Serious question, will OKC make the playoffs this year? Its not completely crazy that they’re in too big of a hole right now, this early in the season, to make the 8th seed. Here’s the current standings as of tonight:
2014-2015
- Memphis…15 - 2
- Golden State…14 - 2
- Portland…13 - 4
- Houston…13 - 4
- San Antonio…13 - 4
- Dallas…13 - 5
- LA Clippers…12 - 5
- Phoenix…10 - 8
- Sacramento…9 - 8
- Denver…9 - 8
- New Orleans…8 - 8
- Oklahoma City…5 - 13
- Utah…5 - 13
- LA Lakers…5 - 13
- Minnesota…4 - 12
For comparison, these are last year’s standings:
2013-2014
- San Antonio…62 - 20
- Oklahoma City…59 - 23
- L.A. Clippers… 57 - 25
- Houston…54 - 28
- Portland…54 - 28
- Golden State…51 - 31
- Memphis…50 - 32
- Dallas…49 - 33
- Phoenix…48 - 34
- Minnesota…40 - 42
- Denver…36 - 46
- New Orleans…34 - 48
- Sacramento…28 - 54
- L.A. Lakers…27 - 55
- Utah…25 - 57
Of course OKC is only in this hole because of injuries. But it was to both their big stars. Other teams might, and probably will lose one guy for a while, or two guys at different times, but its hard to imagine 2 people as important to a team as Durant and Westbrook both going down at the same time. I think looking at history and the standings right, barring injuries, you can pencil in Memphis, Golden State, Portland, Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and the Clippers into the top 8. That’s 7 spots already.
I don’t think there’s any question that Memphis, Golden State, and Dallas are better than they are last year. They won 50, 51, and 49 games in 2013-14. Clippers might be a little worse, but they won 57 games and I don’t see them going under 50 games this year. San Antonio will make it, Pop knows how to use his guys better than any coach I’ve ever seen. Leonard is a star now and he’s adding better scoring to his repertoire. They won’t win 62 games I think, but they’ll be a high seed. That leaves Houston and Portland. Both teams have started better this year, but I can see them falling into a bit of a funk and out of the top 4-5 seed like they were last year. 54 wins (for both) might be down to around 48-50, but in exact opposite to OKC’s fortunes, they might have built up enough of a cushion early to fall a little and still make a mid or high seed.
That means the 8th seed will be super competitive, and some perennial doormats are competing for that spot right now. Let’s look at the history first. The 8th, 9th, and 10th seeds in the West in the last few years have records as follows:
2013-14: 49-33, 48-34, 40-42
2012-13: 45-37, 43-39, 41-41
2011-12 (shortened season, projected 82 standings): 36-30 (44-38), 34-32 (42-40), 33-33 (41-41)
2010-11: 46-36, 43-39, 40-42
2009-10: 50-32, 42-40, 40-42
So on average, you’ll need about 46-47 games to make it and at least over 0.500 to be in the hunt. Now let’s look at this year’s competition:
- Phoenix…10 - 8 (48-36)
- Sacramento…9 - 8 (28-54)
- Denver…9 - 8 (36-46)
- New Orleans…8 - 8 (34-48)
- Oklahoma City…5 - 13 (59-23*)
- Utah…5 - 13 (25-57)
Phoenix, as far as I can see, is about even with last year. Sacramento is a lot better. Denver had a 6 game losing streak, but they’ve bounced back. New Orleans is better, but that’s only because Anthony Davis is beasting it up. Might be a little early for him to carry that team into the playoffs, but its not entirely out of the question. And Utah is only there because they have the same record as OKC, nobody expects them to do anything still
Let’s say the 8th seed needs 47 games this year to make it, that’s a pretty reasonable number. The West is still feasting on the East and don’t expect to stop in the near future. The best 2 teams in the East last year, Miami and Indiana, are both completely different teams due to free agency or injuries, and Lebron’s Cavs are starting slow so far. I don’t think the 1 seed in the East will win 58 games, or if they do, #2 is going to cap at like 55 games.
OKC with Durant and Westbrook is certainly good enough to go 42-22 the rest of the season, but that’s not good enough. Phoenix is 5 games better than OKC. OKC will have to go close to 47-17 if it hopes to over take all 4 teams above it. Phoenix right now is good enough to knock OKC out of the playoffs if they simply play as well as they did last year, I think, and Sacramento and New Orleans will probably have the biggest win/loss jump from last year out of any team in the West, OKC can’t just count on beating the teams above them to make it, they have to hope for some injuries, some luck, and Durant and Westbrook to play out of their minds coming back from injuries. They can do it, but it won’t be easy.