The idea that, for example, when peak oil is arrived at all our technology implodes or when the aquifer is depleted that we all die of dehydration or something, rather than realizing that the market simply moves to a different standard.
Is there one?
A Malthusian Catastrophe?
That would be an example of someone practicing this fallacy, yes. But there doesn’t seem to be an accepted term called a “malthusian fallacy”.
Probably I’d called it an “inelasticity fallacy”, presuming that I get to invent it.
Are you looking for a “logical fallacy”? Because the OP is simply putting forth some erroneous statements, not premises leading to a conclusion.
I suppose it’s more of a cognitive bias than a fallacy, but I think it is a way of thinking that is sufficiently prevalent that it’s worthy of a term. For instance, there is the term fear mongering, which is sort of the flip side of the coin of what I mean. Fear mongerers prey on this cognitive failing by drumming up the consequences, but we fall prey to it because we presume that the way things are currently done is the only way it can be done, so if our ability to continue as we are runs up, then somehow that leaves us stranded.
I guess to state what I’d be looking for is something like:
Inelasticity Bias: The presumption that what we are familiar with can never be nearly matched by alternate options.
The closest that I can find is the endowment effect (or the status quo bias), but those simply say that people are suspicious of change, not that they presume change to be impossible or infeasible.
‘Catastrophizing’ ?
Logically, I think it’s just a false premise:
I agree with this, and no of no formal name for it, but would call it “ignoring alternatives.” It seems to me vaguely related to false dichotomy, where only two polar opposite alternatives are presented but in reality there are a spectrum of alternatives (“You’re either with us, or you’re with the terrorists”). That is, “We either have plentiful energy with oil, or none when it runs out.”
Could be a variant on the slippery slope, depending on how it is phrased. Or:
X happens
???
[del]PROFIT[/del] DOOM!!!
Catastrophising is the closest standard term, ie overfocussing on the worst possible outcome, or even outcomes that arent even really possible. Generally associated with anxiety.
The opposite would be the optimism bias, ie that things will always turn out for the best and underestimating the possible negative effects of the given event.
Otara
I call it the straight line fallacy.
Almost all predictions about the future take the current trend line and extend it blindly outward. That’s why all those early futures seem so quaint today.
In reality, new discoveries and changes - technology and social - make huge differences in the way trends play out. But we can’t ever know what those are in advance, so it’s much easier not to have to even think about them.