NBA Draft 2007 Thread

Cafe Society
1

We had a decent lottery thread (good debates), so why not a draft thread.

I am excited about tonight. I think there will be an all-star caliber player or two (or FIVE!) traded tonight.

Oh, and there is a draft as well!

My top five most likely to be traded:

1 KG- All of his trades seem tied to draft picks. It’s now or never.
2 J. Oneal- The writing is on the wall.
3 Marion or Amare- I think Phoenix gets KG
4 Zach Randolph- The 20/10 sleeper.
5 Paul Pierce- No one wants to go to Boston, so it might be best to move Pierce.

A trade I recommend that helps all teams is as follows:

Boston Celtics
GET:
Primoz Brezec
Zach Randolph
Adam Morrison

LOSE:
Paul Pierce, Theo Ratliff’s expiring fat contract, Delonte West

WHY DO IT:
You get young a 20-10 PF (albeit with some baggage) without giving up the #5 pick, Gerald Green or the very talented Al Jefferson. Draft Cory Brewer with the #5 and here is your lineup for the next five years:
Rondo/Green/Brewer/Randolph/Jefferson with Morrison (he LOOKS like Larry), Gomes and Perkins coming off the bench. Pierce has taken them as far as they can go.

Charlotte Bobcats

GET:
Paul Pierce

LOSE:
Primoz Brezec, Adam Morrison, Sean May, #9 Pick

WHY DO IT:
You get a certified superstar score to go with all the nearly developed talent. The problem with this team is there is no scorer that terrifies defenses. Pierce erases that deficiency. And really, you don’t have to give up too much to get it done. May and Morrison are under-performers, Brezec is solid but redundant, and the #9 is just another pick that needs time to flourish. This team needs a stud vet and Pierce could put them in position to be fighting for home court advantage come April.

Portland Trail Blazers

GET:
Theo Ratliff’s expiring fat contract
Delonte West
Sean May
#9

LOSE:
Zach Randolph

WHY DO IT:
For the most part, it is addition by subtraction. Randolph has offcourt problems and it is better to get rid of him before he poisons the well of the team of the 2010s. Plus, you get a steady PG with a little experience, a solid backup big man, and a player at the #9 (Noah, Green or Brewer if the Celts made a mistake and took Yi). Plus, it opens the way for Aldridge to start at PF.
They would go to war with: Delonte West/Roy (rookie of the year)/#9 selection/Aldridge/Oden with Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster, Sean May and Joel Pryzbilla coming off the bench. Wow!

Back to the draft:

UNDERRATED:
Sean Williams- Center- BC. Disciplinary Problems keep this guy from being a mid first rounder.

Glen Davis- F/C- LSU. Big Baby is fat. That is why he is looking at the first round from the outside. He sprained an ankle yesterday during a workout which for a fat guy is the NBA equivalent of riding the motorized shopping cart at WalMart. But the guy is taller than expected and had great stats in a tough conference. A second round “make good” contract might be better for him than a guaranteed deal anyway.

Morris Almond- He’s going to be a really good player with teammates who are actually talented. He isn’t atheletic, but he can shoot and score. Truth in advertising, I go to Rice for grad school and may be biased.

OVERRATED:

Yi Jianlian- Wouldn’t work out against anyone, is probably lying about his age, didn’t even do the NBA combine tests. Nikoloz Tskitishvili called. He wants his draft hype back.

Either Wright- Brandon or Julian. Both will stink.

Finally, my lottery prediction. Not what I’d do, but what I think they’ll do:

Portland- Greg Oden 7-0 257 C Ohio St. Fr.
Seattle- Kevin Durant 6-10 215 SF Texas Fr.
Atlanta- Al Horford 6-10 244 PF Florida Jr.
Memphis Joakim Noah 6-11 230 PF Florida Jr.
Boston Yi Jianlian 7-0 242 PF China 1984
Milwaukee Mike Conley 6-1 175 PG Ohio St. Fr.
Minnesota Corey Brewer 6-8 185 SF Florida Jr.
Charlotte Jeff Green 6-9 228 SF Georgetown Jr.
Chicago Brandan Wright 6-10 200 PF UNC Fr.
Sacramento Javaris Crittenton 6-4 194 PG G.Tech Fr.
Atlanta Acie Law 6-3 186 PG Texas A&M Sr.
Philadelphia Spencer Hawes 7-0 244 C Wash. Fr.
New Orleans Nick Young 6-6 206 SG USC Jr.
LA Clippers Rodney Stuckey 6-5 207 SG E. Wash. So.

2

I think the chances of Portland repeating the disaster that was 1984 (Portland chose Sam Bowie of Kentucky with the second pick. Chicago took Michael Jordan with the third.) is very high. Oden is a great talent, a smart guy and an all-around player, but he just isn’t going to be a superstar. He will be a very good player, maybe even a perrenial all-star, but he doesn’t have the ability to take over a game like the greatest can.

Kevin Durant, on the other hand, has that ability. So he can’t bench press his own bodyweight, who cares. He can drop 30 on you in a half. A lot of guys have been pegged as the “next Jordan”, but Durant is the first guy I’ve seen who actually has the chance to fill those shoes.

Durant was the only guy on Texas’ roster that the other team needed to stop, and look at some of the games he had:

21 pts, 13 rebounds in his second game in college.
37 and 16 @ Colorado
37 and 23 @ Texas Tech
28 and 15 @ Texas A&M
30 and 16 vs. A&M
32 and 10 @ Oklahoma

I’m glad I’m not the Portland GM.

3

Yeah, everyone here is waffling between Oden and Durant. There are attractive reasons to take either guy.

FWIW, a lot of people I know are leaning toward Durant. Maybe the ghost of Sam Bowie is exerting influence?

4

Big Men win titles. Every dynasty in NBA history has had a hall of fame caliber post player (maybe not the late 80s Pistons.).

Jordan is the outlier. The Blazers should go with Oden and never look back.

5

That’s two of the last three dynasties.

6

It is two of the last five.

If the Pistons are a dynasty, you have to allow for the Rockets (dynasty defined basically as any team with multiple titles with the same core in a limited period of time).

So it would be them (2), the Bulls (6), the Rockets (2), the Lakers (3) and the Spurs (4).

That’s a 9 to 8 spread favoring a team with a HOF big man. If we drop the extreme ends (Bulls and Spurs), it is 5 to 2.

Going back further, adding the Lakers (Kareem) and the Celtics (Parrish, McHale and Bird), it goes overwhelmingly in favor of the big man.

I like your argument that recent developments show it trending toward the wing player, but those numbers are corrupted by Jordan’s presence on 6 of those teams.

He was a force. Durant is not going to be 80% of Jordan. He may well be 75%, and that will be a surefire HOF-er, but it is more likely he is the next Vince Carter or LeBron James.

On the downside, he could be the next Glenn Robinson or Penny Hardaway. All-Stars, but not the next coming.

Oden could be the next Duncan, but I think his downside is the next Ewing. That’s a smaller window.

7

The thing that confuses me more than anything is that Chicago isn’t more involved in the KG trade talks. He’s a hometown guy who’d get to more to the Eastern Conference and dominate on a team that’s one star away.

We could give Gordon (who I think is overrated because he’s too streaky and turnover prone) and Deng (replaces 75% of KGs output for half the price at half the age) and the Number 9 pick. This works for both teams, the Bulls may feel they are giving up too much and perhaps they could work a third team in there in order to move down in the third round and get back a shooting guard to come off the bench. I know there are teams who’d trade up to get Yi and they could ship that late first rounder to the Wolves. KG is an infinitely better fit than Kobe who was in all the rumors.

The Bulls would start a lineup of Wallace, KG, Nocioni, Hinrich and Duhon with Ty Thomas and Sefolosha off the Bench. I think that could win championships.

I prefer the option if sending PJ Brown instead of the Number 9 pick so we can grab Nick Young or Acie Law. I think that helps the Cap number work better too.

Most of all, I hope the Bulls can add a veteran scorer instead of using that draft pick. If they take Yi I’m setting myself on fire.

8

Deng for Garnett is more than I’m willing to pay, if I’m the Bulls. Garnett would help a lot, but he’s expensive and nearer to the end of his career. Deng is the reverse, and as a result I don’t think the money in that trade works out at all. If I could get Garnett without giving up Deng, I’d do that.

9

Depends what your priorities are. KG could help the Bulls win now. Similar to the argument for the Suns swapping him for Amare, they have to win while Nash can still play.

The Bulls don’t have anyone like Nash to be the ticking timebomb, but they aren’t going to be able to keep everyone together forever. I’d rather win 2 titles now with KG than 2 titles later with Deng. Plus KG would be a ratings and jersey sales dynamo in his hometown city. The Bulls would be wise to accept a luxury tax hit if they need to, a successful KG in this city would be huge financially.

Deng is a nice asset, but his ceiling is similar to Elton Brand’s. And All-Star but not a transcendent guy. Garnett is only 31 and has been pretty damned durable. I think it’s fair to think he’s got 5 more seasons in him. He’s only under contract until 2009 anyways and he’ll certainly be a star for the balance of that deal.

Frankly, I think you are making a pretty good case for the Bulls being able to get KG for just Gordon, Deng and PJ Brown’s expiring contract. If we keep that pick we can replace Gordon with one of the good guards in this draft. Nick Young is going to be a bigger, better shooting version of Gordon anyways.

10

The only reason to trade Deng for KG is if you think KG gets you at least one title before he breaks down.

I think Deng, as awesome as he is, is near his peak. That is a ways away from KG.

I think a team of KG, Hinrich, Wallace and Nocioni are the favorites in the East. Once in the finals, it is on the shooters. KG can nullify or offset Duncan (Wow. I just assumed the Spurs are there! That was a complete accident!). It is on the rest of the team to win it against the backcourt players.

Hmm. That’s not as good. The Bulls as constituted could use the #9 and still get to the finals. Maybe the Bulls should just hold pat and tinker around the edges.

Of course, they should have kept Aldridge last year over Thomas…

11

I can’t get used to “Charlotte Bobcats”. I still think “Charlotte Hornets”. God, I’m hopeless.

12

I’m not used to it either. That was such a ridiculous mess.

13

Here’s my take on this stuff.
-Oden is the correct pick, even if Durant ends up being Very Good. If there’s a franchise center, you take the franchise center.
-The Celtics are screwed. They’ll make the wrong pick.
-Chicago is lusting after Yi. It’s going to happen.
-Phoenix should trade Amare for Garnett and whatever else they’ll throw in. Amare needs someone to get the ball to him, not so much for Garnett.
-This is Joe Dumars’ most important draft here. Good picks mean the Pistons stay atop the Eastern Conference. Bad picks could end up in a puddle of shit.

14

Chicago is only KG’s hometown if you read the Chicago Tribune (which has been predicting an imminent Wolves-Bulls trade for about 10 years now). He went to school for 1 year in Chicago after having grown up in South Carolina. I’m a Wolves fan who hopes that they can get several first round picks for KG. In my dream deal, however, McHale gets traded, and KG stays.

15

And I can’t get used to “New Orleans Hornets”. I don’t think we even have hornets down here. It kills me that Utah has horded our true team name.

On that note, I would love for Thornton to drop to us, but if he is gone, I would prefer Nick Young over Thaddeus, whom the Bees are reportedly interested in.

16

What are the odds that someone, barring injuries, other than Durant or Oden will go down in history as the greatest player in this draft?

15%?

If so, my bet is it would be Corey Brewer.

17

Interesting. If we take out the top two picks (and the teams that would take them), I like your Corey Brewer pick. Good defender, tall and pretty strong, has a good shot, too.

Nick Young intrigues me. Arron Afalo also does.

18

Al Horford at number 3? Finally, the Hawks got a pick right!

19

Anyone else shocked at how cheap the number 5 pick was to get?

Anyone else watching?

20

I don’t feel too terribly bad about the Allen deal from the C’s side… I would have preferred someone who doesn’t have a very similar skill set to Pierce, but we managed to get rid of Wally’s contract while still keeping Ratliff’s. Assuming that you want to keep Pierce - and ownership was committed to keeping Pierce if at all possible - you HAVE to get more immediate talent back than the pick will give you. Allen has, what, three years left on his current contract? That’s just about right, I think - gives them a multi-year window to compete with Pierce/Allen, and doesn’t cripple them well into the next decade if it falls apart for some reason. If they look strong but one piece from going ‘over the top’ near the deadline this year, they can trade Gerald Green and Ratliff’s contract for a helpful vet; if something goes wrong this year, they can let Ratliff just expire and use the money to help in re-signing Al.

From the C’s point of view, you’d rather have a Kirilenko or Marion type… but this certainly isn’t the worst deal in the entire world. The #5 has a LOT more value to a team like Seattle (where they’re going to be building around Durant anyways) than it does to a team like the C’s (where they would likely have plenty of other problems by the time that pick was ready to contribute to a championship-level team, even with a relatively more ready pick like Green). With the state of the East, I have NO problem with them making a stab at it over the next couple of years.