, yes, if someone already leans to the right, exposure to Mssrs. Franken and Moore might further polarize them, assuming they were open minded enough to listen in the first instance. Rather a leap of faith, I’m afraid.

[John_Mace]

@rjung

Thanks for demonstrating my point.

Glad to be of service.

elucidator:

I guess I just don’t see what’s so earth shakingly hard to believe about these numbers, especially right after an election where Republicans won gains pretty much across the board. We’re only talking about a few percentage points either way, and there are still (as I said earlier) about 1/3 of respondents who don’t associate themselves with either party. It just seems a whole lot more reasonable to say that there are currently, and I emphasize “currently”, more Pubs than Dems rather than to postulate some irrational fear of answering an anonymous poll question about party affiliation.

I actually do think the pendulum theory has a lot going for it. People vote the Dems in, get dissatisfied, and then turn to the Pubs. After a time, they get dissatisfied with the Pubs and swing back more towards the Dems. It has happened time and time again, especially when we’re talking about the President.

[ITR_champion]

@annaplurabelle

What?!! (this is interesting to me, although maybe a hijack)…

I used to think I was a centrist (although admittedly somewhat apolitical). IMO, in the last 10 years, the center has moved right. I woke up one day (just this year, in fact) and found myself a leftist.
(all this to say: pardon my appearance whilst I undergo renovations)

Are you saying that the GOP taking up the “anti-gay” issue" is a shift to the left???

The GOP has not taken up an anti-gay stance any time recently. They’ve kept the same anti-gay stance that they always had. But just remember that it was mere six years ago that Trent Lott explained that homosexuals are the same as kleptomaniacs. A little bit more than one year ago the issue of whether gay sex should even be legal was before the supreme court. Now none of the leading Republicans would say such a thing. So even there the Republican Party has shifted to the left in recent years.

[Wrath]

Of course, your premise presupposes that Al Franken and Mike Moore engender the smug/self-righteous response in the population at large

No, they are they are the smug and self-righteous of the left, not in the population at large, and IF the rise Reps is due to a backlash, the Dems have Franken and Moore (and their ilk) to thank.

Since there was no rise in the Dems, the fact that Limbaugh and O’Rielly are smug and self-righteous and lean right did not have the same effect. So they’re either not as smug and self righteous, or they’re views are more in line with those who registered Rep.

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

Backlash? Backlash from what? There hasn’t been any new movement to the right it’s been right for 20 years. What the polls shoes is that conservatives are more likely to allign themselves with a poltical party than liberals or moderates. They are more likely to congregate and seek strength in numbers. Liberals like to think for themselves. They don’t need to turn on the radio to find out what their opinions are.

[guestforever]

@Wrath

And what would that be? Both campaigns were a JOKE. John Kerry topped the internet search engines’ lists leading up to the election and folks concluded they didn’t want him.

the machine and the campaign are not synonymous

[Mr.Moto]

@Diogenes the Cynic

Liberals like to think for themselves. They don’t need to turn on the radio to find out what their opinions are.

Interesting theory, and one that would account for the dismal ratings of Air America.

Do they still “own” Plattsburgh?

[Diogenes_the_Cynic]

@Mr. Moto

Interesting theory, and one that would account for the dismal ratings of Air America.

Do they still “own” Plattsburgh?

I believe that it soes account for the low ratings of Air America. I listened for like two days and got bored. I want to hear a dialogue, a debate, a fight. I don’t wnat to just hear my own opinion and over and over again. I don’t know how conservatives can stand it.

[BabaBooey]

@rjung

And as you’ve demonstrated, with the right-wing insta-pundits spending the last decade or so demonizing everything to do with the word “liberal,” a lot of left-leaning folks may register themselves as “independents” just to avoid harassment by smug, self-righteous Republicans.

Why not just lie about it if they’re so worried? Between all of the harassing and self righteousness, few of us pubbies have time to investigate individual party registrations. :rolleyes:

[annaplurabelle]

@ITR champion

The GOP has not taken up an anti-gay stance any time recently. They’ve kept the same anti-gay stance that they always had. But just remember that it was mere six years ago that Trent Lott explained that homosexuals are the same as kleptomaniacs. A little bit more than one year ago the issue of whether gay sex should even be legal was before the supreme court. Now none of the leading Republicans would say such a thing. So even there the Republican Party has shifted to the left in recent years.

I googled your Trent Lott reference, and now I think I see what you mean.

Apparently, I’d been living in some kind of dream world. You see, both my parents were/are bisexual (Dad is gone now). Previously, I thought this was only an adolescent nuisance; embarassing parents seemed par for the course when I compared myself to my peers. Little did I know…

But I still don’t understand how this qualifies as a shift on the left v. right axis (according to you). Is it all about when the “unspeakable” becomes the “easily politically condemnable”? IMO,that’s not a left-right shift…

@wrath

No, they are they are the smug and self-righteous of the left, not in the population at large, and IF the rise Reps is due to a backlash, the Dems have Franken and Moore (and their ilk) to thank.

Since there was no rise in the Dems, the fact that Limbaugh and O’Rielly are smug and self-righteous and lean right did not have the same effect. So they’re either not as smug and self righteous, or they’re views are more in line with those who registered Rep.

Well, I do believe their views are more in line with the “mainstream”, but that is only a reflection of how defensive and uninformed the US populace is.

BTW, I also believe neither one of these men are personally happy about being taken at face value (as they obviously are). Did you ever say something in irony and have someone take it completely seriously? This is the hell they are consigned to.

Unfortunately, many (innocent) others are currently consigned to the same hell along with them.

@Mr. Moto

Interesting theory, and one that would account for the dismal ratings of Air America.

What “dismal” ratings? Do you have a cite for that?

Here’s what I found, on a quick google:

In New York, Sinton said, Franken’s show “trounces” Bill O’Reilly in Arbitron ratings among its target audience of 25-to-54-year-olds, and trails Limbaugh by less than a percentage point. In San Diego and Portland, he said, the network ranks third in the target demographic.

“The signs are positive,” said Tom Taylor, the editor of Inside Radio, a trade publication. “They clearly have a younger and more diverse audience than we usually see with talk radio.”

[Blalron]

@Mr. Moto

This should be an indication to those Democrats that there are issues the American public regards as settled, but that they still want to fight over. Unless they cede some of these battles, they’ll keep losing ground.

Lost causes are the only ones worth fighting for.

[elucidator]

How do you number the persons at either extreme? For myself, I’m on the conservative wing of the extreme left. I vote almost entirely Democrat, but that’s not because I’m a Democrat, I’m not, its a rear-guard, defensive action against the Forces that are trying to create a fantasy world out of my country: half Ozzie and Harriet, half The Green Berets, all nightmare.

So if a pollster were to ask me what party I identify with, I might not say “independent”, but there’s almost no chance I’d say “Democrat”. Can’t hazard a guess how many people there are like that, not “centrist” but definitely “independent”.

The left, I think, is more amorphous, far more factions and subsets. The Republicans seem to come in two basic varietys: the business faction (Mammonites) and the Bible-thumpers. (I don’t include the pro-lifers because I don’t think they really connect otherwise: if the parties switched, so would they). A most uneasy alliance, but the Mammonites will put up with the Thumpers, so long as it doesn’t interfere with Business. If the Thumpers ask for something too upsetting, the Mammonites say it can’t be done, the liberals still thwart God’s Will, but just a couple more elections…

But Dems are shredded, not all environmentalists are pro-choice, not all feminists are egalitarian, and no more vegetarians are homosexual than one might expect, and those most committed are least likely to identify directly as “Democrats” for the same reason I don’t: “liberal” tends to mean a lack of committment. Radicals disdain liberals far more than conservatives do.

The only real question is how many people, stumbling through the wreckage of four more years, are going to shake their heads and mutter “Jesus H.!” It may very well mean a huge Dem landslide.

And the price will be far, far too high.

[Reeder]

Let me see…

37% republican

32% democrat

Those numbers don’t mean squat.

The important number is…

31%.

The number that doesn’t call themselves either.

That should be scary to both parties.

IMHO both mainstream parties days are numbered.

[John_Mace]

Reeder: It’s always been like that. Neither party is going away.