Although the risk of death during the Troubles in NI was probably overstated abroad and a media effect likely led people to believe there was a significant risk of death in the Troubles I have my doubts about that quoted statistic. The Troubles varied in risk by time/place. In 1972, the single worst year 479 people were murdered in NI (I don’t have the specific data for Belfast City) amongst a population of about 1.5 million people. LA’s population is over twice that. In order for that statistic to be even roughly correct around 10,000 people would have to have been murdered in the same year. Does anyone have the murder stats for LA in that year? I know the quoted text mentions the 1980s, when the Troubles had largely died down by comparison. In 1988, 104 people were murdered in the Troubles, about 2000 people would have to have been murdered in that year in LA for the quoted stat to be correct.
I’ve lived in New Orleans my whole life and live here currently. Uptown/university area to be exact. I’ve lived uptown, Irish channel and Broadmoor. The worst crime I’ve suffered (so far, thankfully) is that my unlocked bike was stolen. If you know your way around and avoid certain areas and aren’t someone involved in the drug trade, you can probably stay fairly safe. I would say about 90 percent of the murders here involve bad drug deals or fights among drug dealers. Which is still unfortunate, but as long as you avoid certain risky behaviors, you can stay fairly safe. (knock on wood).
Oh, and thanks again for being here Mississipienne.
Vast majority of people are murdered by someone they know, not a random person. So if you don’t know violent people you are mostly OK.
My suspicion is be that Cape Town’s high murder rate is driven by the gang-related violence on the Cape Flats, and that in the “good areas” of CT you are just as (if not more) safe than the “good areas” of Jo’burg. (Not that there isn’t gang-related violence in Jo’burg, of course, but CT has it particularly virulently.) Certainly Jo’burg seems to have a greater density of electric fences and gated suburbs - obviously middle-class Johannesburgers feel less safe than middle-class Capetonians.
Sadly for this advice, the vast majority of murders are done by first time murderers. So you don’t know who to avoid.
The reason that most murderers are first-time murderers is that murderers typically are caught (murder has a very high clearance rate) and given long prison sentences, reducing their opportunities for future murders.
But the majority of murderers (and violent criminals more generally) have fairly long records of previous felonies–see here for example (US DOJ statistics). 40% of murder arrestees have 10 or more previous arrests; 83% have at least one. Murder is not usually committed by normal people.
So Bijou Drains’ advice to stay away from violent felons is actually quite good.