NFL 2022: Divisional Round

That brings up a scenario I don’t think I’ve seen actually happen before: the safety would’ve put SF up 8, and I think it’s possible to onside kick after a safety.

I wonder if there’s a situation where you’d do that on purpose. Say 4th and 20 from your own 5, down 4 points late in the game. Are you more likely to pick up the 4th down or to recover an onside after a safety?

As for Dallas trying that weird play at the end, I cut them some slack. They were in an impossible situation so trying something crazy might be worth a shot.

You certainly can. You must put the ball in play from your own 20 via a free kick, which is a punt, dropkick, or placekick, although you cannot use a tee.

This has happened in the past, it’s uncommon but not what I’d call rare. Taking an intentional safety is a pretty well discussed strategy, though it’s a bit more common as a tactic used by teams with a lead who are pinned deep and looking to eliminate the risk of a turnover or short field following a contested punt. The post safety free kick tends to result in little to no return and is better than a traditional punt.

Yeah, intentional safeties aren’t too rare. Usually they’re used to protect a lead very late as you say, and I can remember the Pats doing it once down 4 since they were pinned so deep. But I was talking about the idea of taking a safety with the intention to onside kick the ensuing free kick, which I don’t recall ever seeing.

I can’t imagine that this would be a profitable strategy and therefore has probably never happened intentionally. Traditional onside kicks are only recovered at something like a 3-5% rate, there’s probably no data on it but I’d have to guess that onside free kicks without a tee would be substantially lower. When recovered you’d commonly possess the ball on or around your 35-yard line in the case of a free kick.

Even pinned inches from your own goal line it’s better to have the ball than not. Your odds of completing a 35-yard pass from the shadow of the goal posts (or getting a DPI penalty) would have to be higher than those of recovering the onside kick. And even if they are comparable, unless it’s 4th down you’re usually going to get more than one shot at it.

Prior to the league changing the rules on kickoffs in 2018 (the kicking team can no longer take a running start, and they have to have five players on each side of the kicker), the success rate on onside kicks was typically in the 15-20% range. It’s been substantially lower in years since, and in 2022, there were only 3 successful onside kicks, out of 57 attempts (5.3%).

Thanks for the numbers. Do we know if the data distinguishes between “surprise” onside kicks versus end of game ones?

A surprise backside kick has a great probability of success, but that has little to do with football.

This, exactly. Even if it’s 4th down, it’d be better to try a desperation pass than to kneel in the end zone and then try an onside kick, IMO.

Not that I’m aware of. I’d strongly suspect that “surprise” ones have a better conversion rate, of course.

This article, from 2020, claims that a whopping 45% of surprise onside kicks succeed.

I’m not so sure the Cowboys wanted to throw it further. On a pass play, the linemen aren’t allowed to be more than a yard downfield when the ball is thrown. Throw the ball deep and the receiver doesn’t have much help. By throwing short, they can get the ball to a runner who falls in behind the linemen and heads downfield.

I’ve wondered a bit what sort of play would give the best chance of working in a situation like this, or what sort of practice or drills would be prepare the players. Could they learn something from watching, or even playing, a little rugby?

Here’s a video of the play. I think TY Hilton (# 16 at the bottom of the screen) was setting up to receive a lateral, with #73 in front of him as a blocker, and #66 to block anyone coming from his right. But yeah, SF blew it up almost instantly - I don’t think Turpin even had both feet down before he got creamed.

A bit off topic, but in a game in 2017, the Cowboys played one of the worst defenses ever against a presumed Hail Mary against the Chiefs. Everybody on the defense except the linemen were back inside the 20 yard line, and, well, here’s what happened:

AFC/NFC uniform poll.

I considered that after my previous post. The Lineman downfield does make that strategy problematic unless they let the receivers get upfield and then set up the wall later. Watching the replay, I actually think this should have been flagged for lineman downfield even with the fast throw.

Do both offensive linemen and quarterbacks get the same 1.5 yard allowance beyond the line before it rises to the level of a penalty?

I think I heard it was 1.5 yards, within the past couple months, in the context of whether the quarterback was across the line when he threw it on a scramble. In any case, they mentioned that there was a certain distance that they don’t call. I didn’t think of it then, but I bet the same standard is applied to offensive lineman blocking.

I think you’re right. The two offensive lineman closest to the receiver both appear to be well past the one yard (or whatever it is) margin allowed before the qb throws the ball.

The quarterback doesn’t get any allowance. The only caveat is that the QBs entire body needs to be across the line for there to be a foul. A running player can span something close to 1.5 yards while still having a trailing toe “onside”.

It looks like the innermost players besides Elliott at center are a little more than a yard behind the line of scrimmage. Does that make Elliott the only “interior lineman” in the formation? And if that’s the case, are all other players on the line eligible receivers unless their number is 50-79?

Perhaps the two that you point out (66 and 73) reported as eligible before the play? That seems like it would be standard procedure before a play like this.