There are 13 players who are first-time nominees for the NFL Hall of Fame this year.
Which of them will get in? Not necessarily this time, but eventually.
Strahan, Sapp, Allen, and Ogden. I’m not sure how many kickers are in the HOF. Anderson’s one of the best, so if kickers are common, put him in.
Who will get in, or who should get in?
Who will.
Only one pure kicker is in the Hall – Jan Stenerud. I’d never say never, but enough of the voters seem to be skeptical of the overall impact of kickers and punters on the game, that I think it’ll take a truly extraordinary kicker (or punter) to get in. Vinatieri helped win a couple of Super Bowls; Lechler is rewriting the records for punting…and I’m not sure that they will ever make it in.
Less than half have voted for Larry Allen?
11 time pro bowler who spent most of his career on America’s team, the Cowboys. Won the Superbowl. Member of the all 1990s and all 2000s NFL decade teams. He also built a bit of a legacy for having reportedly bench pressed 700 pounds and squatted 900.
I feel dirty defending a Cowboy, but he’ll make it. And he should. A clear first ballot candidate.
Looks like I voted for the same 4 everyone else did: Strahan, Sapp, Lynch and Ogden. That is based on zero research on stats and such. Anderson is probably deserving, but kickers and punters just don’t get in, for whatever reason. If the poll asked for whom I’d vote, he’d be included.
ETA: Ok, Allen will probably make it, but he fell into the “Who’s that? An offensive lineman? And a guard, to boot?” camp for me. Just didn’t know much about him since he’s not on a team I like and plays pretty much the least glorified position on the field.
Yep, same four I voted for.
I missed Larry Allen’s name on the list; probably would have picked him as well.
I’m not sure why kickers/punters should get such short shrift; it would probably be relatively easy to tally up all the extra points/yards that they gain for their teams, as compared to an average player at their positions. You’d think that it would be within the realm of possibility that they would have more of an impact on the outcome of a game than say a premier offensive lineman would.
Nice to see that my votes are the same as everyone else. Strahan and Allen are definite first balloters. Sapp and Lynch may not be but will get in. I really think Morten Anderson should get in too, but as someone else mentioned upthread, kickers just don’t make it, so I couldn’t vote for him.
Of the rest of the players, I think most of them have no chance. For instance, Priest Holmes just wasn’t good enough for long enough.
John Lynch was a very good safety… hard hitter good tackler… HOF worthy… no…
Same as Art Monk… just a very good player who had a solid career… the Terrell Davis arguement is far more compelling
This is an underwhelming group of first-timers. A lot of VERY good players, including some who’d be worthy Hall of Famers, but there isn’t a single sure-fire, no-brainer, first ballot winner among them.
And that’s good news for numerous well-qualified candidates who’ve been passed over. This year, the Cris Carters who should have been inducted earlier will finally get their chance.
Among the guys on that list, the only one I’m pretty sure WILL be elected eventually is Jonathan Ogden. Michael Strahan, John Lynch and Bryant Young strike me as strong maybes.
Pro Football Reference has a term they call Approximate Value. It’s certainly nowhere near WAR as far as being predictive, but it is an attempt to make a WAR-like stat for pro football. At least, for seasons after 1950. The players in the poll, and their AVs, follow.
Michael Strahan 160
Warren Sapp 149
Morten Anderson N/A
Steve McNair 100
Larry Allen 112
Priest Holmes 83
Sam Adams 76
Ted Washington 91
Bryant Young 90
John Lynch 88
Jonathan Ogden 89
Keenan McCardell 84
Tom Nalen 86
The stat does not rank kickers or punters. I am surprised by how well O-linemen do, as I was expecting them to be barely accounted for. The stat seems to really reward longevity, as Bruce Matthews is their highest rated O-lineman.
There are quite a few kinks to be worked out of the stat. Ffor one, sorting DBs since the merger yields Aeneas Williams with a higher AV, 138, than Ed Reed, 122. I liked Williams as a player, but c’mon. Lynch is 20th on the list, behind Troy Vincent, and ahead of Donnie Shell. YMMV.
My personal ballot is Strahan, Sapp, Anderson, Allen, but then I’m a smaller-NFL Hall guy. You might be able to convince me on McNair.
And something went wrong in between copying to excel and pasting it. Damn it.
I’ll have the actual sorted AVs up in a few minutes. %*()#%!
O.K., I see the F-Up. Weighted career AV is what (I think) I listed. The hyper links are to a list of regular AV, unweighted. Naturally, the play index doesn’t sort by weighted AV.
Disclosure: I was, myself, a kicker (albeit briefly) in high school, and have had a lifelong affection for the kicking game. Thus, I do think that there should be a place in the HoF for premier kickers and punters (for that matter, Steve Tasker probably belongs in there, too). What follows is the reasoning which I’ve seen in print from sportswriters who have been on the selection committee over the years.
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A kicker only participates in something like 12-20 plays per game (extra points, field goal attempts, kickoffs); a punter even fewer. In the minds of some voters, this puts the relative contribution of kicking specialists on a par with specialized pass-rusher, or third-down receiving backs, and we don’t see many of them get into the HoF, either.
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Statisically, there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the best kicking specialists in the game, and the guys who are simply very good. These days, every kicker hits 75-80% of his field goals, and 95% of his extra points; if he doesn’t, he very quickly is looking for work.
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There’s a definite prejudice among players (and, by reflection, writers) against kicking specialists as being “not real football players”. They don’t usually get nearly as involved in the physical aspect of the game (if your kicker or punter is frequently involved in tackles, you have a lot of other problems), and they often tend to be loners during team practices, due to the nature of their jobs.
O.K., this one should be correct. It lists Weighted and Unweighted Career AV
Player Weighted AV Career AV
Michael Strahan 121 160
Warren Sapp 117 149
Morten Anderson N/A N/A
Steve McNair 100 126
Larry Allen 85 112
Priest Holmes 83 93
Sam Adams 76 99
Ted Washington 91 123
Bryant Young 90 119
John Lynch 88 116
Jonathan Ogden 89 115
Keenan McCardell 84 112
Tom Nalen 86 112
Bah, my type-setting sucks. I trust you all get the idea.
Has anyone yet broken out the list by number of All-Pro teams? Is that a worthy metric for comparison?
Figured I’d just do it myself. List is in no order, showing player, 1st-Team AP All-Pro selections, 2nd-Team AP All-Pro, and Pro Bowls, for shits and giggles.
Player 1st 2nd Pro Bowl
Michael Strahan 4 2 7
Warren Sapp 4 2 7
Morten Anderson 3 2 7
Steve McNair 0 1 3
Larry Allen 6 1 11
Priest Holmes 3 0 3
Sam Adams 0 1 3
Ted Washington 1 1 4
Bryant Young 1 3 4
John Lynch 2 2 9
Jonathan Ogden 4 5 11
Keenan McCardell 0 0 2
Tom Nalen 2 1 5
Seems I was remiss in not adding Ogden to my ballot. Man, Priest Holmes was unbelievably great for three years, wasn’t he?
The following is a preliminary attempt to address a kicker’s/punter’s qualifications.
I’ll go with Shane Lechler first, since he pretty clearly has been the best punter for the past dozen years or so. He has a gross average for his career of 47.6 yards, in a league which has averaged around 43.5 yards/punt (later I could do net yards, if I can find a comprehensive source of same-Football Reference for some odd reason doesn’t have that). He averages about 5 punts per game. so that would be worth about +20 yards per game more than an average punter, which admittedly doesn’t sound like much, but if you go in and do a similar analysis for running backs, a punter starts to look pretty good:
A typical top rusher averages around 20 attempts per game. Assume he also is averaging exactly +1 more yards per attempt than an average RB (which will typically have him in the low 5’s): that’s +20 yards above average per game too. But you have to divvy up the responsibility for that amongst his blockers and teammates, so at this point the punter, based solely on his own efforts, seems to be helping his team gain more yards.
Placekickers: NFL teams average 30 FG attempts per season. Average kickers now are successful on c. 82-83% of their attempts: the best kickers in the league are usually in the low 90’s. Thus on average the best kickers would appear to make around 3 more kicks per season (9 points, about a half-point per game). I’m not sure how yards translate into points, but on this score at least PKers don’t seem to have a huge effect on their team’s scores, simply because even the average ones make most of theirs. In earlier seasons, the spread between average and the best in any given season often could be (and was) greater, making a premier kicker such as Morten Andersen more valuable (upwards of +1 more points per game).
Like I said, preliminary-feel free to quibble with my analysis, or add your own.