Sorry for dropping that ball last week. The volume of Saturday games caught me off guard and the holidays took up an awful lot of time. I guessing you folks were out of touch most of the time anyways, so I’m sure everyone survived. Would have been nice to not miss a week, especially one as critical to the postseason as last week, but I guess we’ll just have to use that to refocus and power through the playoffs strong. I’m going to start a Playoffs thread on Sunday that will hopefully be ongoing through the Super Bowl
Many of these games are totally irrelevant and it’s unclear who will play and how much focus the coaches have on winning, so I’ll gloss over some of those games quickly.
Saturday, Dec. 31
**SAN DIEGO 11 Denver 43½ **
This game is being played for pride only. SD is out and Denver has locked up the first round bye and the second seed. Historically Shanahan has rested stars in these situations and this week will be no different. The point spread reflects this. I’m not sure what to make of the Chargers. They’ve let down on a number of occasions this season and I wouldn’t be amazed to see them quit this week too. Denver’s got such a deep backfield that no matter which guy gets the snaps they’ll keep them in the game. We might see Phillip Rivers in this game as well. I’m taking the points, but I wouldn’t wager on it.
The pick: Broncos, Under
**NY Giants 9 OAKLAND 42 **
It’s a convoluted situation for the Giants, but they are definitely in the playoffs. Essentially they are playing for homefield advantage. Still, they are facing a Norv Turner team that’s imploded completely. I can’t envision a scenario in which they come out ready to play Saturday.
The Pick: Giants, Under
Sunday, Jan. 1
**INDIANAPOLIS 6½ Arizona 43 **
Here’s a really weird game. The Colts do need to get some sense of direction before the playoffs. I’m not a big fan of resting players when you’re staring a bye week right in the face. Still, you can’t have Edge and Peyton out there for 40 snaps. The Colts are pretty banged up and the Dungy situation can’t be under-estimated. On the other side of the ball the Cardinals have one of the few offenses that can hope to keep pace with the Colts, and with the Colts D likely to be getting healthy they just might have a shot.
The Pick: Cards, Over
**Baltimore 3 CLEVELAND 37 **
The Ravens have certainly looked frisky the last couple weeks. Cleveland has looked very not frisky, and I think that Boller, playing with his back against the wall, just might be getting it together. I might not be a mirage. Who knows, but he’s certainly going to stress out the personel guys in the offseason.
The Pick: Ravens, Over
**Buffalo 1½ NY JETS 38 **
Wow, if Houston wins and Green Bay and New Orleans win, the Jets will get Reggie Bush! See, I’m really struggling to find a reason to give a rats ass about this game. I’ll take the Bills just because.
The Pick: ** Bills, Under**
**Carolina 4 ATLANTA 42 **
The Falcons have nothing at stake except the joy of playing the spoiler to the Panthers. Vick has owned the Panthers winning 5 of 7 against them, but things feel different this year, Vick hasn’t been magic and the Panthers have been atypically soft in the trenches. I think the end result this meeting with the desperation the Panthers need to play with will be a Carolina win. The Falcons defense hasn’t been good at all, and Delhomme, Smith and Foster need to play like their hair is on fire. Steve Smith has been ferocious this season, and after getting tossed last week he’ll have an even sharper edge. I expect him to will a victory.
The Pick: Panthers, Under
**MINNESOTA 4½ Chicago 35 **
The Bears have nothing to play for and desperately need to get healthy. They, like the Colts, would benefit from a tune-up game before the bye week but they are totally tattered on the defensive side of the ball. They haven’t played well defensively over the last 3 games and I hope they are able to get back to fundamentals this week. Tackling needs to improve, special teams, especially punting, needs to improve and the receivers CANNOT drop passes. I’M LOOKING AT YOU MOOSE! If you’re going to be barking at QBs you’d damn well better be holding up your end. The Vikings are a mystery. I have little doubt that they’d love to beat the Bears this week and we’ve struggled historically in the dome. Grossman needs to get enough snaps to continue getting his timing down, so I don’t expect the offense to be too depleted. Still, this will be a difficult game to win. I’ll take the points anyways.
The Pick: Bears, Over
**KANSAS CITY 7½ Cincinnati 46 **
The Chiefs have a glimmer of hope and in a strange tie-breaker twist they need the Chargers to lose to the Broncos this wee along with a Steeler loss. It’ll be interesting to see what Marvin Lewis does going into this playoff game. Cincy isn’t used to this type of prep. The Chiefs still have that December winning streak going for them, and Vermeil is probably going to have his guys playing high on emotion. That’s just the kind of guy he is. It’s probably his last regular season game as a coach so don’t think KC won’t be milking that motivation for all its worth. Normally a TD+ would be more than I want to give to a good offense like the Bengals but I think the Cheifs win big here.
The Pick: Chiefs, Over
**PITTSBURGH 13½ Detroit 35 **
The Chiefs really have to be bummed out when they look up at the schedule and see this match up. They are counting on the Lions to help them out. The team that might be playing worse than any other team right now. Just depressing.
Just for fun, read this entertaining snippet from the Sports Guy’s picks column on ESPN.com
The Pick: Steelers, Under
**NEW ENGLAND 5½ Miami 37½ **
Miami has been playing damn well and the Pats will be resting everyone who needs it. I’m frankly surprised to see that the Pats are so heavily favored. I must be missing something.
The Pick: Dolphins, Over
**TAMPA BAY 13½ New Orleans 37½ **
With a Saints loss and Texans win the Saints improbably sneak into the Reggie Bush prize. I think I predicted that they’d get him back in around week 9. Good times. Either way I almost assure you they’d trade that pick and stick with Deuce and stock up elsewhere. Worth watching anyways. Almost a 2 TD spread here, that’s pretty surprising and scary from a gamblers point of view. Tampa needs a win for homefield and the divisional title, there’s no way they lose this game but the question is if they blow them out or not. I’m inclined to think they do, Gruden strikes me as the type to run it up in a meaningless game.
The Pick: Bucs, Over
**Houston Texans 2 SAN FRANCISCO 37½ **
Here it is, the most exciting game of the day! You think I’m kidding? Sure there are some games with playoff implications, but in all those cases it against a team that’s either out of it or locked into its position. This is simply the game to watch. I think both teams play hard too. SF doesn’t have a realistic shot at Bush anymore, and the Texans have been playing pretty solid as of late. I’ve said all season they are better than their record indicates. You think Domanick Davis isn’t playing his ass off to protect his job? They are another team that may consider moving the pick for a big package if they get it. In the end, I like the Texans chances and I expect them to dominate this game.
The Pick: Texans, Over
**JACKSONVILLE 3 Tennessee 38 **
I have no idea. Really I don’t. It Jags are one-and-done no matter what they do and are locked into their position. The Titans have been an enigma for me all season. Flip a coin.
The Pick: Jags, Under
**GREEN BAY 4½ Seattle 39 **
The Packers have a slim chance at Reggie Bush and yes, I’m still scared of that prospect. The Packers played the Bears pretty tough last week and could very well upset the Seahawks second stringers here. Favre is up in the air on his plans for next season and as a result I think the possibility of it being the end of the road will motivate everyone involved. Interesting that Holmgren and Hasselbeck will be making the trip to Lambeau for what could be his last game. Personally I want him to come back. The longer he sticks around, the longer it’ll be before the Packers are a real threat to the Bears. The Pack are definitely a better team next year with him, but are .500 at best. Sherman has been the worst thing that’s ever happened to Favre.
The Pick: Packers, Over
**Washington 7½ PHILADELPHIA 37 **
I haven’t watched much of the Eagles, but I have seen the Redskins. They look really scary. I really want the Eagles to win this one and get the Redskins out of the Bears path. Seems like a long shot though.
The Pick: Redskins, Under
DALLAS 12 St. Louis 43½
Both teams are falling apart, but the Cowboys have something to play for. They need a win to get in, and they are the team I most want to see in the playoffs since the Bears would crush them. It’s a long shot since I don’t see any of the NFC hopefuls getting upset, but they need to take care of their own business. Being the late game, everything could be decided making this game meaningless, but we’ll have to wait and see. It certainly makes it hard to predict. The bigger story is that we’ll finally be rid of the misery that is listening to Paul Maguire announce a primetime NFL game. Hallelujah!
Who’s in (NFC): Seattle, Chicago, New York, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Washington
Who’s in (AFC): Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh
See ya next year!: Dallas, Kansas City
Draft Order: New Orleans, New York, Houston, San Francisco
