The transition away from print has definitely been true for me: twenty years ago I took three daily newspapers; now I take none (I live half way between two major newspapers; I also took the Wall Street Journal). I am reading as many newspaper stories now–but it is all online.
I don’t know whether the 10 years figure is accurate, but in the long term their fate seems sealed. I am 35 years old and I don’t subscribe to any newspaper. I can’t name a single member of my generation who does.
The more relevant question is whether their online presence will bring in enough money to allow serious journalism to continue existing at all.
I saw someone reading a newspaper on the train yesterday. It was the first time I had seen that in about three years.
I’m almost exactly your age, I also don’t get a newspaper, and I used to work at a newspaper.
I think the donation/freemium model will work for local news sites if they don’t get complacent and if there’s enough demand for a local news site. I can list off sites which are ad-light or ad-free and supported by people paying for content, but they all have one thing in common: GOOD CONTENT, not lightly-edited AP wire copy and press releases.
Similarly, if the local demand is Jack and shit and Jack just left town, well, maybe there’s enough demand for a regional news site.
I don’t even see newspapers lying around that much any more, but my local paper used to be normal “newspaper sized” and with several sections. Last time I saw a copy, it is now tabloid-sized with a single section.
57, and try to have the local paper (Chicago Trib) delivered to my home daily. Since the new year, it has been a struggle to get it delivered by the promised time (6:30 M-Sa, 8 Sun). Isn’t much use to me if it comes after I’ve gone to work.
I’m sure at some point (hopefully far in the future) I will be forced to read the paper on a device, but I hope it is a long way off.
(My dad worked in the printing business all of his adult life, and I put in considerable time working in various press rooms and binderies. Read my first book on kindle last month - didn’t care for the experience.)
My father still subscribes to the print edition of The New York Times. He’s 85 years old. I’m several decades younger and I subscribe to the website. (It’s funny though; my father will call me to recommend an article and make a point of telling me something like, “It’s on page A6, in the upper right hand corner.” I’ve given up on trying to tell him that I don’t see the paper in the same way.)
I’ll tell you one place where print media will still thrive: the Orthodox Jewish community, who still want something to read on the Sabbath, when we don’t use any electronic devices. That may not be enough for the New York Time to justify a print edition, but there are several periodicals specifically produced for/within the community which I’m sure will continue print indefinitely.
I still get the newspaper in print every day, I know I’m a rare breed.
I’ve noticed there’s a difference between reading a newspaper in print and reading it online. Online I see a list of all the top stories, but there are lots of stories that are missed. When I read the print newspaper, I look at every page, so I see every single headline at least, even if I don’t read every story. It feels more comprehensive.
Also I can’t do the crossword puzzle online. It has to be done on paper, with a pencil in my hand. I can’t think otherwise.
And it’s all the fault of the lack of vision of the newspaper executives!
The newspaper business was easily positioned to take huge advantage of the online technology.
Newspapers spent 50% of their funds on printing paper newspapers, and maintaining a network of carriers to deliver them to thousands of houses before breakfast time. Had they done it properly, they could have designed a system where all that was eliminated – subscribers would print their own copies of the paper (or only the sections that interested them) on their own printers, in their own home. So 50% of the newspapers’ costs go away. Offer people 25% cheaper subscription costs (and stress the immediately updated ‘news’) and people will sign up for this. Newspapers could have had reduced costs & higher profits if they had done this.
I’m 43 and don’t subscribe or read a print paper, and I used to work for a newspaper as an editor, and helped launch an alt weekly about a decade ago.
As we were noodling with the business model for our alt weekly, we threw out the idea of doing it as a non-profit. Decided it wouldn’t work for what we were going for, but there might be something to it for keeping credible journalism going. Seeking grants, tax-deductible donations, etc. It probably wouldn’t keep print alive, but it might be a way to fund good quality journalism in the future, NPR-style.
It was tried, at least in some markets, and failed miserably. I, and apparently many others, will not get up extra early to print my own newspaper before going to work.
I prefer hard copy print to a device for newspapers, books and magazines - but want pretty much everything else digital.
Note that The New York Times has over 2.5 million digital-only subscribers, including me. That’s more than most newspapers ever had for print subscribers. And most of us aren’t trying to print the paper ourselves, but instead are just reading the thing on our computers, phones or tablets entirely online.
What, and ignore the shrieking of the whiniest demographic?
What happened to newspapers is what happened to a lot of businesses before and since, so much so that whole books have been written about this, “The Innovator’s Dilemma” being the best-known. I’ll break it down in list form:
[list=#]
[li]The Business starts based on The Original Technology: Here, The Business is print journalism, and The Original Technology is hot type printing presses which allow multiple editions a day, as opposed to the older technology, merely movable type, which was good for books and handbills but required too much manual labor to run a newspaper as we know them today.[/li][li]The Business finds Great Success with The Business Model: This is the period when The Business gets addicted to The Business Model, because nothing else can give them the same Great Success immediately. [/li][li]The New Technology comes along, but doesn’t replicate the same Great Success and so is ignored: The New Technology is basically what you just said, which is basically what everyone said when BBSes took off, let alone the Internet. In this specific instance, computer adoption was fast-ish in this country, but not fast enough that a newspaper could transition from print to digital, with or without the Internet (“without” being a dial-up BBS), without eating a loss to begin with. This is when the shrieking would have begun, and when they would have bled existing subscribers in the hopes of picking up a substantial number of new ones. It is that aversion to short-term loss which kills the business in the longer term.[/li][li]The Business slowly dies as The Business Model falters and no longer provides Great Success, or any success of note: This is where we are today. Newspapers which didn’t or couldn’t eat that lost twenty years ago, when the Internet had definitively eaten the world and left their original business model a dead system walking, are now locked into chasing a specific generation into the grave, and will die when there are no more advertisers interested in their sole remaining demographic. Hint: Nobody but a scammer wants to sell anything to nursing home residents.[/li][/list]
I can go through the same kind of arc for two different computer companies (IBM and DEC), one software company (Microsoft), and one company which should have become a computer company (Xerox), and prove that, while it isn’t always fatal, it can unseat the biggest, most dominant company from a position of unquestioned supremacy and relegate it to a much smaller role in the industry.
I can see what you’re saying, but people wouldn’t have gone along with this.
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Printers weren’t that good for many years: dot matrix newspapers? No thanks. Even when laser printers came along, and beat the crap out of previous printers, they were very expensive. Even today, laser toner isn’t cheap.
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Who would want to spend their time and resources printing a newspaper every day? That would take a lot of ink and paper. You (as the newspaper) are asking me (the consumer) to pay for my own materials to print the news that I could otherwise get from you? Why would I want to do that?
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How would I have gotten the news to print at home anyway? It would’ve had to have been delivered in some fashion, even electronically, like it is today. But the electronic infrastructure wasn’t in place to do that efficiently. At best, companies like AOL and Compuserve were doing what you’re talking about, and those were dial-up days.
I think newspapers should’ve gone digital long before they are now, but I disagree with the print-on-demand model.
And my 93-year old aunt and I were talking about all this the other day; I think the major newspapers will be around in print for quite awhile (more than a decade), because they are the newspapers of record. And people will want a hardcopy of the news. It’ll be more expensive, and maybe not a daily, but I don’t think they’ll go the way of monks scribing on vellum in our lifetime.
In the very early days of the internet, there was such a proposal. I think the idea was that you’d download the content overnight for printing in the morning.
I’m on the edge of leaving it behind, but I can’t yet bring myself to do it. Weird. I’ve always had a hometown newspaper. Some were good, some merely boring, but in those days, there wasn’t anything else. But I loved my newspaper. When I moved to where I’ve lived for a long time, I thought our local rag was the best home town paper I had ever read. Now it’s a worthless piece of shit. Except, it has several features that still make my day better. A local column I love, Mark Trail:cool: and three, no, now four crossword puzzles for the Missus. But most of the paper is unreadable except for strictly local news. I go through the Sunday paper in 20 minutes. Don’t even look at the editorial section anymore. It’s repetitive dreck. Sunday comics are weak and uninteresting. Doesn’t even have Sunday Mark Trail. Fortunately my sister sends me all the Washington Post Sunday funnies every month or so, and I can catch up. So why the fuck am I paying $600 a year for this bullshit. I don’t know. I truly don’t know. Can’t break the habit. Or something. But it’s not going to go on for 10 more years or so, that’s for sure.
Some newspapers survive in part on the revenue from publishing legal notices. I think there’s some requirement that they be published in a “newspaper of general circulation”. And despite the decline in the big-city newspapers, there are still a bunch of small-town newspapers. My parents live in a suburban Connecticut town with a population under 15,000 people. And yet, they get several weekly newspapers with a focus on news about the town or other towns in the area.
So I guess there never was any such a thing as cold type?
I guess I skipped a little bit in talking about technology I wasn’t going to focus on.