Hard to calculate, but as you point out, the NFL doesn’t give every team an equal chance to host the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay, Miami and New Orleans have an overwhelming advantage in Super Bowl hosting (they’ve hosted almost half of all SBs), with occasional bones thrown to cities that just built a new stadium (customary for the NFL to showcase a new venue by giving it one and perhaps only one SB.)
So the Dolphins, Saints and Bucs would have a much higher likelihood of being able to play in the SB at home than any other team.
Chiefs or Bucs? Seems like the public has sorta sided with the Bucs this week which is not what I would have expected. Going in I was thinking about picking them but I’m terrified of Mahomes. O/U has fluctuated between 56 and 58 points and the over feels like a safe bet, but of course that’s what they want you to think.
I’m in on the Chiefs. While the injuries to the O line are a big concern, the 3 point line is too small for how good the Chiefs offense is. I couldn’t pull the trigger on the over/under, but I put down on the Chiefs, Kelce first to score TD, and heads on the coin flip.
The league has a rule that a city which doesn’t have an NFL franchise in the market can’t host a Super Bowl, which is why the Los Angeles area was out of the rotation for 20 years – they’re finally hosting again next year, so either the Rams or the Chargers (or even both) could be playing in their home city.
Phoenix has now hosted three times, and they’ll be hosting again two years from now, as well. And, I agree, it’s very likely that Vegas will now be in the rotation, as it’s a city that has all of the other amenities for entertaining and secondary events that the league wants in a host city.
I was reading that the line opened at +3.5 and the sharps/early money went in hard on the Bucs. Then the line moved to +3 and the bets flipped hard to the Chiefs. I know the sharps are analytics driven but that dramatic of a shift over a half point defies logic. I get it, 3 points is a common push number, but still. Seems overly reactive to me.
I’m hanging onto my bets so far but I’m definitely pulling the trigger on something before kickoffs. Bad gambler logic, but I want to bet something even though I don’t feel strongly about any outcomes.
I’m having a hard time seeing how the Bucs will even keep this game close. The Chiefs will jump out to an early lead and only grow it from that point on. Tampa Bay will have a moral victory if they can merely lose by less than two touchdowns.
Yeah, but I do wonder if some winning margins occur more often than others. 3 points is equal to a field goal, and if the game is indeed close at the end, fairly decent chance the margin will be 3.
If their defense is able to put the same sort of pressure on the Chiefs’ offense that they put on the Packers in both of their games this season (the only games all year in which the Packers’ offensive line looked overmatched), they have a decent chance.