NC-09 Special

If it’s not called by 10, I’ma count that as a win, because it means the race is close in a district that used to be red, which mildly signals that the Dem surge is maintaining.

Here’s CNN’s tracker: North Carolina 9th Congressional District election results

They’ve already called NC-3 for the Republican (this was to replace long time Rep Walter Jones who died in February). NC-3 is a heavily Red District so the result was not really in question.

I’m ecstatic. Kornaki on MSNBC just ran through McCready’s performance today v. 2018, and he’s exceeding 2018 by 2-3% in every district. With 20% in, McCready is ahead, 54% - Bishop 45%.

Looking good for McCready!!!

They just said that McCready improved his performance by 2.7% in the early voting. It’s all down to election day turnout at this point. Heard it was heavy turnout for this election. This usually favors Dems, but who knows?

Currently 52% McCready to 47% Bishop with 24% of votes counted.

NC Board of Elections

Looks like Union County (just to the east of Charlotte-Mecklenberg Co) is going 60% to Bishop which is propping him up by about 10k votes with 65% reporting. Mecklenberg is a much larger population and, with only 1% reporting, has a heavy McReady lean so far.

With 88 of 210 precincts reporting:

Dan McCready (D) 59,013 (49.77%)
Dan Bishop ® 58,884 (49.66%)

I don’t know enough about the demographics/leanings in the various precincts, nor which precincts are in as of this report … but in my experience, larger precincts tend to be more urban, lean more Democratic, and take longer to report. So this is looking very interesting indeed thus far, based upon … well, nothing other than what’s noted in this thread.

Union County is heavily GOP and the second largest county in NC-09 after Mecklenburg County which is heavily D. NYT is reporting 82% of the vote in for Union and 14% of the vote in for Mecklenburg. Mecklenburg comprises part of Charlotte where they also had municipal elections today. This means turnout is probably higher there. All of this is enough to make it appear the GOP candidate could be in trouble.

I’m going with “before 9:00 a.m., if it’s been called for McCready by 8:30.” Also taking the Daily Double on the same tweet(s) explaining how he wasn’t on the ballot and yesterday’s in-person rally … uh, didn’t really count, for some reason. :dubious:

Thanks for the info/analysis! Like some comedian or another said, “I ain’t superstitious, but I’m a little stitious, so … fingers crossed.”

Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren’t the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year’s election?

Ok, Union Co is at 100% reporting with about a 12,500 advantage for Bishop giving him a total lead of ~2500.

Meanwhile, McReady has a 7500 vote lead in Mecklenberg Co with 54% reporting. If that ratio continues in Mecklenberg, McReady should catch up pretty quickly.

They had to have primary elections earlier in the Spring and Summer, but still this ain’t Parliamentary elections where you can vote to hold a general election and get things wrapped up in 6 weeks.

There was some dickering/dithering/posturing, and I think there was a pretty thorough State Police investigation (source: uh, I think I remember reading that somewhere back then, maybe? <shrug>), and the NC State Board of Elections held hearings in mid-February. Unanimous NCSBoE vote to call for a fresh election happened later that week … but that meant a fresh primary (happened in May), and a mandatory post-primary campaign period, IIRC.

I pulled some of that from this Wikipedia, which will surely be changing in the hours to come: 2019 North Carolina's 9th congressional district special election - Wikipedia

Some states have E-days scheduled every three months. So getting through the trial, then the primary and giving enough time for campaigning it makes sense.

Yikes, McReady losing his lead in Mecklenberg as more precincts are reporting. This could be bad news…

Ah, well. It was always a long shot. McCready still did very well. It would have been nice to get this one, though.

Called for Bishop.
Some of the later reporting precincts in Mecklenberg Co must have been pretty small. The vote totals didn’t jump much from 54% to 76% reporting.

CNN doesn’t want to call it for Bishop. I wonder how long they’ll cling to false hope.

never mind, I’ll save my celebrating for elsewhere