This is the ultimate example of “Those who know don’t talk, and those who talk don’t know”. We can talk about what they should do, but it’s useless to make predictions.
The pattern of the recent past (“recent” in RCC terms being measured in centuries) seems to have been roughly to alternate pastors with theologians in the post. John was a “Mr. Outside” kind of Pope, focused on serving the flock; Paul was a “Mr. Inside”, devoted to theological matters but uninterested in travel or preaching; JP1&2 fit the pastoral mode again (JP2 theologically was a simple conservative, spending his time telling the people what was right but never considering the possibility of change). If the cardinals get back to that, look for the next Pople to be a bookworm whose existence will be known mainly from a string of published homilies.
But then the pattern, since the Middle Ages, was also that he had to be Italian.
Well, that is one reason sports book is NOT necessarily a reliable predictor of non-sports world events – the oddsmaking can give disproportionate representation to the only-partially-informed.
Honestly how many of us would have recognized out of that list anyone but Ratzinger, Lustiger, and whoever is from our part of the world, had we seen the list “blind” before the current succession event?
Looking over the list I’m surprised to see a couple Jesuits, considering the problems the late Pope had with the order. Personally, I’m liking Kasper for his moderation, his ecumenical spirit, and his willingness to take on Ratzinger (do you get the impression I don’t like Cardinal Ratzinger?). Ortega y Alamino and Ouellet–well, I’m cranky so I don’t want to encourage the Cubans or Quebecers. Husar has a GREAT beard and would be worth electing for that alone. Antonelli looks interesting but Arinze is WAY too conservative for me.
My money is on Hoyos, though. He has it all: reactionary and in heavy denial about the priest abuses so you know he has no interest in luring back people like me, and Latin American at a time when the Church needs to shore up its base there. Where does Paddy power have him? Hmmmmm, 18:1 looks good.
…I guess we know who the SDMB is endorsing in this race… 