Yeah. This might be the dumbest rule yet.
What actually happened is not important. It was the intention. Really? Making a subjective call like that is idiotic. Do linemen intentionally go offside?
Since 2006, the season opener has had the Super Bowl Winner as the home team, that may be what you’re thinking of. But with a 16 game season, that gave only a 1 in 8 chance that it would work out - the 2 divisions would have to be facing each other, and the winner would have to be the home team. With the 17 game season, it’s closer to a 1/4 chance - either the 2 divisions are playing each other, or the 17th game is between the 2 divisions that the SB teams are in, and most likely they’d play in that case also (that’s why the Pats & Seahawks have a rematch this year). If AI isn’t lying to me, since 2006 these are all the rematches:
2014 Denver at Seattle(W), week 3.
2016 Carolina at Denver(W), week 1.
2022 Rams(W) at Cincinnati, week 3.
2023 Philadelphia at KC(W), week 11.
2025 Philadelphia(W) at KC, week 2.
2026 NE at Seattle(W), week 1.
So 6 rematches, 4 at the winner, 2 of which were Season openers.
We had virtually zero pass rush in the first half. Once we were far enough ahead in the 4th quarter and knew they had to pass, we were markedly better. We need to be ahead by the 4th quarter of games, otherwise it doesn’t bode well for us. I can’t see how we could go 17-0 especially with the brutal schedule we have. I’m thinking 12-5 or 11-6.
It’s the mention of intention that makes things seem silly. But my understanding was always that if the quarterback is in his (forward) throwing motion and gets hit, it’s an incomplete pass regardless of where the ball goes. I have a vague memory of Jimmy Johnson going nuts on the sideline over a similar call years ago, and I’m picturing Jeff Triplette as the ref. But I can’t find anything with a quick search so maybe I’m just wrong - it would have been about 30 years ago after all 
The intentional grounding rule is similarly silly… I mean, it even has “intentional” in the name!
The officials have to determine that a QB is “under pressure”. That is an extremely subjective and ambiguous determination, which requires a degree of prognostication and mind-reading if you want to do it accurately. You have to know he would have been likely to be sacked if he didn’t throw it, and that he felt pressured to get rid of the ball.
It’s Section 8.2 of the rules:
It is a foul for intentional grounding if a passer, facing an imminent loss of yardage because of pressure from the defense, throws a forward pass that is not in the direction and vicinity of an originally eligible offensive receiver.
In the same rule, section 4 of it is in regards to a “Delayed Spike”, and it requires additional mind-reading.
A passer, after delaying his passing action for strategic purposes, is prohibited from throwing the ball to the ground in front of him, even though he is under no pressure from defensive rusher(s).
So the delay must be for “strategic purposes”. I mean, you can guess based on circumstances, but it’s silly to base a rule on something you can’t possible know for sure.
That’s why almost every single game has at least one instance where commentators ask why a flag wasn’t thrown for intentional grounding, or questions why a flag was thrown. Part of the rule is objective, but there are subjective factors that are based solely on what an observing official assumes about the QB’s motives.
I’m not saying it’s impossible to make a reasonable assumption, but it is silly to codify something so ambiguous.
My understanding through years of watching the NFL is that it’s a forward pass if it looks like the ball is being propelled by the throwing motion. For example, if a ball is being moved forward but isn’t yet released, and a defender knocks it sideways out of the grip of the QB before the QB finishes throwing it, that’s a fumble rather than an incomplete pass. It’s usually clear that the ball wasn’t “thrown” if it moves in a direction other than the direction the ball is being thrown in and the ball itself hasn’t deflected off something after leaving the QB’s hand.
But whether the forward motion has taken place is a big part of it. And if the QB is moving the ball forward and his arm gets hit and the ball is knocked loose early and continues in the same trajectory it was moving before the QB is hit, that’s considered a throw even if the QB hadn’t meant to release it and it was just jarred loose.
I’ve watched a lot of slow-motion analyses of these plays and heard the considerations repeatedly, and this seems pretty consistent.
This doesn’t match my understanding or how it has been called in games. I’m pretty sure the criteria was always if the QB’s arm had started the forward throwing motion, it’s incomplete even if it goes backwards.
Here’s a rules video from last year, cued up to 0:37: https://youtu.be/mpt7Zk0E0bw?t=37
On a totally unrelated subject, and also one from the Department of Worthless Statistics:
Hmm, I recall discussions about whether or not the ball was propelled by the QB.
And per this article, I’m probably remembering differently because the rules were changed recently; in 2021, then again in 2022.
It is so hard to keep track sometimes.