NFL offseason 2018

Yeah that was a nasty injury. The kind you can usually come back from but still, he’s not as young as he used to be.

I could understand what the Browns were doing up to this point. Shelton isn’t a bad DT, so they must feel like they’re pretty deep at the position to unload him AND a draft pick for a pick next year.

Or else they’re clearing cap space for now, and don’t think they’ll be competitive during the term of his contract. Unlikely they’re getting rid of a clubhouse headache, given that it’s the Pats, but it’s happened before.

The Fins are releasing Ndamukong Suh, who may be just about done anyway.

Suh had another great season and has shown little to no drop off. PFF has his last three years as the three highest rated in his career. Releasing him now isn’t about him being anywhere near “done”, it’s about dealing with his massive contract (his cap number is $26 million this year) and creating cap room (they can save $17 million in cap space by releasing him).

Bengals to trade the Bills for LT Cordy Glenn. Bills get Bengals 12th 1st round pick in this draft, Bengals get their 21st. They also swap 5th (Bills to Bengals) and 6th round picks (opposite).

Bengals cap hit for Glenn this season is just over 11 million. It will be worth it…IF he can stay healthy.

They tried to shop him at the deadline last year too. There must be some concerns with him either in the locker room or with his long term health and the Browns want to get something for him instead of just cutting him outright. He’s not useless, but he’s also probably not worth the money if he’s a declining asset which is why they had to package a pick this year to offload him.

Supposedly Allen Robinson is going to the Bears.

Awesome news. This is the guy I’ve been fantasizing about all offseason. I love his game, the size and the ability to compete for the ball. Great fit on the Bears and suddenly a Bears WR corps of Robinson, Meredith, White and Bellamy (and hopefully Wright and Inman) is legitimately useful and potentially scary. The biggest red flag of course is that those first 3 guys are all coming off season ending injuries (White x 3).

No idea what the contract looks like, but the Bears have a ton to spend and aren’t usually guilty of creating cap problems in future years.

Lots of think pieces circulated in the last week or two about which WR was the cream of the crop and people have made some pretty sound arguments that AR15 is a one-year wonder and that Watkins is actually the real deal, but just based on my own personal eye-test Watkins never once scared me as an opponent. He’s a home run hitter that disappears and misses easy balls, doesn’t move the chains and doesn’t help you in the red zone. Watkins is a between the 20’s guy, Robinson is a whole field guy. Hope I’m right and Robinson is more than a Bortles garbage-time player, I really think he is. If anything Jacksonville has held him back.

(bolding mine)

Heh I thought you were describing Torrey Smith.

Reporting 3 years, $42M. $14M per. Steep but short, and not out of line with what other WR1s are getting. Same salary as Demaryius and Dez, little more than Alshon and TY. Can’t complain too much especially if you’re getting the consensus top FA WR on the market on the first day of free agency. If he’s 2015 AR15, it’s a steal, if he’s 2016 AR15 it’s a bust.

I literally almost made that comp as I was posting it. But decided not to because Watkins is better than Torrey, he can run more routes.

Since I’m awake and posting about free agency, the other big news tonight is that Case Keenum is likely going to Denver to try and make people forget about the Paxton Lynch pick.

No numbers on this one yet, and that will ultimately tell the story. I’m pretty skeptical on Keenum being the next Brad Johnson, or whichever late bloomer you like. But I’m also a little leery of Kirk Cousins for reasons I can’t articulate so if Keenum costs half as much I probably would prefer it if I’m a Broncos fan. I still think they draft a QB.

I think Keenum had a Derek Anderson type year that he won’t replicate, and that Cousins is asking for WAAAAAY too much money for an average QB.

Because he’s better than an average QB. Over the last three years, he’s got a 67.8 completion rate, threw for 12,121 yards, with 73 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. His passer rating over that time has him 6th, behind only Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Wilson. His adjusted net yards has him 4th best. He can make all the throws, he had success behind an atrocious offensive line, and can make plays with his legs (3rd most rushing TD’s among NFL QB’s). He’s much better than the slag heap of Eli’s or Flaccos or Carrs who have broken the banks before him.

I don’t think Cousins is all that great either, but you look around the league and he’s definitely in the top half. Worth the kind of money he’s likely to get? I don’t know. People want to say you can only get so far without a QB, but look at the Vikings and Eagles from this past season. You can overcome an average QB with a really good team around him.

I completely agree that the value of even mediocre QB’s is insane. But I also think the value of elite QB’s is worth it. The question will be does Cousins have the chance to be elite. I think he does, but would I be willing to bet $29-$30 million a year on it? I’m not sure. He’s certainly proven that he can be good, and he’s only 29, so there could a decade of use for him. Considering Jimmy Garoppolo is currently the highest paid player in the NFL, and he’s got a whopping 7 games starting under his belt, you know someone is going to pay him.

Well, it’s an incentive laden deal, so they won’t be out big money if he flops.

In perhaps the least surprising free agency news, Drew Brees just signed a 2 year deal with the Saints.

No doubt. The Patriots are a prime example. With a modest corps of wide receivers, an oft injured tight end, and a defensive that was average at best, they managed to get to the Super Bowl and give a Philadelphia team that was much stronger overall a run for their money.

The NFL is totally a “QB-centric” league.

True, an elite QB does matter. But Philly won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles.