New Usama Tape: real, important, he's alive?!

Wait, I’m no fan of the Bush Administration, but are people here seriously suggesting that someone at the White House read the original CNN article, called them in a huff, and that CNN, as a result, pulled the offending passages from their article? Or is the argument that the influence was indirect? Because it’s certainly reading like someone thinks that Bush and/or his people are actually putting pressure on them.

If they are, I’d love for proof to spread to every house in this nation, but I just don’t think they’re that stupid…

I don’t think they’re that smart, but I hold no illusion that they wouldn’t do such things if they could and thought of it in time.

OK, I have a guess what happened with the translation:

There’s this paragraph in this AP story, “The speaker also called on Muslims to rise up and “break free from the slavery of these tyrannic and apostate regimes, which is enslaved by America,” singling out Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.”

Perhaps in the first hasty translation, Iraq was erroneously lumped in with the other ‘infidel’ countries that Usama was advocating overthrowing…?

It would be nice to see an actual transcript, instead of these pithy and useles summaries.

gak, ‘useless’

Man, does this stink! Its the smell of mendacity, Big Daddy.

First, you gotta wonder: just a little while ago, we got an alleged “Osama” tape. It tooks days of expert poring over it, and still the determination of its authenticity was in question.

But this very day, today, mind you, Powell says yeppers, this is the real thing, no doubt about it, absolutely the real thing. Now isn’t that remarkable? What amazing progress has been made in the intervening months! Colin Powell has no doubt whatsoever.

Who’s zooming who here?

Now maybe its the real thing. I don’t necessarily doubt it, truth be known, I got no clue. Osama ain’t the most stable isotope on the periodic table. Who knows?

But the timing…the timing… just plain stinks. Its the most amazing stroke of GeeDubya luck since the 10,000 Jews for Buchanan. On the gripping hand, that one really happened! Somebody is on his side. I hesitate to guess.

In general, I think that if the U.S. government lies or exerts undue influence, it’ll do so relatively subtly, not in a way that is on every channel screaming in the faces of every single American. I truly don’t believe that anyone in the government is so arrogant that they think they could get away with such things, especially these days, especially in a globally-watched issue like this. Perhaps I’m naive, but I can’t think that the potential rewards of such bald-faced action could be worth the massive risk in this particular context.

That said, I believe that the tape is real, and that if there was any behind the scenes hanky panky going on on our side, it was with the U.S. intelligence community sitting on the tape, waiting for the right time to spring it. Because frankly, I don’t see what’s so good about the timing now, in comparison with any other day since Bush has been pushing for war. What’s soooooo great about the tape coming out now, as opposed to the day Powell first went to the UN to make the administration’s case? I don’t see it.

The hell with an English-language transcript; I’d give a helluva lot for a reliable English translation from an Arabic printed original. Where the hell are all the Arabic-speaking Dopers? Can someone PLEASE check the Arabic-language press and see if there’s a complete copy of the speech, and provide an annotated translation? I’d settle for a brief (but literal) abstract.

Hey, a girl can hope, can’t she?

Tonight, on NPR, one of the guest analysts said that he thinks the tape is a fake. He said that the voice mispronounced several of the names of Bin Laden’s associates, where the names were pronounced correctly on tapes that we know to be of Bin Laden.

I second the call for a reliable, third-party translation of the original broadcast. No judgement can be rendered until that is availble.

Your wish, my esteemed colleagues. The FULL TEXT, according to the BBC.

Hmm, I see nothing there about ousting Saddam.

The comments about Tora Bora were interesting. Looks like we screwed the pooch on that one.

He hints at cooperation but we know what Usama does to infidels. In this passage, Saddam is clearly viewed as an infidel. One could reasonably term this a not-so-veiled call for ouster.

I’m struck by his how-to-get-killed-quickly instrucions to the poor Iraqis. I don’t think they will be dug in as well as he was at Tora Bora somehow.

Does Osama have the kind of religious clout necessary to declare “martyrs”?

(Weird sidelight: story I read some time back about an Iranian religious tribunal whose job was to review cases brought by relatives of people who died in the war with Iraq. Thier purpose was to determine which qualified as “martyrs”, thus guarenteed Paradise, and which were merely heros of the Islamic Revolution.)

What religious authority might be invoked to convince Iraqi Sunni Moslems, or maybe even the Shi’ite, that dying in the struggle against the Infidel would qualify as martyrdom? They might ignore the Saddam issue all together! Might even be enough to move ol’ Saddam to Get Religion!

If I remember correctly, Ossama and his buddies have given the title of shaykh to himself. I think it means a learned muslim of the highest order or some-such. I have heard it argued that he is not learned enough to have that title. So it may not be official.

I don;t know that has the clout to declare a martyr. I may be wrong though. In a sense anyone who can be considered as “died for the faith” could be called a martyr.

I think Ossamma’s clout pretty much comes from his infamous status to the US and his dedication “to the cause”. Who needs titles when your a modern day folk hero.

Just curious, what is meant by “roofed and disguised trenches” in OBLs message? Is this a mistranslation of ‘tunnel’ ?

Does anyone know where I might be able to get a copy of this tape?

Thanks

Roofed and disguised would just mean camouflaged so it doesn’t stick out when viewed from the air, I’d think.

Even FOX NEWS CHANNEL had commentary (right after they aired the speech on a live feed from Al-Jazeera) on the fact that OBL had spoken poorly of govt’s like Saddam’s in his speech and called for their eventual overthrow. I was watching it, the afternoon commentator specifically mentioned that OBL’s attitude towards the secular govts pretty much ruled out the idea that he had any ties to Saddam. It was presented as a “lesser of two evils” sort of decision by OBL. Heck, even O’Reilley didn’t frame it as an alliance between OBL and Saddam, just an Islam thing. If FNC isn’t going to trumpet a connection between Saddam and OBL, I don’t think it’s going to happen to any great extent.

ephidryn, if you can read and understand Arabic, here is the link to the tape:

http://www.aljazeera.net/news/arabic/2003/2/2-11-15.htm

They are presenting it, with commentary, on the Al-Jazeera channel as well (if you have satellite there in Spain).

In listening to the tape, I would have to say the the BBC translation is good, and, more to the point, conveys the message well.

As to the questions asked above: “roofed and disguised” refers to the fact that the trenches were covered with dirt, rock, and wooden (sometimes cement) roofing material. They were able to hunker down for quite some time, and there is some evidence that they had supplies with them, in hopes of outlasting a long assault. The trenches were dug in quite well, and were hard to spot from the ground or the air; the observers had a hard time calling in support on specific targets, so there ended up being more of a carpet-bombing/rolling barrage aspect to the assault.

In fact, depending on what areas we decide to attack through on our way to Baghdad, his recommendations to the Iraqi people aren’t bad, from a tactical point of view; the Israelis were able to “hide in plain sight” during the October (or Yom Kippur) War of 1973, in the Sinai tank campaign. That battle occurred on more or less open terrain, and the Israeli anti-tank teams took a devastating toll on the surprised Egyptian tankers; they used trenches that they had dug in and camouflaged in the evenings, and let the main assault wave get deep into their defenses before opening fire. If we decide to avoid the plains of Iraq, and go through the northern, more mountainous areas (like Tikrit), then the trench plan is even better suited to defense; once we hit the cities, trenches can only serve to make matters slower and more dangerous.

Granted, I don’t think that Saddam will be listening much to ObL’s tactical advice; he sees him as an opportunist who happened to get some serious attention, but doesn’t really see the organization as a group of tactical geniuses. When it comes to terrorist or guerilla tactics, though, I’m sure that Saddam’s forces will be hitting the books on ways to keep themselves alive during the coming assault.

And no, ObL has no capability to declare anyone a martyr; even a sheikh can’t do that, regardless of how he has been given the title. Just as in Catholicism there is a “board” decision on saints, the same basic thing occurs in Islam; a group of the big guns get together and discuss such issues (usually they are imams, sometimes referred to as sheikhs, but actually higher up the food chain). Al-Azhar University in Cairo has long been the definitive body, but the imams in Saudi like to throw their two cents in as well. The only real exception to this rule is if the declaration is made by a sharif: in Islam, a sharif is one who is directly descended from the prophet Mohammed. Currently, both the King of Jordan (Abdullah) and the King of Morocco (Hassan V) are sharifs; as such, they do have the ability to “rule” on certain aspects of Islam. They usually stay out of the religious arena, though; the title is still respected, but they know better than to push too hard against the religious elite.

And as far as a link between Saddam and ObL: not in this tape. ObL doesn’t support Saddam at all, but does want to show solidarity with the Iraqi people. That’s it; as stated by others in the thread, even the administration’s most ardent backers would have a hard time using this recording to support their plans.

Hope this informs -

Greco