Is it optimism to predict that the other teams in the division are going to be so bad?
I never said I felt the Bears were going to be all that great.
Is it optimism to predict that the other teams in the division are going to be so bad?
I never said I felt the Bears were going to be all that great.
Cowboys expected to release Zeke. His career rush YPG:
2016 – 108.7
2017 – 98.3
2018 – 95.6
2019 – 84.8
2020 – 65.3
2021 – 58.9
2022 – 58.4
Unsurprisingly, those numbers seems to coincide with the decline of their vaunted O-line. He’s still only 27 years old. A lot of hard miles on the odometer, but he’s probably still got a couple of good years left in him.
I think it’s a little hard to tease out the different effects, but I think that the age and mileage, as it were (7 seasons, almost 1900 carries) are likely to have been the bigger factor in his decline – it’s the rare running back who can continue to be a “bell cow” after that many seasons and carries.
That said, I’m sure that someone will pick him up, and he could well be productive for another few seasons, but I have my doubts that a change of scenery will be enough to let him return to feature-back status.
Clearly the biggest factor in his release is the money. Jerry Jones has a bad habit of throwing huge contracts around to favorite players even if it makes no sense. Despite the decline he’s still loved in Dallas. He could still re-sign with them at a much lower salary.
This article from a Fort Worth paper indicates that that’s exactly it. While he’s no longer getting guaranteed money, Elliott was still under contract for ~$10 million this year.
On Pat McAfee’s show this morning, Aaron Rodgers stated what everyone had figured was true anyway:
What an asshole. Negotiations are in process, and he completely undermines the Packers’ leverage.
Is it possible the Packers are trying to wait until after June 1st to avoid some of the cap hit?
I suppose it’s possible – the article I linked to here yesterday says that, if they wait to trade him until June, they can split the $40 million in dead money over this year and next. But, I also imagine that the odds of them finding a trade partner at that point – after free agency and the draft – are much less. (I’d suspect that they’re looking to get 2023 draft picks as part of the trade.)
It’s the compensation that the Packers are trying to get … The Packers want to move on and have let me know that in so many words,” he said.
What an asshole. Negotiations are in process, and he completely undermines the Packers’ leverage.
The above two items are tit for tat. The Packers are justifiably showing him the door, so Rodgers gets butthurt and lashes out. Of course the Packers should have already priced this into their negotiations. Rodgers has always held all the cards when it comes to trade destinations so nothing here is new.
In other, non-Rodgers news:
The Bucs are signing Baker Mayfield to a one-year contract, to compete with Kyle Trask (the only other quarterback currently on their rosters) for the starting job.
Former No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have reached agreement on a one-year contract worth up to $8.5 million, sources told ESPN.
Is it possible the Packers are trying to wait until after June 1st to avoid some of the cap hit?
This seems logistically problematic. Certainly all parties could agree in principle and behave as if the deal is done, then send in the paperwork in 2.5 months. But that’s a lot of trust/risk there. If something changes, Rodgers gets sick or injured while high, etc. then the Jets are screwed. Also, I think the Packers would be handcuffed in terms of salary cap impact between now and then. Keeping him on their books through June probably means the can’t sign free agents that would put them over the cap (I haven’t looked up exactly how this works during this period, maybe it’s a non-issue so long as they are under the cap after some future date).
I think the biggest issue is the trade compensation. If the Jets are sending 2023 draft picks, they simply can’t wait until June 1.
Is it collusion if 32 teams all do the same common sense thing?
This would be the debate should it end up in court. I don’t think it holds water. The Broncos gave up that many picks and spent that much money on Wilson, an aging QB coming off an iffy season. Two 1sts + a fat contract is easily market-rate for an MVP QB. We can trot out a long list of players with checked injury history who got big deals with big guarantees. The only difference is the 100% guaranteed. And the data supports the argument that a QB, even one who runs, tends to be much less injury prone than almost every other position.
The only difference is the 100% guaranteed. And the data supports the argument that a QB, even one who runs, tends to be much less injury prone than almost every other position.
But the data specific to Jackson shows him ending the last two seasons on the bench. If I’m guaranteeing a QB a quarter of a billion dollars, I want him to be available for playoff games.
Heck, Mahomes is the best QB of his generation and he “only” got $142 million guaranteed.
For what it’s worth.
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I excluded the Mahomes deal from the comps because it’s also an outlier. It’s a 10-year, $450M deal. He clearly preferred the total value over the guarantees. And I think it’s safe to assume that his deal will be renegotiated frequently to add guarantees and lower cap hits.
The Lamar Jackson issue is a no-win situation. He wants guaranteed money because he’s not getting any younger and he has been injured quite a lot. Incentive-laid contracts are risky for him. So he’s demanding a guarantee out of fear that he won’t get paid otherwise.
The reason he wants guaranteed money is the exact reason why teams won’t give it to him. You don’t want all your money tied up in a guy that’s in recovery all season.
If only he could come up with some kind of compromise. Is there some sort of professional that could provide that assistance to him?
He wants guaranteed money
He’s going to get guaranteed money. Every NFL contract has guaranteed money, and top QB contracts have a lot of it – often in nine figures.
What he wants that’s controversial is for 100% of his contract to be guaranteed. AFAIK that’s only been done for two QBs – Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson.
He’s going to get guaranteed money. Every NFL contract has guaranteed money, and top QB contracts have a lot of it – often in nine figures.
Well, no shit. There is no such thing as a contract where you might potentially earn nothing. There are, however, contracts where much or even the majority of the money is tied up in incentives.
What he wants that’s controversial is for 100% of his contract to be guaranteed.
Again, no shit. Otherwise nobody would be talking about this. It’s also why it’s not going over well, and why accusations of “collusion” aren’t holding too much water.
Well, no shit.
Sorry – your previous post talked about guaranteed money like it was something unusual.
FULLY guaranteed money is absolutely unusual, as you pointed out.
The late great half-of-famer “Professor” John Clayton (who I was a huge fan of, RIP) used to say that guaranteed money was what you had to pay attention to when evaluating contracts. People would talk about some blockbuster deal, and he’d point out that the player was unlikely to ever make all of that money. I always keep that in mind if I’m trying to figure out how a player’s salary compares to his peers.