From Midgam poll on March 4th:
Who is most suited to serve as Prime Minister?
47% Netanyahu, 28% Herzog, 21% Don’t know, 4% Both are equally suited
That should not be considered as an option. From 2012:
I’m a bit confused about the whole sunset clause.
Does the clause actually say something like:
“If Iran fully complies with the terms of this agreement, then in 2025 Iran is completely free to pursue any course of nuclear research, construction, etc. it chooses, whereas the United States is prohibited from raising any objection or taking any action to block or otherwise interfere with those choices.”
Because if it doesn’t explicitly grant permission for Iran to do whatever it wants post-agreement, and explicitly commit the United States to fully acquiescing to that, then sunset clause-based objections are exceedingly hollow.
How is it possible to take the objection seriously?
Hang on, war with Iran would leave “hundreds” of Americans dead? Who’s their source on that, Bill Kristol?
Did you know that “could” and “would” are different words?
Cite available on request.
Regards,
Shodan
I agree with you 100% and while I don’t want to speak for Allessan, I think the major problem is that so many Israelis were disillusioned by certain events that we think of differently.
One of the things that is largely ignored in the West is just how even the left-wing peaceniks in Israel supported both Cast Lead and the recent Gaza War. AFAIK, every Jewish MK supported them, including members of Meretz.
The founder of the “Peace Now” movement from the 80s, Amos Oz was now one of fervent supporters and if anything is to the right of Bibi.
Virtually all American Jewish friends of mine constantly like to insist how Bibi only speaks for a small number of Israelis and in many ways that’s true, but they’re ignoring the reality that for the most part, what opposition to both those wars exists in Israel exists mainly amongst people who thought Bibi was too soft.
The reason for this among the Amos Ozes of Israel is because frankly there core claim for decades was that they could exchange “land for peace” and from their (flawed) perspective, Ariel Sharon gave back Gaza and the situation didn’t get better but instead got worse.
That’s also of course there view increasingly of the creation of the PA and the 2000 peace talks that almost destroyed the Labor party.
The point is, it’s ridiculous to think that Israel can bomb Iran and not expect a response. The idea that Iran is already doing everything it can against Israel is nonsensical.
Any bombing of Iran is going to require a response from Iran. Even if the mullahs wanted to just sit there and take it, they wouldn’t be able to. They’d have to strike back at Israel. And there’s no way Iran would treat an Israeli attack as only an Israeli attack, they’d believe that the United States encouraged/ordered the attack. There’s no way the US could plausibly stand there and claim that the Israeli attack took us by surprise.
If Bibi wants to bomb Iran, and Obama doesn’t want him to bomb Iran, we can warn the Iranians if we believe that the attack is about to happen. We could even shoot down Israeli bombers, if we really thought bombing Iran was a bad idea. If Israeli bombers hit Iran it will be with the cooperation of the US military, even if that cooperation merely consists of standing aside and watching it happen and keeping it a secret from them.
But in reality, we know this, Israel knows this, and Iran knows this. There is no way Israel can bomb Iran independently of the United States, such that the United States can escape the blame. So either we bomb Iran ourselves, or we stop the Israelis cold if they try.
But we’re not going to bomb Iran, even if they build a nuclear weapon. We aren’t bombing Pakistan are we?
Bombing is off the table. Bombing is a fantasy. Bombing Iran won’t stop their nuclear program, it will intensify their nuclear program.
So now what? Either Iran agrees to halt its nuclear program in return for lifting the sanctions, or they don’t. Adding a bunch of new conditions to the negotiations means they fail. But if the negotiations fail, then Iran starts up the nuke factory again. And if negotiations fail because the United States goes hawkish, then Russia and China and Europe drop their sanctions. That’s what’s so silly about this, because we can’t force Iran to give up its nuclear program, we can only convince them that it’s more trouble than it’s worth. Iran doesn’t sell oil to the United States, it sells oil to Europe. If we can’t convince the Europeans and Russians and Chinese to continue sanctions, then it doesn’t matter that American sanctions are even tighter than before, because we already have almost no trade with Iran.
This is what people can’t seem to understand. If we want to continue sanctions against Iran we need to convince CHINA to keep sanctions. So why didn’t Bibi go to China to make a speech there? The answer is obvious, they wouldn’t listen to him. So what’s the point of the speech to America then?
A couple of quibbles -
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Amos Oz is currently stumping for Meretz, so I don’t think he’s gone to the right of Bibi just yet. You should check your sources.
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I’d argue with you about your “flawed” comment, but I doubt we’d reach any agreement on that.
But other than that, you’ve pretty much got it. As far as most Israelis are concerned, the Oslo Agreement led to the suicide bombings, the withdrawal from Lebanon led to rockets at Haifa, the withdrawal from Gaza led to rockets at Tel Aviv, and the whole neighborhood is going to hell. You may not see it that way, but then, you won’t be voting in two weeks.
Even me - I’m a centrist, not a leftist. My problem with Bibi isn’t so much his ideology as the fact that I think he’s an empty suit who mistakes pretty speeches for action, a moral coward who never met a hard decision he couldn’t shirk. He’ll never bomb a reactor, or make peace with the Palestinians, or rescue hostages a thousand miles away, or dismantle settlements, or do anything else that needs to be done. My country deserves a better leader. Not more liberal, not more conservative, just… better.
Do you see any pol in Israel who could be that guy?
No politician in any country is that guy. 
Do Israelis feel more secure under Netanyahu than they were 10 years ago? 
I didn’t mean to imply that Oz was a supporter of Bibi. I meant he was a strong supporter of Protective Edge and Cast Lead as was Meretz and the other “peace” parties.
I don’t think you can underestimate the way “withdrawal” from Gaza under Sharon led not to more security but more attacks and how the failure of Camp David in 2004 effected the Israelis. Not of course that I agree with them.
The National Interest has a good piece of commentary that addresses–in my view, conclusively–the sunset clause issue. The writer is Richard Nephew, a former member of the US negotiating team with Iran and Director for Iran at the National Security Council. A few highlights:
Excellent read, thanks for sharing.
It sounds like the hatred of the treaty in the West, then, is not for what Iran could do, but for what it would constrain the “bomb Iran” faction from doing.
I’m of the opinion that if you keep on firing politicians, eventually you’ll reach someone qualified.
Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan says that Netanyahu made false claims about Iran in his speech.
What’s that definition of insanity again? 
If you can’t remember by now, it would be crazy to tell you again.