The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an attempted end run around the Electoral College. The basic idea is that states sign up, promising to give all of their votes to the winner of the popular vote if and only if there are 270 or more EVs signed up. Once that happens, states within the compact will decide the election, regardless of what happens with the remaining states.
So far, there are 165 EVs within the compact, so it has a little ways to go. As might be expected, the states currently within the compact all lean blue.
I guess what I’m curious about is what it would take to get more states to join. It’s a tricky bit of game theory, really. What’s the right argument?
One semi-naive view is to look at all the states that have a lower-than-average EV/capita ratio. There are 347 EVs in this range–more than enough. Texas gets almost as screwed as California here, and Florida isn’t far behind.
Perhaps a better way is to look at non-swing states. There’s even more EVs at play here; using Politico’s list of 11 battleground states, there are 392 non-swing EVs. Voters in non-swing states have essentially no influence on the election.
But perhaps what really matters to the states is whether the current setup favors their preferred party. And that, right now, means Republicans. Would Texas really sign up for this, even though their individual votes are worthless, given that the popular vote leans Democratic?
I dunno. The majority of individual Democrats and Republicans support a popular vote, but the legislators have to agree, and that’s certainly not guaranteed.
On an optimistic note, of the states where the NPVIC is law, most of them took several tries. There are several more states where the bill has passed one or both houses. It may then just be a matter of time before getting everyone onboard.
Of course, a Constitutional amendment would be ideal, and maybe that could happen if and when NPVIC happens.