NC 2017 Special Elections Discussion Thread

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

We’ve tossed this around a bit before on the board, but I figured it’d be good to have a thread specifically for this issue. Some background:

Twenty-eight special elections have been scheduled in the North Carolina General Assembly for 2017. The primary election will be held sometime in late August or early September. The general election will be held in early November.

The special elections have been called in response to a federal court order that ruled 28 state legislative districts unconstitutional because of racial gerrymandering. The court ruled that these districts were drawn in such a way that misrepresented the racial groups living in the districts. Historically, racial gerrymandering has reduced the impact of minority voters. More special elections may be added depending on where the new district lines are redrawn in the 28 affected districts.

Note: The U.S. Supreme Court issued an order on January 10, 2017, that would cancel the 2017 special elections in North Carolina. The change would move elections under new maps to the regularly scheduled 2018 elections.

[side-question: I removed bracketed footnote numbers from the quote. Is that copacetic quoting protocol? Also, can you say that three times fast?]

Later in the ballotopedia article, minority leader Dan Blue says,

@Dan Blue

I’m confident, and most of the lawyers who practice in this area [of law] …are confident that the [U.S.] Supreme Court, when they look at the case, because it has been appealed up there, will uphold the findings of the federal court that this is unconstitutional. The case law says they have no choice.

So, to kick things off, how appropriate is Blue’s confidence? This blog post seems to suggest that it’s misplaced, but I’ll be honest, I’m having some trouble understanding the reasoning; my dilettante legal knowledge is nowhere near enough for me to fully grasp, let alone evaluate, the reasons given.

What do the smart folks here–as well as the inevitable dipsticks–think?

[Bricker]

@Left_Hand_of_Dorkness

So, to kick things off, how appropriate is Blue’s confidence?

There are two questions:

(1) Is the districting plan unconstitutional?
(2) If it is, what’s the appropriate remedy?

In other words, even if the districting plan is constitutionally infirm, the appropriate remedy may not be a special election. The leading case I’m aware of is Shaw v. Reno. It seems to stand for the proposition that the state must redistrict for the next election; I can’t recall any Shaw progeny cases that ordered a special election.

This is not my area of expertise, and I haven’t done much reading on it, so I can’t really opine (yet) one point (1). But my general sense is that the order for a special election was not well grounded in precedent. So Blue may be right: the Court may decide the districts as drawn now are unconstitutional. But the Court may still vacate the order requiring a special election.

[Falchion]

@Left_Hand_of_Dorkness

So, to kick things off, how appropriate is Blue’s confidence? This blog post seems to suggest that it’s misplaced, but I’ll be honest, I’m having some trouble understanding the reasoning; my dilettante legal knowledge is nowhere near enough for me to fully grasp, let alone evaluate, the reasons given.

If I understand Hasen’s argument, it’s that the Court isn’t going to decide on the Covington case until it decides the Virginia case and the other NC case. And that, once it gets around to doing that, it’s going to be too late for a special election before the 2018 election. (Hansen suggests that once the other NC case gets decided – presumably by June 2017 – the Court will send the Covington case back to be reconsidered in light of whatever it says in the first case. This is a process known as “GVR” and is reasonably likely.)

The case was considered at the March 31, 2017 conference. See here. So, even assuming that the challengers win, it’s going to be highly unlikely that you get a decision in time for an November 2017 election. (Unless its a summary disposition).

[tim314]

I briefly read this as “NC-17 Special Elections thread”, and thought these elections must be a whole different kind of “special”.

(Context for non-Americans: NC-17 is the rating given to “adult” movies.)

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@tim314

I briefly read this as “NC-17 Special Elections thread”, and thought these elections must be a whole different kind of “special”.

(Context for non-Americans: NC-17 is the rating given to “adult” movies.)

Dude, I tried to teach the election last year. 2016 was the NC-17 election.

(I’m reading y’all’s comments right now, Bricker and Falchion, and appreciate your insight–don’t have much of my own to offer for now, but will come back to the thread as there are updates.)

[boffking]

The voting age is 18. Doesn’t that mean every election is NC-17?

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

Update: The Supreme Court won’t hear the voter law case, meaning the anti-black laws passed in 2013 are gone. However, as I understand it, this doesn’t affect whether the special election will happen, and I’m having trouble finding an update on that issue. Does anyone know?

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

Update: Supreme Court agrees districts are gerrymandered AF, but orders lower court to re-examine the special elections in 2017.

The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a request from state lawmakers to review a lower court’s ruling that struck down the 2011 state legislative districts, but sent the case back for reconsideration of whether elections should be held in 2017 as the lower court ordered.
…
The Supreme Court order, issued Monday morning, was critical of how the three-judge panel came to its decision to call for new maps and special elections.

The order said the judges considered “inequities” caused by the gerrymandered maps and the great costs of ordering special elections “in only the most cursory fashion.”

“(T)he court simply announced that ‘(w)hile special elections have costs,’ those unspecified costs ‘pale in comparison’ to the prospect that citizens will be ‘represented by legislators elected pursuant to a racial gerrymander,’” the order states. “That minimal reasoning would appear to justify a special election in every racial-gerrymandering case – a result clearly at odds with our demand for careful case-specific analysis. For that reason, we cannot have confidence that the court adequately grappled with the interests on both sides of the remedial question before us.”

I’m glad they see that the gerrymandering happened, but it enrages me that they’re letting the GOP profit from it anyway, because it’d be too haaaaaard to have a fair election.

I remember in high school when I got after school detention, and I complained that having it on a particular day would mean I couldn’t participate in a particular extra-curricular activity, and the assistant principal told me I shoulda thought of that before skipping school.

I wish the Supreme Court would show similar tough love to our corrupt state GOP. These fools at the GOP are going to continue to run out the clock and continue to stay in power as long as the courts let them. They’ll drag their heels and then say they don’t have time to do things the right way.

Infuriating.

[RTFirefly]

@Left_Hand_of_Dorkness

These fools at the GOP are going to continue to run out the clock and continue to stay in power as long as the courts let them. They’ll drag their heels and then say they don’t have time to do things the right way.

Infuriating.

Kinda like the 2000 recount all over again.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

William Barber calls on state legislature to cease legislating:

Rev. William Barber, president of the N.C. NAACP, on Tuesday called on the N.C. General Assembly to “cease and desist” all legislative action until the state’s election maps have been redrawn.
…
Gov. Roy Cooper, who has called for special elections before the next legislative session, tried to force legislators to draw new maps in a special session, but Republican lawmakers refused and called it a political stunt. The governor and others have said the gerrymandered maps have created rigged elections.

“The all-white, extremist caucus that has hijacked the Republican Party has ignored the governor’s call of a special session,” Barber said at the news conference outside the Legislative Building. “Currently, we have an unconstitutionally constituted, illegal body leading our state legislature.”

Obviously they won’t do this, but I really hope courts pay attention. Yesterday afternoon the Republican NCGA sent a whiny note back to the judge saying it’d be too haaaaaaaard to set up non-racist districts in time for a November special election. The court is trying to decide whether to expedite this case, and the NCGA thinks they shouldn’t, because expediting it would just encourage calls for a 2017 special election, and again, haaaaaaard.

Barber is 100% in the right here. They’re in power illegitimately, and the NCGA should be put in time-out until there’s a new map.

Ideally their decisions should be rendered void until after a new election, but I know that won’t happen.