Most Americans oppose offshoring. We need to take action.

I should note that there may be rational economic arguments for some amount of protectionism. But you have to make actual arguments. You can’t merely rely on a mixture of argumentum ad populum, contentless insults, and some vague sense that only production of material things really counts.

You seem to feel free to disregard mainstream economic theory because (you argue, I think misleadingly) 86% of Americans disagree with it. When others bring up plausible reasons to disagree, all you do is handwave (Americans are eight times more productive, full stop!), stomp your foot, flip the bird, and point to the 86% figure again.

Reminds me of a Dilbert cartoon where Alice was asked to benchmark their company against other companies that make different things.

Because it’s not a fallacy to point out that

  1. You have failed to make a coherent point in favor of offshoring;
  2. There is this thing called democracy (of the representative sort, for you pedantic anal retentives out there) which you keep discounting, but in reality is every much as real as your supposed “logic”. And just as effective.
  3. You sit in your enclave thinking that you’re winning arguments but history is showing you clearly that society despises you.

Oh and things are even worse for your side than you thought.

Even in England 80% of citizens want to see offshornig stopped. It also doesn’t seem to be looking good for the pro-offshoring crowd in Australia.

I’m betting that Canada isn’t all that far behind here.

Which means that Black Knight’s and RickJay’s master plan to import Chinese goods through Canada to the United States would likely FAIL because once American and British citizens WAKE UP and vote in tariffs to stop offshoring… Canada may also follow suit.

After that, we might even say FUCK YOU to the WTO. Ok, that’s taking it a bit far. :smiley:

You also cannot assume that the cost of goods will increase 5 fold or higher. They didn’t go down that far when we moved production overseas.

And who says that? 16 million people out there are doing nothing at all… how productive is that?

Oh, I forgot… those people don’t matter to the folks on SDMB. You guys are so disconnected from reality you believe that higher unemployment is good for businesses. Hell if we had 25% unemployment you’d be awash in awesome job applicants!

WOAH!!! We can’t have that, now can we! An employee’s market?! Oh my (capitalistic, mind you - no evil Christians allowed here) gods, what would America do if wages went up! Oh noes! We’d be doomed! This deflationary spiral we’re suffering now would be so much better than inflation!

Wait… didn’t emacknight and Tranzor z and the rest of your crew argue against me on this and say that American wages would not go up to match the cost of living?

Actually we have environmental pollution laws here. Part of why I’d like to see tariffs against China, etc., is because their industries pollute more than ours.

Toyota builds factories here and they pollute less than car factories in China.

Oh and do you really believe that China’s pollution stays in China? Wrong… it comes over here.

Welp, you know what they say, denial isn’t just a river in Egypt.

You’re stuck with the belief that you have the superior argument and your inability to convince anyone outside your enclave of your beliefs is because… what, again? You’re better than them?

It sucks to be you. Oh and I should look up Ayn Rand’s gravesite for a visit. Preferably after I’ve had a few drinks.

Unemployment was higher in 2010 than in 2009, jackass. You see that link right there? That’s called a cite. Use it.

Did you read your own cite? Only 22% think companies should be forced to bring jobs back home. Most Brits disagree with you, it seems.

And newsflash: I want to see offshoring stopped, too. Thing is, I can’t wish for more sunshine or more oil deposits under the ground. So where is America going to get its coffee, chocolate, or oil?

Where, Jack? Answer the question with a statement, not another question.

But if the United States raised massive tariffs against China et al. but not against Canada - this is your plan, not mine, I’m just going by what you say you want to do - Canada would immediately benefit to the tune of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of jobs by using Chinese inputs for exports bound for the United States. Your own plan would make offshoring incredibly valuable to Canada, even more so than it is now. You’re effectively setting Canada up to be the most profitable middleman in the history of commerce.

Now, would you please explain where, under your plan, the United States would get coffee, chocolate, and most importantly, oil?

Hey, Le Jaq, I have an honest question for you. What is your line of work? I’m just really curious.

No, I’m not taking the piss out of you. You just have me wondering.

Should someone tell Le Jack-off that the US has run trade deficits with Canada and the EU (and Japan) for years?

I don’t think there’s any common economic topic that is more widely discusssed while being more widely misunderstood than the trade deficit: Le Jerk-off, go and read up on balance of payments, and only come back after you understand it will always balance, and why a trade deficit, in and of itself, is not always a bad thing. Hint: A trade deficit is not like a ‘budget deficit’.

According to posts he’s made in the past he’s independently wealthy…in the top 1%. I’m sure it’s as true as his other statements. Since he has me on ignore it will be interesting what he comes back with this time, assuming he actually answers you, instead of calling you a boypussy or whatever kick he’s on today.

-XT

No, you can’t assume that, either – you’re right. But as you’re the one arguing that moving production from China to the US would not appreciably raise prices, it behooves you to provide reasons for that belief. Namely, why would are the factors which would lower prices overwhelm the factors which would not? Until such reasons are given, I see no compelling reason to update my priors.

You misunderstand. I suggest that the kind of work which businesses choose to outsource to China is not likely to be the kind of work at which Americans are most productive. Thus there is at least one reason to believe that the comparative productivity figures you cite cannot be naively extrapolated. This has nothing to do with the number of individuals currently out of work.

Again, you misunderstand. I am neither making normative claims nor catastrophic predictions. I am arguing that there are reasons to believe that the real price of goods would rise if production were brought to the US. Higher wages is one of those reasons. If you wish to argue that higher wages would be a positive benefit you’re free to do so, but you can’t ignore it when it hurts your claims and emphasize it when it is convenient.

Perhaps, but I didn’t claim that American wages would “go up to match the [presumably more expensive] cost of living”. I wrote that wages for factory workers would probably go up, to some unknown degree, causing higher prices. What would happen in the broader economy is not known to me.

Yes, we do have pollution laws, but – to the extent that pollution laws are effective – they increase the cost of doing business. And they are not by any means totally effective, so I am dubious about claims that environmental quality would not go down.

Of course it does. Conversely, are you arguing that the environmental quality in a particular area is unrelated to the geographic distance between that area and the sources of pollution? If I blew cigarette smoke in your face, would it be felt to the same degree by some random person in China? If I dump sewage on the lawn next door, is it something someone in Mexico will have to deal with?

Well, no. I believe things generally because I have been given persuasive arguments for them (or I try). What methodological claims are you making here? That any argument held by a minority of individuals is always wrong? I agree that that a majority of individuals holding some belief is a valid reason for investigating that belief and even taking it seriously. On the other hand, you seem to be suggesting that the quality of an argument doesn’t matter – all that matters is a popularity contest, and the degree of verisimilitude to be accorded a proposition is a function solely of the proportion of individuals holding that proposition. This would be a strikingly democratic philosophy of science, but not – to say the least! – a very reliable one.

Oh, god, no, no, don’t do that. Please; you’ll make me cry! Surely someone with the handle Paranoid Randroid can’t hold Ayn Rand except in the highest esteem …

You know, I think we can all agree Le Jaq has a screw loose- but it really saddens me because I would love to see a current naunced debate on outsourcing. The fact is, free trade is here and corporations saw they could maximize their profits if they started to manufacture goods overseas for a significantly cheaper price, or if they paid a middleman company to do so. In return, U.S. consumers pay a very cheap price for their goods. There is no magical world in which goods would still be cheap and the manufacturing jobs would all return to America. However, would it be possible to impose limited regulation on companies in order to keep jobs here in America which might, in combination with the current small business tax credits for hiring U.S. workers, drive down the almost 10% unemployment rate? That’s something I’d really like to know. The OP proposed a pretty preposterous plan, but can anything be done to reduce outsourcing/could it have been? Would the increased price of goods be offset by the increase of jobs in America and increased wages?

Give it a week or so then start a good, structured debate on outsourcing in GD. I’d love to see some of the better economics 'dopers discuss the topic. You certainly aren’t going to get a debate here in the Pit, and certainly not when a loony like the horned one starts it or participates in it.

-XT

To go a bit further here …

It should be noted that, at a great many points throughout history, a majority of individuals has held beliefs that were false or (to a modern person) morally repugnant. Disbelief in the phenomenon of evolution; the moral justification of slavery; ever more complicated models of celestial motion to avoid conceding the movement of planetary bodies around the sun; Newtonian mechanics giving way to general relativity. Although the roundness of the earth has been known by the elite for millennia, my guess is that a random sample of 7th century peasants would reveal a belief in the earth’s flatness – and rightly so – its flatness is empirically obvious and almost no one would have had any pragmatic reason to doubt it.

That is to say nothing of unintuitive mathematical facts or implausible biological findings … black swans? Duckbilled platypuses?

To what extent does scientific justification owe anything to popularity? Is it possible to devise an argument “airtight enough” that not even extreme unpopularity could make it doubtful? On the other hand, is it possible that the arguments for a proposition will be bad enough that not even overwhelming agreement would make them likely? If everyone outside of Utah died tomorrow, would it suddenly be reasonable to belief that Joseph Smith really did find the golden plates?

When did I say unemployment was lower in 2010, you idiot?

Reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, is it?

We’ll still get it. At fair prices. And if oil goes up we’ll switch to alternative fuels. Which is what I want.

There is no such thing as cheap oil - you just pay the price for it in other areas like pollution and terrorist attacks. Oil is heavily subsidized as it is.

Dumbass.

Will someone tell Dragon’s Asshole here that these deficits pale in comparison to the ones we run with China?

No one is saying it is, Draggin’ ass.

Ah yes, now you’re the persecuted minority.

You simply have no explanation for why you’re losing ground instead of gaining it.

We all have a screw loose and you’re the poor beset-upon wise minority. The same ones that say high unemployment is good for employers and business owners can’t get good employees when unemployment is down and employee’s markets are bad for society.

Economics as a science. Offshoring being good for the economy. High unemployment a good thing for employers.

Don’t forget those myths.

Joseph Smith found those golden plates right next to all the jobs created in America by offshoring.

Actually what I said was that a rise in prices would by offset by a rise in wages.

So you believe an 8 to 1 productivity advantage would simply vanish in the equation?

Or maybe offshoring has nothing to do with what work Americans are most productive at doing, and everything to do with each company trying to save money on labor costs while hoping that there’ll still be a vibrant American market to sell to. The latter bet having paid off poorly as evidenced by the absolute gutting of the economy - which the crash of 2008 only exposed, rather than precipitated.

Right now wages are failing to keep up with inflation, even in this deflationary period. How can that be WORSE than wages rising with the price of goods?

All I said was productivity would slow and maybe even negate the rise in the price of goods; I never said a rise in the price of goods was necessarily bad, considering what wages will do in response.

You also mentioned “the dramatic increase in competition for American workers driving up wages”. An increase in competition for American workers is a good thing for workers.

Ah yes, they increase the cost of doing business. Well, too bad. Society cannot be honest and hold companies not liable for the subtle and incremental damage they do to the environment. If you dump toxic waste in your neighbor’s yard they have a right to hold you liable and the law has a right to tell you to manage your waste without poisoning someone else. Likewise with businesses.

We consumers pay a litany of hidden costs for businesses that pollute. Even when they pollute way over in China, it drifts over here. It also poisons our oceans; and we pay for that, too. Not to mention acid rain from all the massive Chinese dirty coal power plants and the underground coal seam fires raging in China as we speak - ones that make Centralia look like a barbecue grill fire.

Moving the pollution over to China instead of putting more stringent controls over it here is the most dishonest, cowardly and long term destructive option of all. And we’re all going to pay for it in very tangible ways regardless.

Me, I’d rather pay the price to cut down on the pollution rather than be a coward and have it moved somewhere else.

See above. It’s outright cowardice, irresponsibility and hypocrisy to move the pollution somewhere else. We’re all going to pay the price for that, whether it’s now or later.

Offshoring jobs is bad enough; offshoring pollution instead of enacting stricter controls, is even worse.

Nope. This may horrify or even arouse your disdain but this has boiled down to Red team vs Blue team. One must GTFO of America. However it must be done.

America’s working class has suffered long enough from the antics of economic policies that you defend - the loss of job stability, the damage this wreaks on family cohesion, the steady and slow erosion of wages against cost of living expenses, the disappearing middle class whose misfortunes are the only reasons why China’s and India’s middle class is growing…

The people out there know your arguments are bullshit. This is not evolution vs creationism… this is the people knowing your arguments, understanding them fully, and rejecting them.

Yup, we all got a screw loose. And you’re the only sane ones out there. Uh huh.

Hope that keeps you warm.

None of the countries you’ve proposed free trade with produce coffee or chocolate in any significant quantity - they may make the finished product but the materials all come from the low-wage countries you want to erect trade barriers with.

Furthermore, the countries you do want to trade with do not produce enough oil to meet U.S. needs. The U.S. would either see its economy effectively collapse - you can’t just switch to “alternative fuels” overnight, and oil serves many purposes besides filling gas tanks - or would have to lower trade barriers with the countries you don’t want to trade with.

So where is it all going to come from?

Shoot, I forgot about that. He has implied that he has me on ignore, too.

If anyone else would do be the favor of asking him what line of work he is in, I’d be much obliged. I’m not trying to attack him, I’m just really curious what his profession is.

I never claimed to be in a persecuted minority. I said the majority can, and has been, wrong, and in fact I suspect that there is very little epistemic value in majority opinion as a means to acquire truth.

I don’t have to explain any such thing, even if it’s happening (which I neither confirm nor deny but am willing to suppose for argument). You are either providing reasons to believe offshoring is a negative or you are not; to the extent that you appeal to majority opinion it is the latter. Are you suggesting that justification of a belief requires an explanation of why others hold or do not hold that belief?

I have never said – and, indeed, would never think – that persons who disagree with me on matters of economic policy “have a screw loose”. Is the very fact of my disagreement evidence of disdain? Why is it not possible to civilly believe the that mainstream economists can be correct on matters where majority opinion is wrong? Would you believe the same thing in psychology, or biology, or medicine?

Economics is a kind of science, yes. Offshoring can arguably (!) be good for the economy. High unemployment may, all things equal, be good for a subset of employers, to the extent that employers must compete for labor. These two are plausible beliefs, subject to refinement, further argument, and even some degree of confirmation/falsification.

Have they? Seriously – if I grab someone off the street, someone who works for a living at a job unrelated to economic policy, has no formal training in economics, and for whom no one has taken the time to explain the arguments for and against offshoring – such people “know” the arguments, understand them fully, and reject them? Whatever you think of the correctness of the arguments made by economists, evaluating them requires some training in economics. It is one thing not to be disdainful of non-academics; it is another thing to worship them and attribute to them knowledge and wisdom that they cannot be expected to have.

To be honest, it is unclear to me why you continue to bring up majority opinion. Majority opinion is simply not a good guide to the acquisition of truth, so surely you’re not taking seriously the claim that I should change my opinion because a majority (arguably) disagrees. So what’s the point?

Let’s pretend that Americans are 80 times more productive that their Chinese counterpart.

Let’s also pretend that you understand labour resources.

If I needed my lawn mowed, the 80 to 1 ratio would suggest that I would need 80 Chinese workers to complete the job that 1 red blooded American could do in one day. That makes an American worker worth 80 times more than a Chinese worker.

The most basic economic consideration would then be, which is cheaper: that 1 American will want $15/hour, medical, dental, vacation, time off because his/her kid is home sick, etc. Round that up and say it would cost $130 for me to hire an American. If offshoring could get my lawn mowed for $100, I have $30 more to put into the economy, yes, it means 1 American is out of work, but keep this point in mind, it will be important later.

The second consideration is that if Americans are so productive, why would I want to waste that on mowing a lawn? As an example, Canada makes it very easy for medical doctors to immigrate, but then makes it extremely hard for them to get licensed. As a result, many are forced to work very low-end jobs to stay solvent, such as driving a taxi.

Under your logic, you’d say that was great, he has a job, and nothing, NOTHING, NOTHING is worse than being unemployed.

But the guy is trained as a doctor, he represents a valuable asset to the economy. We have lots of people that can drive taxis, but only a few that can perform heart bypass.

Under your system, you would rather have Americans with Masters degrees chained up in factories, assembling Bic Pens for minimum wage. To you that would mean success. 0% unemployment because the state has seen to it that everyone has a task.

Offshoring frees up valuable American workers so that they can be put to better use. Getting people off assembly lines meant that fewer people could drop out of highschool and get a nice stable low wage job. As a result, Americans have some of the highest literacy rates, and some of the highest secondary education rates. One follows the other. Flood your economy with low skill jobs and you’ll produce a nation of low skill labour.

Historically: software development, as it was new, was highly skilled. Few people were trained in it, and it was in high demand. Over the course of a generation the market got saturated with computer scientists capable of little more than cranking out low end code. What used to be high skill became mundane. Initially this meant that products requiring a lot of code were extremely expensive, software used to cost a lot considering how little it did.

Companies noticed that high cost and realized that the Ukraine was able to generate huge numbers of equally trained software engineers who demanded a fraction of the salary. So over the past few years a lot of low end coding has been sent to the Ukraine. This meant the elimination of a lot of US jobs, but it also meant the cost of coding has fallen.

So if we were to be myopic about this, we’d say of boo hoo, Americans lost their jobs. But pragmatically, it means fewer students are going to look at CS as the big money maker, and instead see it as the new secretarial pool. Those students will focus their efforts and energy on the next new thing. The Ukraine will continue to be a country full of code-monkies, while the US will grown and progress.

Or at least it would, except that you ensured every American is guaranteed low wage mindless employment. Students now have an incentive to drop out of highschool, get a 6 month code-diploma from the University of Phoenix, and spend the rest of their life generating code for some other country’s development.

So the question: do you want to maintain American productivity? If it’s 8-1 now, would you rather it be 12-1, or 1-8? Feel free to answer that with one of your moronic questions, like “uh, black night, would you like everyone to be unemployed ah yuck yuck.”

This statement once again shows how little you understand about business, economics, and labour costs. Why do I say that? As an insult? No, I say that because I spend most of my time negotiating with vendors to save money on production. Today I spent an hour trying to get the cost of plastic containers from 18 down to 15cents, that will save me thousands per month. Should I have wasted my time?

I also need to make sure my employees are working as effectively as they can. In order to stay solvent I need to minimize labour costs, otherwise my prices go up and I lose business to my competitor. If I lose business I don’t have enough money to pay my staff.

Make note here: My salary will remain very good whether I’m working at 600 units per day, or my new goal of 1600 units per day. But the latter means I’ll hire an additional 8 guys and 2 drivers.

Fuck with my costs and those guys are out on the street, is that what you want? Or do you want them employed? Make it harder for me and I’ll just as happily go back to producing 150 units per day and enjoy more free time with my wife.

If you are going to use this sentence in your posts, you need to actually apply what it means to the rest of YOUR threads.

You want a vibrent American market to sell to. So shove your bullshit ideology, uh, what’s the rule on that? How about you drop your bullshit ideology and do what’s best for all 320million Americans, including the 16million unemployed.

God you’re an idiot.

Just what do you think a rise in prices means? If a company is facing higher prices for raw materials and supplies, why in the world do you think the company would be likely to raise wages?

Offshoring of jobs may be bad for some industries. For example, call-center work is the most well-known example, but the fact of the matter is, any job that can be done regardless of location is subject to competition. This competition isn’t new: Firms in (for example) California always competed with other firms in California, or neighboring states - or, in the Internet age, with firms on the other side of the country. The competitive environment is just now more global: US grads aren’t just competing against other US and UK grads, they’re competing against grads from China, India, Brazil, etc.

This is a good thing for everyone - in the long run. Lower labor costs for US firms that offshore means lower prices for all consumers. Jobs that are offshored are usually the lower value-added (and thus lower-paying) jobs, yet often still pay better than other jobs in that country: note that in India, working at a call center is a much sought-after, lucrative position. The gradual growth of those countries means they can afford more US goods and services.

And it’s a mechanism that forces US companies and workers to be more productive and more innovative…and innovation/productivity is the key to continued economic growth. It frees up resources to be allocated to increasingly higher-value jobs.

Are there short-term negative drawbacks? You bet, especially for specific sectors. If you are a call center professional in the US, your future prospects are dim. But the key is to ensure a safety net and training (specifically, I’m thinking our overall education system) so that over the long term, as jobs in one low added-value sector are lost, it’s offset by the creation of higher value-added jobs. It doesn’t happen overnight, and it is never completely painless, but that’s why you have safety nets and income transfers and health/unemployment insurance, etc. The solution isn’t to stop offshoring. The solution is to fix and fill some of the gaps that pure capitalism can leave behind, not lose all the benefits of free trade.

In the early 1800s, almost 90% of workers in the US were in farming. Now that number is under 5%. OMG, 85% of US jobs were lost! :rolleyes: In Le Jerk-off’s world we’d all still be farmers, I guess. Instead of providing cars, semiconductors, iPads, Facebook, heart transplants.

Stop thinking about jobs & money in some sort of overly simplistic, finite, ‘zero-sum’ game. Although from your posts I honestly don’t think you have the intellectual capacity to do so.

I think I love you.

Regards,
Shodan