In the northern peninsula Of Michigan there is a lot of sentiment for breaking away. They don’t want to be a new country they just don’t want to be part of Michigan. They say that the government in Lansing doesn’t know that they are there.
Nope, no new recognized countries since mid-99. As pointed out before, E. Timor is still abirthing, existing meanwhile as an international protectorate (I think the bulk of the troops are Aussies and Kiwis).
The latest annual report data I got from the UN GA “4th Committee” (the one dealing with non-independent states) looks like it’s not inminent for any of the UN-recognized “non self governing” entities to attain formal independence.
Montenegro had seemed to be going towards separate existence, but after the overthrow of Milosevic the pressure may have been relieved, what with the UN re-admitting What’s Left Of Yugoslavia. OTOH the Kosovars seem less and less inclined to a resumption of being an “autonomous region” of Serbia when/if the peacekeeping force goes home
I’ll throw in a couple of predictions about countires which might disappear in the near future:
- N & S Korea, after unification.
- The Gambia, unified with Senegal.
- Belarus, absorbed into Russia.
- Moldova, absorbed into Romania.
And can anyone tell me why San Marino (which is just 1/3rd the size of the District of Columbia) isn’t part of Italy?
San Marino claims it dates back to 300, although it was granted recognition by the major authority of the area (aka The Pope) until 1631.
San Marino and Italy have signed a series of treaties over the years guaranteeing the republic’s independence.
I don’t think Italy is really bothered that San Marino is independent. It’s not as if the San Marinese are going to invade Italy and take over the country. And Italy makes money off San Marino’s goods, all of which have to pass through Italian ports in order to be exported.
Senegambia already was attempted back in the 80s, it did not hold – the goal was be scaled back to a European-style union-of-sovereign-states with a joint central body, and even that eventually broke down after 7 years and was replaced by traditional bilateral economic-military treaties. The new governments in both, once they feel stable enough, may try again
Moldova has been having troubles with the minority communities within itself since independence, plus serious political differences with the Romanian governments, both situations which they seem to want resolved before proceeding to unification.
jrd
If the world made sense, Moldova would have already joined Romania by now. The only fly in the ointment there is the self-styled Trans-Dniester Republic, a little sliver of territory on the eastern edge of Moldova. It has an ethnic Russian & Ukrainian population. When Moldova became independent, some extremely nationalistic ethnic Russians there raised a big stink and declared themselves a “republic.”
Stalin had a way of monkeying with Soviet republic borders, to manipulate the ethnic balance of populations. Look at a map of that tangled knot of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in the Fergana Valley that makes no sense whatever. Moldova is historically a part of Bessarabia (Romania’s eastern province) that was conquered by expansionist Russian Empire. Romania got it back after WWI for a few years but then the Soviets took it over again in 1924. Romania got is back again in WWII but the Soviets took it again in 1945. In 1947 the southern part of Moldavia (access to the Black Sea) was given to Ukraine, and part of Ukraine along the bank of the Dniester, an ethnically Slavic area, went to Moldavia. When the Soviet Union broke up, that area became the rallying place for malcontents who thought Russia should keep on ruling all the republics.
If Moldova were to reunite with Romania, the Trans-Dniester Russians would cause trouble. I don’t know why Moldova doesn’t just cut them loose and say to hell with them, as the territory originally wasn’t part of Moldova to begin with.
I see that nobody in this thread predicted South Sudan.
Moved to IMHO from General Questions.
Please note that this thread was started 1999.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
From visiting Alaska I know a lot of people there would like to be separate from the rest of the US.
Kudos to some of the accurate predictions like East Timor, Macedonia, and Montenegro.
Some of the places mentioned like Quebec, Chechnya, and Puerto Rico are less likely to be independent to-day now.
As for my actual predictions I think there’s a good chance Belgium might split up into Flanders and Walloonia (although that leaves the question of what happens to Brussels-I’d personally recommand making it a Free City in the tradition of the Holy Roman Empire) while Scotland’s planning a referendum on independence. And I think its overdue Somaliland and Puntland be recognized as free and independent states.
I can see Syria breaking up into at least 3 independent states. It all depends on how bloody the war becomes. The Assad regime looks like it can hold out for quite some time. I also see Iran breaking up, in the distant future.
I’ll go for Somaliland.
But that apart…
A lot of English would like Scotand to become truly independant, unfortunately for them, lot of Scots would prefer it not to happen.
Wow! A 13-year-old zombie thread! That’s got to be a record. I’d say that the Quebec and Puerto Rican seperatist movements have cooled quite a bit, and are probably unlikely today.
I suspect that Northern Irelend might soon vote to separate from the UK and re-unite with the rest of Ireland. The demographics of NI have been shifting towards the Catholics for a long time, and by some accounts it might be majority-Catholic now.
Hmmmm lets see, the majority N.I. population voting to leave one of the major economic world powers to join a small country with a GDP less then some African and E.European nations.
Who lacks any major industries or businesses, but relies on some agriculture, a small amount of tourism, and its school leavers moving to England, Australia or the U.S. to find work.
Leaving to join a country with close ties to the Catholic church, with governmental corruption rife at all levels, and which is not a member of NATO or allied with the United States.
To unite with a people that rightly or wrongly, is perceived by N.I.s majority population, as being supporters of the people who kidnapped, tortured and murdered their family members, friends, neighbours and workmates.
This on top of the fact that that the majority population are incredibly patriotic about their being British.
To understand their mindset, as an American how would you feel if you were told that you were losing your U.S. citizenship to become forcibly Canadian.
Not too good eh ?
Now substitute Canadian with Albanian, which is a more realistic comparison.
To unite with a country that many people in N.I. would actively fight to the death with if unification was forced on them.
Personally I won’t be holding my breath waiting for that to happen.
Macedonia had been independent for years when this thread was started.
It’s going to be majority Catholic/Nationalist in the near future. I don’t know however what that will mean in the short to medium term politically. NI benefits economically from being a part of the UK, it has the NHS, and other perks too. I wonder when push comes to shove how many people of a nationalist background would vote with their pockets and choose to remain within the UK.
We’ve had our differences in the past, but I do see your point.
I could honestly see the Catholic population, because of larger families outstripping the Protestant population in the future.
The other populations that make up the U.K. aren’t incredibly enthusiastic about N.I. protestants, and would under other circumstances be happy to let them go off on their own.
But we always have to be “Decent chaps”, and do the right thing, so there is no chance on earth now that we’d let N.I. go for face saving reasons, because we know that once “independant”, the various Republican terrorist groups would try to make life untenable for the Ps, so that they’d emigrate soonest.
What we call ethnic cleansing.
But the fact is, left on their own, and with the gloves off, the Prods would go extreme.
Shankhill Butchers wouldn’t be in it.
The South could and would be taken out incredibly quickly and easily.
And before you say it, WITHOUT any HMG help.
We’d be glad to be shot of the whole situation.
Ironically the IRA in the north, in all of its incarnations has operated more safely because the British Army has, along with stopping IRA murderers, kept Protestant terrorists in check at the point of a gun.
You can believe this or not, I don’t care, but I’ve always believed in a united Ireland.
Unfortunately the majority population in the North, loathe and despise you guys, and everything that you represent.
Personally I loathe and despise terrorists of any complexion.
Whether Protestant, Catholic, Muslim, American, Spanish whatever.
If you have a genuine cause you don’t need to terrorise innocent civilians to back your standpoint.
If there were a referendum held in Quebec on secession, it would fail badly (get under 45% and maybe under 40%, but maybe over 50% of the old-line French). If there were a referendum in the rest of Canada to kick Quebec out, it would win overwhelmingly west of Ontario, lose badly in the Maritimes, and maybe a tossup in Ontario. Since there are more people west of Ontario than east of Quebec it would likely pass. It is already quasi-independent and has achieved much of what it set out to do.
I would love to see the Palestinians get a separate sovereign state.
Kurdistan?
[quote=“AWB, post:2, topic:3049”]
[ul][li]Quebec[/li][li]Macedonia[/li][li]Texas[/ul][/li][/QUOTE]
The question was which country…Quebec is not a country…as much as I wish they were…once and for all…finally.
What about Azawad?