I came across this book at the store today, and it made me think of past news stories regarding similar topics.
Basically, what I got from this book in initial flip-through is that, during the latter half of the 1990’s, agents of bin Laden purchased about 20 Russian suitcase nukes from Chechen Mafia members. All he has to do now, according to the plan the book puts forth, is to get the nukes into the U.S. and simultaneously detonate them in about fifteen to twenty major U.S. locations at some significant date.
Seems to me that the book pretty much says there’s nothing we can do to stop this (considering its emphasis on stuff like lax port security), and weaves a grim scenario of the near collapse of the nation, and of Western civilization as we know it.
Anyone read this book, or know anything about the author? Whaddya think - shall we move to Norway or somethin’?
I’m afraid I don’t remember, but the book does have a quote that sorta scoffs at this argument. I think part of it is just having the opportunity to get the nukes into the States and in place, but as I said, I don’t recall entirely.
Don’t want to entirely hijack this, but would Western civilizaiton really be ended if 20 of the largest US cities were nuked? We are not the be all and end all.
I do understand your concern and think we would have heard about this before.
According to the book, it would come pretty darn close, what with the global economic depression following such an event. That’s what I was referring to, not in any sort of cultural sense. Sorry for the confusion.
Sorry, but I’ve got friends who work in the nuclear industry (not making things which don’t exist, if you know what I mean ), and I’ve never heard them relate any tales of stolen suitcase nukes getting into the hands of the Russian mafia. They have been to Russia and inspected various sites where nuclear weapons and materials are stored and have admitted that security is a bit lax, with items like spent fuel rods being protected by little more than a rusty padlock, but any attempts at theft have ended badly for the thieves (Seems they don’t quite understand what they’ve got, and don’t bother with taking the necessary precautions. Radiation sickness is a pretty horrible way to die.)
A few years ago, the Discovery Channel aired a program where undercover reporters tried to buy nuclear material on the black market in Russia. They never found anything that was “hot” enough to be considered dangerous, much less lethal or weapons grade material.
I’ve heard rumors that the Taliban had enough radioactive strontium (or cesium, don’t remember which) stored in a university basement in Afghanistan that were one to walk in there without protective gear they’d recieve a lethal dose of radiation in a short period of time, but I’ve not seen any major news reports confirming that.
Finally, if Osama’s managed to get his grubby claws on weapons grade material, I’d be more inclined to suspect rogue elements within the Pakistani scientific community or Iran than I would Russian blackmarketeers. Even the mafia has some scruples.
I think it is inevitable that, sooner or later, some terrorist will get ahold of a nuclear weapon, and that it will be used against a major city… certainly in the U.S. if al-Qada gets one.
This chilling, horrible concept has been around since Ian Fleming wrote THUNDERBALL – nuclear blackmail by a terrorist/extortionist organization. It was entertaining then, not so much now.
Well, this is assuming that the “Chechen Mafia” has, or ever had, 20 “Russian suitcase nukes.” There are several problems with this theory. Firstly, no one ever proved that “Russian suitcase nukes” ever existed, at least on any demonstratably large scale. I have a feeling that a “suitcase nuke” would probably require a truck to move. The Russians certainly denied that they exist, much less are out of their control in that number range - and they have good cause to know this, because they happen to be in a rather bitter civil war with the Chechens right now. These same Chechens who allegedly sold 20 alleged suitcase nukes are in a desperate battle against overwhelming Russian force, where vast swaths of their state has been virtually wiped off the map, and have resorted to rather intricate and well planned acts of terrorism within the Russian nation itself. One would logically assume that, having 20 easily mobile nuclear weapons, they would have, you know, used them by this point. They certainly don’t have a lot of sympathy for Osama, and certainly not enough to sell him 20 suitcase nukes while engaged in such a bitter civil war. There are certainly no ultra-rich “Chechen Mafia” hideaways that would account for the sudden influx of what surely must be a very large sum of money.
Russia itself has more to fear about losing one of its nukes than America does. To say that the Chechens, of all people, would sell nukes, is rather absurd to me. I can understand some of the other CA countries, or a rogue Russian element, but they would be selling warheads, and they certainly wouldn’t be doing it if they were Chechen.
And somehow, the author of this book knows about this vast, highly unlikely conspiracy, yet American and Russian intelligence seems rather lax about the possibility. The author does not go into detail about how he gathered this tidbit of information, does he? Certainly, he must have an insider at high levels in either Al Qaeda or the “Chechen Mafia.” Or maybe within the Russian or US intelligence services who are covering up this data! Oh, of course!
Why the obsession with significant dates? The simultaneous detonation of 20 nuclear weapons would not be of enough impact? 9/11 was not on a “significant date.” The terrorists seem not to care much about significant dates - in fact, they would avoid them, since security would be heightened. The addition of this detail makes it seem even less likely to be true. I’m not even sure if they would simultaneously detonate them. Their objective, after all, is terror. They would level one city, then sit back and laugh as everyone evacuates… then level the next.
If, after all, they have nuclear devices that can do more than blow up a city block in a suitcase (highly unlikely), they don’t need to be picky on exactly where they do it.
There is also little we could do should a vast alien invasion armada show up in orbit, but the odds, I think, are fairly unlikely.
While Europe would be greatly saddened, I’m sure, I highly doubt that their civilization would collapse. America may be in a different state, but it would hardly be dead. Should something on this scale happen, I’m almost certain that Muslim civilization would be in equally dire straits.
Not if you think Chechens have suitcase nukes. Wouldn’t want to be in the fallout from Sankt Peterburg.
Why do you believe it’s inevitable that terrorists will obtain nuclear weapons? I’d agree the danger is there, but I’d say the risk is very low. I’m far more concerned about the possibility of a dirty bomb attack.
I think the chance that Al-Quida already has nukes is close to zero. If you have nukes and are prepared to use them, why mess about flying planes into buildings?
His point is that that number isn’t necessarily significant to the terrorists. Sure, their ops probably knew what it meant, and that it had significance to us, but if they’d really wanted to go for symbolism, why not pick a date that’s important to THEM, like the day of the start of the first Crusades or something, some date of a crime against Islam by the West? The whole “emergency date” thing is kinda tenous as something that would strike more fear in our hearts anyway.
Given what response the Russians are giving to Chechen insurgency, I’m not sure how it could become significantly worst…
Anyway, each time there’s a thread on these nuclear suitcases, the story becomes worst. At the beginning, it was “a russian official stated that the Soviet Union had nuclear suitcase and some of them then are unaccounted for” and it went all the steps to the current “OBL got his hands on the nuclear suitcases and hided them in US cities, ready to detonate”.
By the way, a strandart response to these claims I read many times about the “suitcases” is that they wouldn’t be operable anymore, assuming that they actually went missing, because they could only have a limited life expectancy, and anyway couldn’t be detonated by anybody getting his hands on them, but only by people specifically trained to operate them.
Have to go along with the consensus here…if ObL had ‘suitcase nukes’ he would have used them already. If he had 20 of them then I think he’d spread the wealth…America wouldn’t be the only country with smoking holes where its cities once were. ObL’s war is with Western Civilization, not just America. I know Europe has tried to look meek and peace-able, and been as appoligetic as it could be…but if ObL gets his hands on THAT many nukes, I think the Europeans would be in for a bit of an eye opener too.
One thing I have to disagree with though from some of the people in the thread…that is if America goes tits up Europe and the rest of the world will somehow magically ride it out. THats fantasy. The US is the major trading partner of the world…if we go down completely there will be a world wide economic crash that will make the great depression look like the boom time in the 90’s. Markets will crash all over the world, from Tokyo to London. It might not be the end of Western Civilization, but it will be a pretty dark time for a LONG time to come. Couple that with my theory that London, Paris, Berlin, etc etc will ALSO be smoking ruins if ObL gets his hands on 20 nukes and you are talking world wide collapse. Remember he could nuke several of Europes capitals and still have enough joy to do most of the US’s major cities (New York, Chicago, Washington DC, LA, Boston, Atlanta, Huston, etc etc).
Good thing this is all fantasy, huh? BTW, anyone have any idea what explosive power a ‘suitcase’ or backpack nuke even has? It can’t be THAT much…I doubt you could even get the explosive power of one of the bombs we dropped on Japan in the size of a suitcase or backpack.
As a WAG, I’d say it’d probably be as powerful as a Davy Crockett. IIRC, someone here posted figures which showed that the damage done by the planes on 9/11 was greater than that which would have been done had they used even a nuke the size of the one dropped on Hiroshima.
), and I’ve never heard them relate any tales of stolen suitcase nukes getting into the hands of the Russian mafia. They have been to Russia and inspected various sites where nuclear weapons and materials are stored and have admitted that security is a bit lax, with items like spent fuel rods being protected by little more than a rusty padlock, but any attempts at theft have ended badly for the thieves (Seems they don’t quite understand what they’ve got, and don’t bother with taking the necessary precautions. Radiation sickness is a pretty horrible way to die.)
BTW, anyone have any idea what explosive power a ‘suitcase’ or backpack nuke even has? It can’t be THAT much…I doubt you could even get the explosive power of one of the bombs we dropped on Japan in the size of a suitcase or backpack.