Assume 3-4-5 have 1 loss, Auburn only losing to #2 Alabama.
It’s by committee, but what do you imagine would happen. Would they go with straight 1-2-3-4 or move Oregon over Auburn into the 4 as they won their conference and Auburn did not.
Will the stadiums be sold out? This year, it looks like:
Round 1: Rose or Sugar
Round 2: Cotton
In 2 weeks, Nebraska fans would have to make two trips (with air, hotel, car, tickets) to Pasadena and then Dallas. During the holidays.
What’s with the ranking of Nebraska at number 1? Is Bo Pelini going to avoid pissing his pants this year?
As for your question, my guess is that the committee will take into account timing of loss, quality of loss, quality of wins, margin of victory/loss, strength of schedule, etc. Obviously winning a conference versus not even playing for a conference championship would be a factor. Without knowing any of those things then no one can give a very good guess. You would have to think a good win in a Pac 12 championship game against a quality opponent might cause Oregon to jump Auburn.
As long as the participants are bigger powers, the stadiums will likely be sell-outs despite fans having to travel twice.
I don’t think that statement is necessarily true. Tickets and travel are expensive, and planning time is short especially around the holidays. SEC teams travel well, usually because bowl games are relatively close to them. Northern and western teams teams fans are at disadvantage. Do you take a chance on buying tix and arranging travel to the first round game, or wait and try for the second round game? The NCAA hoops tournament is kind of a similar guessing game, but there are at least 4 team schools trying to get tickets for each games at each venue, while in football there will only be two schools for each venue.
I mean specifically for this first year and specifically if it is major programs (which almost all have big alumni bases). I think if we’re talking about teams from the grouping of Florida State, Oregon, Auburn, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, UCLA, and a few others then we will be looking at three sold out games for this year. If it’s Baylor versus Duke, then sure I don’t think that would be a sell-out.
I like the idea of the upcoming playoff system. I think four teams is exactly the right number, even though I have absolutely no doubt that the number will climb to at least 8 (workable, sorta) or even 16 (too many - you really think the 10th-16th team in the nation has a legitimate claim to be No. 1?). We will have to see how the attendance might play out for both rounds, seeing as how you’re basically asking the fans to travel to two bowl games in consecutive weeks.
What I find humorous, though, is this entire blown-up BCS system and now the playoffs were brought about by people complaining about the polls. “Voters shouldn’t decide who’s the number one team! Let 'em fight it out on the field! Human polls are inherently unfair!” So who’s deciding which four teams get selected for the playoffs?
Yep. Humans. A committee, rather than a reporters’ or coaches’ poll, but still people making a decision and taking a vote to choose some teams and exclude others. I personally don’t have a problem (I didn’t think the poll system was so terrible), but I think it’s funny all the squalling and bitching about the old poll system has landed us close to where we already were before.
I suspect that the championship game is hoped to eventually become similar to the Super Bowl, with most of the tickets being bought by corporate sponsors, and only a few available to fans of whatever teams happen to be playing.
For the most part, the human polls are pretty close to correct. The top 5 or so teams are usually the best, and they do a good job of lining up #1 and #2. There’s a few controversies here and there, but imagine how hard it is to do a poll every week “Should this team be ranked #14 or #18?”
If they lost to a team with a losing record, late in the season, and looked unimpressive in the Pac-12 championship, then I’m sure Auburn would get the 4th spot.
If Oregon lost to a 2-loss Stanford (who also had quality losses) and otherwise looked impressive, then they might slide ahead of a one-loss Auburn.
I think this is likely - and if it gets blown up to 8 teams, they’ll probably switch the first round to be hosted at the higher seeded teams’ stadiums.
I think that you go to 8 teams with the first round being the Rose, Fiesta, Sugar and Orange Bowl. That way those bowls regain the pre-eminance they once did and actually become relevant again.
I really doubt the first round of playoff games is going to be a slam dunk sell out. College football is still a regional sport and very few schools have a national fan base. I think we will see more half empty stadiums or tickets given away similar to many conference championship games.
We’re so weird in this country sometimes. When you think hard about it, a committee is borderline insanity. I’ve always thought that all the Division 1 schools should have a balloting process instead. It’s their tournament, let them pick the four.
