"Newsweek" cover story exposes well-funded global-warming denial machine

You could make a case that anyone presenting an argument one way or the other financially benefits to some extent - a lot of jobs, seminar paychecks and political careers are affected.

What matters in the end is how good the science is, and for me it is strongly on the side of those who argue that manmade climate alterations are detrimental and need to be addressed (the particular solutions are where the real debate lies).

I tend not to be influenced by those who get frustrated when their ideas are not being accepted, and hope that they can turn the public their way by portraying the other side as an Evil Lobby. Just stick to the facts.

I just want to know why it’s so predictable that all the people claiming it hasn’t been proven are Republicans. I don’t understand the correlation.
Edited to add: I’m sure someone will quibble with “all” but it’s damned close to all.

Your O is very H in this regard. :slight_smile: You underestimate humanity, but quite a bit. As an extreme case, do you doubt that a full nuclear exchange wouldn’t have affected the environment (even if it didn’t cause a nuclear winter?) Even been to LA during a smog alert? Read about the hole in the ozone layer, and how we both caused it and cured it.

Does it strike anyone else as odd that an example of environmentalists sounding the alarm, the world responding, and a real problem being fixed is being used as a reason why we should ignore the alarm this time? They cried wolf, we went to where the boy was, found the wolf munching on a sheep, and shot the sucker dead. Maybe we should keep on responding, eh?

What on Earth are you talking about? The paragraph you quoted describes the history of the GW-denial network and its messages, and that is how it went AFAIK. Got contrary facts?

:rolleyes: Completely different topic which you seem to be confusing/conflating with the first sentence. In any case, cite?

We discovered the hole and we noticed it grows and shrinks with sun exposure, yes if noticing natural patterns is causing and curing it perhaps you can come up with a cure for darkness at dawn and a cure for brightness at dusk.

Being a dittohead the message of Rush has always been that we are not effecting the global temperature, not that the climate is not changing. Now perhaps you can dig up a few minor GW deniers to support your contention, but the heavy hitter on this issue has always been consistent.

The Newsweek clip itself is without support.

It has plenty if you’ll read the whole article; what I quoted was just the intro.

Are you claiming that the average size of the hole didn’t increase with time, and is now decreasing? Obviously there can be a trend with daily fluctuations imposed on it. I’m pretty sure there are chemical mechanisms describing the interaction of CFCs with the ozone, so this isn’t just an attempt to infer causation from correlation.

What does “proven” mean?

Look, I agree that 90% probability is sufficient to start betting that it’s right… but NOT enough to make statements like “proven”. In my view, only people with a poor grasp of mathematics would make such a claim. If you are suggesting that such people are found more amongst Democrats than amongst Republicans, i won’t argue the point, although I think it’s a cruel jab at Democrats.

:rolleyes: We’re talking about scientific, not mathematical, proof. See post #12.

And in some incredibly bad timing, it’s apparently been found that a Y2K bug has made 1938 the warmest year on record in the lower 48 states, not 1998. It’s already being trumpeted in some circles as refuting the idea that “science agrees on global warming,” not to mention the whole idea that it’s something to worry about. They’re already drooling in anticipation for the expected “cover up” (i.e. that this won’t get much play at all in the media - which on its own I can’t disagree with).

I live and work in San Diego. If the sea levels rise a hundred feet, I will be one of the displaced.

Why? (Notice I said that The Sierra Club had “less deeppockets than Exxon”.)

I should trust the side that funds less in public service messages or lobbying money? That does not sound like good logic to me either.

You (the OP) asked:

I answered: It already has been front page news for the last 7 years or so (in my experience), so no new noticable change by this article.

I tried to explain why I think the polls show such a large subset of the population as “wait and see” fence sitters…

  1. Bombarded by messages from both sides of the issue, claiming to have the scientific gravitas, which the other is ignoring or distorting.

  2. In the past 30 or so years, various enviornmental issues have cropped up, and the most extreme worst case scenarios have been put forth to Joe Six Pack as to what will happen if Nothing Is Done Right Now. The actual events have been somewhat less than advertised.

It’s not the message that I dispute, as I do not have the skill set to know which studies are flawed, and which are not.

For me, it’s the tone of the messenger that needs to change if you want to change the hearts and minds of the masses, IMO.

Got to stop the “Your just stupid”, “Your in the pocket of Big Oil”, “Your an ee-ville Republican” attacks. I find that distracts from the message, and belittles the messenger.

The notion of “proof” means very different things to a scientist than to a lawyer. As John mentioned upsteam, 90% is a big ass number for an intellect utterly addicted to quantification. That is some serious shit. That would be like you’re prosecuting the guy who announced his name and address over the loudspeaker at the ball park, then walked out in the middle of a fully attended ball game, shot the pitcher six times and then sat down and waited for the cops. They would say he’s* probably* guilty, maybe 90% sure…

You’re like clockwork.

mlees: I’m not sure what polls you’re looking at but, depending on how you word the question, anywhere from a majority to a super majority of the U.S. population believes GW is a threat and agrees steps should be taken in certain areas like increasing gas mileage in cars and limiting the CO2 emissions of power plants. The U.S. population has been way ahead of the politicians on this issue. Of course, the devil is always in the details, but there is a widespread feeling that “something must be done.”

I don’t think that anyone’s claimed (besides, say, Kevin Costner in the movie Waterworld) that sea levels can possibly rise by a hundred feet. Hell, if that happens, we’re all pretty damn screwed.

The most I’ve seen projected is about 15 meters, so San Diego’s gonna be okay… well, 'til Lex Luthor drops it into the ocean as part of a land grab.

Although I’m not going to do someone else’s legwork and come up with total funding levels (and I think that’s a red herring because I don’t know that the question can be factually answered, as it would involve a detailed examination of the source(s) and characterization of the sourcing groups that would be open to argument at every turn), don’t pretend that it happens on both sides. I was paid more than $20,000 to write a paper proving that reducing greenhouse gases at a power plant was good for everyone economically, undercutting other papers that said it wasn’t. Of course, I used “just the facts”, but ultimately the paper hinged on an assumption of two critical things which were only estimates and which had wide variables where, depending upon what you assumed, could say that GHG reduction was the worst thing you could do, or a no-brainer. (the two assumptions were, in effect, “true” cost per ton of CO2 and the available tons of biomass annually from the US Forest Service and a native American facility).

In the end, I did a sensitivity analysis on both parameters as a matrix of solution points, and let the reader decide what they wanted to assume, since it wasn’t scientifically valid for me to choose any single assumption for the two variables. I fear the result went over the head of the audience, as people kept asking me “I don’t care, just tell me the answer!” As a result, my attempt to encompass the variability of real life was not well-received.

As far as total levels of funding, I have no idea. I know that I’ve written or helped write an enormous number of technical papers, and in all that time the number of times where undue influence has been exerted on me is about 1/4 of the time or less. However, that influence has come from folks on the GW-belief, GW-non-belief, and the “we don’t give a shit about GW” side fairly equally. The vast majority of the time - and note that I work fairly heavily for the “evil” coal plants - they just want the facts, and they decide what it is they do with those facts, and that is where the “influence” comes into play. But I also do work for environmental folks trying to push their schemes (coal beneficiation, biomass solids, bio-oil, etc.) for GHG reduction.

And you better believe that the same folks who make money building power plants are rubbing their hands with hope, yes hope, that CO2 capture/sequestration will be mandated in some form. Because who’s going to get those EPC contracts? Them. A very high-up person at B&W told me at a conference, over drinks that night, that they’re anticipating that far ahead in the future carbon capture will make up as much as 50% of their business, and be highly profitable. Just like the same people who built the plants (like, oh, my company) made and are making enormous amounts of money off of scrubbers, SCR/SNCR, mercury capture, and all the studies, tests, and conceptual designs out there.

There’s a huge entrenched industry that is waiting and ready to make money off of GHG reductions. Read that as either positive or negative, depending on your position.

I’m claiming that there is no evidence that this is anything but a natural cycle, happening happily all by itself before man invented CFC’s. We just discovered the hole and thought it was us doing it. We predicted that fluorine would cause damage for decades, the closing of the hole did not correspond to the decreased use of CFC’s as CFC’s (well the F) should have continued to cause damage way past the closing.

Antarctica does not have normal day night cycles as we thing of them, it has basically (and over simplified) 6 months of day and 6 months of night. Ozone is effected by the sun, and the sun runs in cycles of increased and decreased activity. It is much more likely that is was a natural sun cycle that sort of corresponded to the ban of CFC’s.

Some of the vast right wing conspiracy ™say that there is also a natural sun cycle that is causing the G.W., I’ve heard the claim it will level off in 2012-2015 (IIRC) and start to reverse. The left will jump on this to say that carbon limits are working and use that to enforce more restrictions in our private lives and they have a vested interest in getting something done now so they can say they made the difference.

Now I’m not sure I buy into either conspiracy theory, but a look at history has proven the tendency of people to claim some higher knowledge or control over natural events to take control. I see this as no different then saying to a people god will tell you to make me the ruler by darking the sky tomorrow at 10 am, as you know there is a eclipse at that time, they do not.

Isn’t there a saying something along the lines those who forget history are doomed to drive little electric golf cart vehicles to work.

It doesn’t matter.

Look at the two possibilities:

  1. Humans are cuasing it, it’s going to hurt humans, we can do something to stop it. Conclusion: we should do whatever we can to fight it.

  2. Humans are NOT causing it, it’s natural, it’s going to hurt humans, we can do some things to reduce our contribution to it and delay/mitigate the effects. (Known fact.) Conclusion: we should do whatever we can to fight it.

So, debating whether humans are causing it at all is mere sidetracking. The need now is to act.

Sailboat

Well, it may have always been that way until I opened a newspaper. But look at any weather map in any newspaper, and you’ll see, consistently, year after year, higher temperatures in cities (built-up centers of human activity). By a few degrees. Everywhere, all the time, permanently. Now, the laws of thermodynamics clarify for us that heat does not “go away.” SO we know that those population centers are warming the globe overall. The question is, is anything countering it? How would we tell? Well, since we KNOW human heat is going into the environment, we just have to look at global temps overall. If they’re steady or declining, something is overcoming our effect (we’re still HAVING said effect, of course).

Oops, they’re rising. Guess it’s real!

Sailboat

Global Warming is the new Y2K…

Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman:

Which becomes: http://climateprogress.org/2007/08/06/did-climate-change-contribute-to-the-minneapolis-bridge-collapse/

You can read further down, most of the comments are worth a chuckle.

Someone stop me, I’m laughing too hard!