I’m sure they do, and they undoubtedly phrased it this way deliberately in order to get a bigger headline figure. Plus I bet the average person doesn’t know, or at least wouldn’t remember while reading, that ‘jail’ does not encompass all, or even the majority, of those incarcerated. Many will have the same misunderstanding BB did, and all will come away with the impression that it’s a bigger fraction than the reality.
I don’t expect ordinary people to know the technical details on every issue, however, it provides a lot of scope for media, government and organisations to manipulate the public without telling a single lie.
Whether or not this is so, there’s no point debating with anyone who ignores arguments and evidence and continues to insist they’re right, especially over a simple misunderstanding.
Is it ‘frighteningly large’? The best estimate I can find for the total percentage of pre-trial inmates in the US is 23.3% - that’s a heck of a lot less than 62%, but still much higher than I would have guessed before looking into the question. But I have no idea what is normal in this area, so I googled figures for some other countries:
- In England and Wales* it was 18% in 2000, was reduced to 11% by 2019, and has now risen to 20.3%, presumably due to COVID induced court delays.
- In New Zealand it has risen from 13.3% in 2000 to 24.1% in 2015 to an eye-watering 43.3% today.
- In Canada it has risen from 24.6% in 2001 to a frighteningly large 46.6% in 2023.
- I couldn’t find older stats for Australia, but the most recent figure seems to be 40.6%.
(*The UK government doesn’t release crime stats for the whole country, I suspect because the NI figures would have made them look really bad during the Troubles.)
The US is hardly a standout here - the latter 3 countries seemingly have a far more serious issue with pre-trial detention than America.
I picked Anglosphere countries because they have similar legal systems, but looking at a few others really doesn’t suggest the US is doing unusually badly in this area. The ACLU figure ‘lacks context’, as the fact checkers say.
Having said that, it doesn’t mean there isn’t a need for reform. Cash bail is not necessarily the best way of handling it - if it doesn’t take a defendant’s income into account, it’s very obviously unfair. Perhaps it would be better to allow judges to refuse bail altogether if there is good evidence the person may abscond or commit further crimes such as intimidating witnesses, while granting it no cash required to most defendants. And/or use measures like electronic monitoring that can help mitigate these issues without locking people up. Besides that, overburdened courts seem to be a major cause of these high numbers in every country. Wide use of plea bargaining in the US is presumably a response to this, but as already mentioned, it comes with considerable downsides. Is there any real solution to backlogs other than more funding for courts?