I was leafing through an old National Geographic yesterday – and by “old” I mean 57 years old. The thread title is also the title of an article in the magazine, circa 1954.
One of the people interviewed for the article was Dr. Harold S. Osborne*, “Chief Engineer of the American Telephone and Telegraph Company”. While talking about the future of communications, Dr. Osborne was eerily accurate regarding the cell phone boom, except for a couple of…questionable predictions:
"…whenever a baby is born anywhere in the world, he is given a number which will be his telephone number for life. As soon as he can talk, he is given a watchlike device with 10 little buttons on one side and a screen on the other.
“Thus equipped, at any time when he wishes to talk to anyone in the world, he will pull out the device and punch on the keys the number of his friend. Then, turning the device over, he will hear the voice of his friend and see his face on the screen, in color and in three dimentions. If he does not see him and hear him, he will know that the friend is dead.”
*No mention as to if he viewed Spider-Man as an enemy or not.
The quote in #5 looks odd: “… but more likely the exchange is not attentive.” Back 110 years ago, “the exchange” was a person – usually a woman – who connected you with the party that you wanted to talk to. Now that exchanges are fully automated – and have been for many decades – the only reason why they would be “not attentive” is if some software or hardware had crashed. How things have changed!
A portable telephone number for life is an idea that has happened yet but it is a pretty good idea. The technology exists to make that happen now but nobody has done it as far as I know. It wouldn’t be super-hard to implement because it would be basically like call forwarding to any device you buy in the future and could be updated with new devices. I predict we will see something like that eventually.
Forget you ever heard that. Meet me on the worldwide list of billionaires 10 years from now.
The woman is an operator. The exchange is the place where the operator works. (And where all the subscriber lines for the neighborhood come together. The word being taken from telegraph exchanges.)
Digital technology has ruined the romance of the telephone system. I say we all go back to strowger switches and MF signaling. Also smallpox.
Yes, but … if it could be done, the numbers probably would not be in Zone 1 (North America). There wouldn’t be enough room there, and you need room for people who move between continents.
Given that there will be 7 billion people in the world this year, and given a system using the digits 0 through 9, you need to allow for at least 100 billion people, i.e., an 11-digit number.
You are just the kind of hard numbers, detail oriented person I need for this venture. It wouldn’t have to replace every existing number, it could just be a universal one for life that you could update at will online and forward your calls wherever you want with calendars and times. Moving and travelling just became less of a hassle.
Permanent phone numbers are fine as long as you’re allowed to get a separate number that’s not going to be available to anyone you give a phone number to the rest of your life. A public permanent voice mail number would be fine, but I definitely would want the main cell phone I carry to have a private number which I can guard the dissemination of and change if needed.
This reminds me of the potentially misleading cell phone service advertisement that they cover 9X% of Americans. Well, that’s nice, but that means if you’re driving through the middle of nowhere where no one lives, it’s not much of a guarantee of service, is it? And what if you’re visiting one of those couple percent of Americans who aren’t covered?
It’s also a standard trope for horror movies to have to take place in the middle of nowhere these days, because they have to be somewhere there’s no cell phone service for the plot to not have an easy way out.
Also, I love the domain name: abong.com. It’s short for A Bookcase Of National Geographics. Apparently, when you want to enjoy a National Geographic, you should search for abong.
(Also, in June, they titled an article “Sierra High Trip”, but I’m too gentlemanly to sink to a drug joke.)
And within Thailand, they’ve only become portable within the past month or so, after much bitching from the public. Thailand’s really behind in telecommunications, due to industry corruption. We’ve yet to get 3G, as the big players are holding out for more government concession money. There is now 3G available even on Mount Everest! I kid you not. Maybe Cambodia too. And Hong Kong is poised to introduce 4G. But we’re stuck with 2G.
The thing I think is silly is the idea that we’d have one device for life. How would that work in a capitalistic economy? And, of course, this was before the computer boom, so I guess he didn’t anticipate how often the technology would improve.
Also, the whole idea of not answering meaning you are dead implied to me that, even if the person didn’t want to accept the call, you’d still see a projection of them, so you’d know they were alive. When they die, their phones are shut off.
I also love how everyone predicted video phones, and did not anticipate that we might not like having to look our absolute best at all times. But at least this guy sorta predicted the 3D cell phones in Japan that inspired the 3DS.